Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Where’s the ceiling for Rashod Bateman?

WR Rashod Bateman (BALT)

2021 Stats: 46 receptions for 515 yards, 1 TD

Rashod Bateman’s rookie season started off on the wrong foot, as a preseason groin injury cost him the first five games of the season. In the 12 games he played, he had at least six targets seven times and over 50 yards/double-digit PPR fantasy points five times. He also did not see an 80 percent snap share until Week 15, and he only had seven games with Lamar Jackson.

On the first night of the draft in April, the Ravens surprisingly traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals. With him went his 146 targets from last year, albeit in a Baltimore offense that tilted more toward the pass than normal due to injuries at running back and on defense. But there’s a serious void, and barring a late signing like Julio Jones Bateman is clearly Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver now.

With Jackson being a more effective passer between the hashes, perimeter speedsters like Brown can struggle to produce consistently. Bateman is not a vertical burner, but he is a good all-around receiver (size, good route runner, excellent hands, YAC ability). He was 26th in win rate against man coverage last year, according to Player Profiler, and Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception” charting was high on his work too. (h/t to Fantasy Pros).

“Per Matt Harmon’s amazing #ReceptionPerception work, Bateman’s success rate was in the 85th percentile against zone coverage and 81st percentile versus press. Per Harmon’s findings, Bateman finished with a 73.7% success rate or higher on six of the 10 route types charted.”

The fresh news that Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins may not be ready for Week 1 maintains a question mark in the Baltimore backfield, and Gus Edwards is also coming back from a torn ACL. So a total return to the run-heaviest offense in the NFL may not be easy to pull off, early in the season anyway.

Bateman has consistently said he’s ready to stake his claim to the WR1 role for the Ravens. It’s safe to assume last season’s groin injury remained a bit of thing even when he was able to play, so better health is in store.

Right now, Bateman is coming in at WR38 in Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data (12-team, full PPR). Getting a team’s No. 1 wide receiver around pick 100 in a 12-team draft is rare. From a pure breakout potential perspective, few receivers around have the opportunity in front of them Bateman does.

100-120 targets looks like the starting point for Bateman this year, with the high-end of that range or a bit more possible. Everything else will come from that, and it feels impossible he won’t offer a nice return on a draft investment if that WR3-range ADP holds. A low-end WR2 finish is where I’m projecting him, but there’s upside for more-maybe way more.

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Projection: 82 receptions for 965 yards, 6 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 82%

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