Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: T.J. Hockenson

TE T.J. Hockenson (Detroit Lions) | 2nd Year

2019 Stats: 32 receptions for 367 yards, 2 TD

The Detroit Lions drew some ire for taking T.J. Hockenson eighth overall in the 2019 draft. Then the rookie tight end out of Iowa delivered big in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals, with six receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown. But that was the clear peak of his season.

After a couple of dismal games, Hockenson left Week 4 with a concussion and a shoulder issue. Both issues put him on the injury report in subsequent weeks, but it took an ankle injury on Thanksgiving to cost Hockenson games and ultimately end his season.

After that explosion in Week 1, Hockenson topped 50 yards once and he did not top five catches in a game again until his last game against the Bears in Week 13.

An easy way to explain any Lions’ pass catcher’s drop-off in 2019 is to tie him to quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford played eight games before a back injury sidelined him for the season, making for convenient with/without splits for someone like Kenny Golladay.

But that doesn’t apply to Hockenson. He he played eight games with Stafford, then three with Jeff Driskel and one with David Blough, with a six-target game from Driskel (Week 10) and a season-high 11 targets from Blough on Thanksgiving.

It would have been nice to see Hockenson be more involved in 2019, but he was down the pecking order and was consistently banged up. All seven of his red zone targets came in the first five games (Stafford starts, obviously), but only four of Detroit’s 42 throws inside the 10-yard line (second-most in the league if they’d been thrown by one quarterback, h/t to Rotoballer) went Hockenson’s direction.

With Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola as the Lions’ top three wide receivers, target volume will be a thing for Hockenson. But a dive in Rotowire’s alignment data shows something interesting.

Of his 522 snaps last year, Hockenson lined up in the slot (right and left) 188 times (36 percent). Here is his production from each spot.

Right Slot: 8 receptions for 117 yards, 2 TD
Left Slot: 10 receptions for 80 yards

So 56 percent of Hockenson’s catches and 54 percent of his yards for the season came on 36 percent of his snap deployment. Yes being banged up for a majority of the season has to be noted, as does the quarterback situation. But it seems natural that Hockenson will be used out of the slot more this year with Stafford healthy and no restrictions on the Lions’ offense.

Last month, Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said Hockenson was running routes but his ankle might not be 100 percent. So during whatever shape training camp or preseason takes, that is something to keep an eye on.

Darrell Bevell says TJ Hockenson (ankle) is back running and running routes but might not be quite 100% yet. Adds he’s “well on his way to being there” and that the Lions are comfortable with his progress.

— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurkeNFL) June 17, 2020

Hockenson sits with an ADP of TE15 (pick 13.03) in 12-team full PPR and TE16 (pick 13.01) in 12-team standard league right now, via Fantasy Football Calculator. TE15 in full PPR last year was Jack Doyle (43 receptions for 448 yards, 4 TD). Hockenson missed four games and was banged up in several others, and he still came in just 11 catches and 81 yards shy of Doyle’s numbers.

As long as he’s healthy, Hockenson is a shoo-in to outperform his ADP if it stays in the range it’s in right now. Those that wait to draft a tight end will have him on their radar. A TE1 (top-12) breakthrough is well within the cards, with potential to outproduce my projection by a fair chunk.

2020 Projection: 56 receptions for 630 yards, 5 TD

Breakout Confidence: 65%

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