Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Will Fuller

WR Will Fuller (Houston Texans) | 5th Year

2019 Stats: 49 receptions for 670 yards, 3 TD

Before we go too far, let’s look at Will Fuller’s week-to-week rundown in 2019.

Week 1: two catches (on three targets) for 69 yards
Week 2: four catches (on seven targets) for 40 yards
Week 3: five catches (on seven targets) for 51 yards
Week 4: three catches (on six targets) for 23 yards
Week 5: 14 catches (on 16 targets) for 217 yards, three touchdowns
Week 6: five catches (on nine targets) for 44 yards
Week 7: one catch (on one target) for six yards
Week 8: Out
Week 9: Out
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: Out
Week 12: seven catches (on 11 targets) for 140 yards
Week 13: one catch (on two targets) for eight yards
Week 14: Out
Week 15: five catches (on seven targets) for 61 yards
Week 16: two catches (on two targets) for 11 yards
Week 17: Out
Divisional Round: five catches (on eight targets) for 89 yards

Fuller set career-highs for catches (49) and yards (670) last year. But 21 of those catches and 357 yards came in two games, and all three of his touchdowns came in that huge Week 5 game against the Atlanta Falcons. Going a little deeper, 57 of his 71 targets came in six games, with 14 in the other five he played. Of course, he also missed five games to give himself a tally of 20 missed games over the last three seasons.

The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason. Over the last five seasons, here are the target shares he posted.
2019: 28.9 percent
2018: 32.9 percent
2017: 33.7 percent
2016: 26.2 percent
2015: 31.3 percent

Hopkins also had at least 150 targets in all five of those seasons. Trade acquisition Brandin Cooks will fill some targets, as will free agent signing Randall Cobb. But Fuller still has an opportunity in front of him, and his positive effect on Deshaun Watson is pretty dramatic.

Via Ian Hartitz of Rotoworld:
Watson with Fuller (22 games): 2.27 TD/game, 0.91 INT, 276.5 yards, 8.72 yards per attempt
Watson without Fuller (16 games): 1.31 TD/game, 0.56 INT, 227.1 yards, 7.16 yards per attempt

Fuller has 100 or more yards in a game eight times in his career. He started his career with back-to-back 100-yard games in 2016, and he also went back-to-back over 100 yards in his first two games in 2018. The other six follow-ups to a 100-yard game have gone like this: 31 yards, 32 yards, 49 yards (with a touchdown), Out (missed the rest of the season-2018), 44 yards and eight yards. Bump down to 80 or more yards and one more game is tacked on, but the follow-up was also ugly (one catch for four yards).

Any projection for Fuller has to have a missed game or two (or more) built in. Add in his boom-or-bust track record, which was never worse than it was last year in the wake of Week 5, and you’re just about guaranteed to have him in your fantasy lineups the wrong week.

Fuller’s value is not as good in PPR formats, and his ADPs (WR28, pick 6.02 in 12-team standard, WR35, pick 8.02 in full PPR) reflect it. But you’ll have to buy into his upside to even remotely target him in drafts, and the floor every week as well as for the season is low, low, low, low, low (channeling Flo Rida).

2020 Projection: 50 receptions for 710 yards, 3 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 8%

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