Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Sam Darnold
QB Sam Darnold (New York Jets) | 3rd Year
2019 Stats: 3,024 passing yards, 19 TD, 13 INT; 62 rushing yards, 2 TD
Sam Darnold had a perfectly ordinary start to the 2019 season, completing 28 of 41 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. But as a Week 2 Monday night game against the Cleveland Browns neared, word of a mononucleosis diagnosis surfaced and he missed three games with the ailment.
Darnold returned to action in Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys. Inflated by a 92-yard touchdown to Robby Anderson, Darnold threw for 338 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the game. Then came the “seeing ghosts” Week 7 Monday night game against the New England Patriots (11-for-32 for 86 yards with four interceptions), followed by a pretty erratic outing against the Jacksonville Jaguars (218 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT).
Over the final nine games in 2019 (Week 9-17), Darnold completed just over 62 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He was QB10 in fantasy over that span.
Darnold didn’t fully exploit a stretch of favorable matchups last year, as he had the Dolphins (twice), the Giants, the Redskins, the Raiders and the Bengals from Week 9-14. But he was still QB8 in fantasy over that stretch. If you tack on a two-touchdown game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15, he had multiple passing touchdowns in four of five games from Week 11-15 and was QB9 over that expanded Week 9-15 stretch.
If not for a fade in Week 16 and Week 17, albeit against the stout defenses of the Pittsburgh Steelers (183 yards, 1 TD) and the Bills (199 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), Darnold would have been entrenched in the top-10 of fantasy quarterbacks over the second half of the season.
The Jets added much-needed pieces to the offensive line this offseason, headlined by No. 11 overall pick left tackle Mekhi Becton. Second-round pick Denzel Mims will bolster the wide receiver group, with a free agency swap of Anderson for Breshad Perriman to go with Jamison Crowder. If tight end Chris Herndon can keep himself on the field this year, Ryan Griffin had a solid showing in his place to form a good duo.
Darnold turned 23 on June 5, so he will still be one of the youngest projected starting quarterbacks in the NFL this year. The cloud of Adam Gase lingers over him, but the stars are otherwise aligned for Darnold to have his best season. As for a breakout, into top-12 fantasy quarterback territory, I think he falls short based on six games against tough defenses in the AFC East.
2020 Projection: 3,750 passing yards, 25 TD, 15 INT; 70 rushing yards, 2 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 25%
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