Fantasy Football: The All-Overrated Team

All-Overrated Team

Every year in fantasy football we hit a point where we see players average draft position skyrocket and there is no good reason behind it. Last year we had Terrelle Pryor and Isaiah Crowell letting us down with their lofty third and fourth round average draft positions, We’ve had other guys like Ameer Abdullah who have had us all fooled for years. What I want to do is spot some of the guys who could be on the verge of letting the fantasy community down this year. So without further ado the All-Overrated Team.

**no rookies will be included in this list** *All ADP is based on Fantasy Pro’s consensus redraft ADP*

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Quarterback – Jimmy Garoppolo

Average Draft Position 86 Overall/ QB9

Jimmy Garoppolo is coming into the 2017 season trying to keep the tradition of excellence of former Tom Brady backups alive. Following in the footsteps of Matt Cassel, Jimmy Garoppolo has left the comfort of New England for an enormous contract (5yr/$137,500,000) and a spot as the face of the franchise in San Francisco.  In 5 seasons in the NFL, Jimmy G has amassed 12 touchdowns which are getting him drafted above other proven fantasy commodities like Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, and Phillip Rivers all who have thrown more touchdowns last season than Garoppolo has games played in his career.

The upside is there, but so are a lot of question marks with it. While he did throw for 260 yards per game last season, Jimmy G had seven touchdowns with five interceptions. Giving him a TD/INT Ratio of 1.4 which had him ranked 28th in the league right behind Eli Manning and Blake Bortles. While interceptions normally aren’t a backbreaker in fantasy it limits potential upside. The only quarterback ones to post QB/INT ratio’s under 2.0 are Cam Newton and Dak Prescott who bring a ridiculous amount of rushing upside to the position that counteracts that. As we know Garoppolo isn’t much of a runner averaging 1.7 yards per attempt across his career.  While I don’t believe he will be a complete bust, his current draft position tells us it’s time to pump the brakes a little bit. Grabbing a quarterback with barely any experience in the top ten at the position is taking a serious chance. Taking a quarterback like that when there are guys available who have been perennial performers later in the draft is insanity.

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Running Back – Derick Henry

Average Draft Position 29 Overall/RB17

 

The former Heisman winning running back came into this offseason believing that he finally had the reigns to the backfield by himself but the Titans had other plans. In free agency, the Titans decided to add former Patriot Dion Lewis to their backfield truly limiting Derrick Henry’s upside.  After finishing the season as RB38 Henry peaked the fantasy community’s interest with a huge playoff performance against the Chiefs with 191 yards of total offense. Even showing up in a big way was not enough to keep the Titans from bringing in another talented runner.

Going a full three rounds later Dion Lewis had 102 more rushing yards thanHenry off of only three more carries last season. Lewis also has versatility which shows when he had more receptions last year than Henry has had in his two-year career. Even if Henry increases his efficiency from a career 4.3 yards per attempt, he has his work cut out for him competing for carries with such a well-rounded back. Between the split carries and limited receiving upside Henry’s average draft position is a serious reach for fantasy owners who could end up being majorly let down.

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Running Back – Kenyan Drake

Average Draft Position 33/ RB18

I hate this year’s third round of the draft, it has a ton of question marks not only when it comes to talent but opportunity as well. Last year once Drake won the starting role he played fantastic going on a stretch from week 13-16 with three straight 20+ point PPR games. While this was extremely exciting for the future they were the only times all season he had over 20 touches. The following two he had 13 and 14.

This offseason the Dolphins didn’t show their confidence in Drake, picking up the never aging machine which is Frank Gore and fourth-round rookie Kalen Ballage. While neither of these two may be every down backs they bring a diverse enough skill set to hamper Drakes production. The three backs have the chance to become a full-blown committee. If this happens for a player being drafted in the early third round it could be disastrous to a fantasy team. 

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Wide Receiver- Josh Gordon

Average Draft Position 35 overall/ WR 15

 

Way back in 2013, Josh Gordon led the league in receiving yards with 1,646 and 9 touchdowns, since then the NFL has had 89 one thousand yards receiving season. These thousand yard season included the likes of John Brown, Allen Hurns, and Kenny Britt all of whom have become forgotten commodities in fantasy football. Yet for some reason, 27-year-old Josh Gordon is still looked at like he’s the next great fantasy wide receiver, when in reality he’s not even the best receiver on his team.

Last season on 43 targets Gordon only caught 18 balls giving him a catch percentage of 41% which even with bad QB play is terrible. While on the field his 8.6 targets per game weren’t bad but that was competing for targets with Ricardo Loius, Rishard Higgins and Kenny Britt for targets. Now he is paired with a proven target monster in Jarvis Landry who is one of the most reliable receivers in the game. Landry is going 17 spots behind Gordon in fantasy drafts and has averaged 100 catches and 1000 yards receiving during Josh Gordon’s four-year hiatus from football. The real question with Josh Gordon is how many more times will the world be fooled by the fake camp news and work out videos?

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Wide Receiver –JuJu Smith-Schuster

Average Draft Position 46 overall/ WR19

This one has less to do with the player and more to do with the situation. At 21 years old JuJu is one of the most exciting young talents in the league, he’s a likable kid, exciting to watch and has a ton of upside. The bad news for JuJu comes with who he’s behind and that’s the best receiver in the league Antonio Brown.  Antonio Brown has been an absolute target hound for Pittsburgh with five straight seasons of over 150 targets and over 100 receptions. The even worse news is Antonio Brown is signed thru the year 2021 which is a year longer then Juju’s rookie contract.

Last season Juju’s best games came when Brown was not on the field. In games with Brown playing, Smith-Schuster averaged only 5.6 targets a game which puts him behind receivers like Kendall Wright, Danny Amendola and former teammate Martavis Bryant.

The type of target share competing with Antonio Brown, Lev’eon Bell, and newly acquired James Washington will make it hard to get the number of catches and yardage to be a sustainable player in fantasy. While the upside is there and the future is bright we may be a few years away from him truly being the fantasy asset he’s viewed as.

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Tight End – Trey Burton

Average Draft Position 90 overall/ TE9

In a matter of two to three months, Trey Burton skyrocketed from a late round sleeper to a top ten drafted player at his position. The former undrafted free agent will be competing with the Bears second-round pick from last year’s draft, Adam Shaheen for the starting job. Last season Burton filled in admirably for Zach Ertz when he was hurt and even having the play of the game in the Super Bowl throwing a touchdown on a trick play. New flash that’s not enough to merit reason for him as a top ten tight end.

Coming in at 6’3” 236 pounds Burton is one of the smallest tight ends in the NFL which is going to limit him in a number of ways. To start at his size he won’t be able to stay in line in to block which makes him a situational player. When the Bears need a big body out there to block or cause confusion this won’t do, especially compared to Shaheen who is 6’6” 278 pounds.  While there are a few tight ends in the league with his size limitations they are phenomenal athletes like Evan Engram who graded as an 88th percentile Sparq-x athlete whereas Burton is in the 44th. With no real career production and limited size and athleticism, the chances of a true break out are slim to none. The tight end position is bad but not bad enough to take the chance at him in the top ten of it

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