After a productive college career at Utah, the Buffalo Bills took Zack Moss in the third round of the 2020 draft. He joined Devin Singletary in the Buffalo backfield, catching a touchdown in Week 1 while splitting carries nearly evenly with Singletary over the first two games (17, to 19 for Singletary).
Then Moss missed three games with a toe issue, and was eased back in to action when he returned (13 snaps in Week 6). Starting in Week 7, he had at least 48 total yards in four of his next five games with three rushing scores over a two-week span (Week 8-9). After a rough game in Week 13, he had at least 12 carries in three straight games from Week 14-16 as he out-carried Singletary 38-25 over that span.
Moss seemed set to continue his takeover of the Bills’ backfield in the playoffs. Then he suffered an ankle injury in the Wild Card Round against Indianapolis, and missed the rest of Buffalo’s run. All indications are he’s good to go after January surgery, and The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia pointed to Moss possibly taking over as the Bills’ No. 1 back this year with mention of a 70 percent snap share.
After being one of the run-heaviest offenses in the NFL in 2019, the Bills were top half of the league in passing rate last year. That is not going to change in 2021, with a deep group of wide receivers and Josh Allen proving he was up to the task. Matt Breida was also signed in free agency to bring another body to the running back rotation.
For some fantasy managers, the Bills’ backfield will be one to avoid in drafts this year. For others, there will be a profit opportunity. Singletary might be the target there, with an ADP of RB42 (pick 9.05) in 12-team PPR right now (Fantasy Football Calculator). The buzz heading toward training camp suggests Breida is hardly a lock to make the roster, which says it all about his role if he does make it to Week 1 as a Bill.
Then there’s Moss, with a bigger share of red zone work last year than you might think. Per Rotowire, his 29 red zone carries (in 13 games) was good for a 34.5 percent team share. He also matched Allen with 15 carries inside the 10-yard line (according to Pro Football Reference). He has untapped potential as a goal line guy (36 touchdowns over his last three seasons at Utah) and pass catcher (13.9 yards per catch in his final college season).
Looking back at ADP, Moss comes in at RB38 (pick 8.03) in 12-team PPR (via Fantasy Football Calculator). He’s coming in as RB37 in 12-team standard scoring (Singletary is RB38 there).
There are a lot of reasons to hammer the brakes on Moss’ breakout potential this year. But with what I wrote here in mind, this nugget caught my eye.
If you are in on Clyde Edwards-Helaire at value, a similar process should put you in on Zack Moss.
Moss is similar to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, including a path to being the lead back in a top-end offense this year. Edwards-Helaire’s path is easier, all the way to being a legit candidate to finish as the RB1 in fantasy this year. But Moss is a RB3 by ADP who’s floor is lined up to be a RB2 finish. To get a piece of Buffalo’s offense at a cheaper rate than Allen, Stefon Diggs, etc., Moss is solid mid-round target in fantasy drafts. I’m being conservative with my projection, but 1,200 total yards and double-digit touchdowns is not out of the question here. That would be a fully-fleshed out breakout, and a RB1 finish. Flip a coin with a hint of optimism, and there’s the chance it happens.
2021 Projection: 185 carries for 815 yards, 7 TD; 25 receptions for 183 yards
Breakout Confidence Level: 53%
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