Fantasy Football: Death of the Vulture, Rise of the Konami

Fantasy football quietly lost a feared monster this year.  The Konami Quarterback silently crept in front of our eyes, striking swiftly and ruthlessly.  The vanquished foe disappeared and along with it a key piece of desperate roster construction.  The vulture goal-line back was dead, swallowed by a leveled-up Konami QB.

You already know the Konami QB math. 40 rushing yards equal 100 passing yards, that ratio grows exponentially, yadda yadda yadda.  The league has seen an influx of young quarterbacks who will fearlessly scramble, racking up precious rushing points.  Despite that influx of QBs, rush yards by a QB have remained pretty static, accounting for between 11-15% of total rushing yards over the last 5 years.  A rising tide raised all ships.  However, where those QB attempts have been used has seen a dramatic shift.

It has become a near-weekly tradition, a casual mention at the end of the liquid cocaine football injection that is Redzone.  Scott Hansen says “We saw a record number of TDs this week!” and we retreat into our post-coital football comas.  TDs were way up in 2020, totaling 1,473, an increase of 141.  Offenses were more efficient, a side-effect of quiet stadiums, improved offensive communication, and continuing trends towards offensive efficiency.   

The common refrain is “it’s a passing league” and the annual single-season TD record assault supports that claim (seriously, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs, the reaction was a “yawn, he had a good year”).  But passing TDs as a percentage of total touchdowns declined in 2020, coming in at 59% of total TDs, the lowest since 2012.  Rushing TDs saw a huge increase, the effect was particularly magnified when it came to red-zone offense.

The previous three seasons, approximately 48% of red-zone plays were rushing attempts.  In 2020 that flipped to 51%, an increase of 358.  Allow me to emphasize. A 358 CARRY INCREASE!  For reference, 358 carries would be the 2^nd highest career total for Derrick Henry and more than Ezekiel Elliott’s career high.  But this is an article on rushing QBs, where’s the relevance?

	Pass Attempts	Rush Attempts	Total	Pass %	Rush %
2017	2,043	1,915	3,958	51.62%	48.38%
2018	2,171	2,022	4,193	51.78%	48.22%
2019	2,237	2,046	4,283	52.23%	47.77%
2020	2,275	2,404	4,679	48.62%	51.38%
	Red-Zone Play Calls

In 2019 an interesting trend emerged.  Leaguewide TD success rate inside the 5 for QBs was 57.69%.  For comparison purposes, the RB success rate was closer to 46%.  The league took notice, after QB attempted inside the 5 topped out at 78 in 2019, that number spiked to 130 in 2020.  Again, repeating for emphasis, QB attempts inside the 5 nearly doubled with 52 more attempts.  The success rate?  It remained, at 57.69%, but the success rate for RBs dropped, closer to 43%.  The Konami QBs swallowed up goal-line carries. Look no further than Taysom Hill and Jacoby Brissett’s usage to demonstrate teams without rushing QBs are desperately seeking this edge. 

		2020				2019				2018
	Attempts	TDs	TD Success		Attempts	TDs	TD Success		Attempts	TDs	TD Success
QBs	130	75	57.69%		78	45	57.69%		83	39	46.98%
	19%	24%			14%	17%			15%	16%
Other	557	236	42.37%		474	220	46.41%		458	212	46.28%
	81%	76%			86%	83%			85%	84%
	Rushing Attempts Inside the 5

The principle is simple, a hat on a hat football combined with a passing threat puts tremendous stress on the defense.  As players have trended towards bigger/stronger/faster, space in traditional goal line formations shrunk, combined with a goal-line back as an obvious tell, coaches have opted towards carrying their spread formation through the red-zone. The results are staggering.  Nine QBs exceeded five rushing TDs (Cam / Kyler / Taysom / Josh Allen / Tannehill / Lamar / Wentz / Herbert / Bridgewater) and notably absent from that list were Mahomes, Dak, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Jalen Hurts.  Compare that to just three who exceeded the number in 2019.  I have seen posts on Twitter saying “Did I imagine it, or did top QBs matter more?”.  You are not imagining.  Teams are trending toward giving valuable goal-line rushes to their QBs and the Konami effect is particularly magnified with rushing TDs typically worth two more points than passing.

There are two outliers for non-Konami’s who averaged near the mid-20s weekly: Rodgers and Brady.  As previously mentioned, Rodgers set a career-high with 48 TDs, equaling Dan Marino’s record that stood for 23 years.  Meanwhile, Brady’s 40 TDs were the 2^nd highest in his career, they came on 51 red-zone attempts, his most since 2011.  Without the Konami impact, you are hoping for a Hall of Fame record level season just to get in a top 12 QB1 conversation. 

How do we put this into action?  First, I see too many older RBs going before young Konami QBs in start-up drafts.  There are seven QBs I would select in a start-up before another position.  With potential Konami QBs in Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance coming into the league, that number could continue to grow.  Second, if anyone is looking to move these assets, aggressively attack.

The growing trend in goal-line usage could quickly expand the ~10 points weekly difference Mahomes or Kyler Murray represents over former “passable” QBs like Kirk Cousins. This is doubled in a Superflex league when you can start two.  More troubling to these older QBs is the Taysom-Brissett packages.  Could we see the continued rise of Vulture QBs siphoning points?  The choice is simple, Konami, or Death.