Fantasy Football Week 10 Preview

Welcome to the Week 10 Preview!  We will cover every game for the upcoming weekend and find the best matchups and the ones to avoid!  Let’s just jump into it.

 

Redskins at Buccaneers

Maurice Harris is the first player that jumps off the screen for most people.  I have serious hesitations about him. He is a slot player that saw 12 targets last week after seeing nine over his previous three games combined.  He has a fantastic matchup against Bucs corner M.J. Stewart, but I think his target total will be closer to his previous three games. A big problem with the Redskins is the offensive line.  They are down to one of their original starters for this game and Alex Smith has been brutal the last few weeks. If Chris Thompson is able to return, then Smith will have him and Jordan Reed to check down to all game to escape the pressure.

The Buccaneers are just different with Ryan Fitzpatrick.  His deep completion percentage nearly doubles Jameis Winston’s in every third of the field.  I think this is a DeSean Jackson game. You have the “revenge narrative” and we just saw Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley exploit them with pure speed.  Josh Norman is sneaky old and ran a 4.7 when he was young. That is where they should attack.

 

Cardinals at Chiefs

The Cardinals gave everyone some hope two weeks ago with David Johnson’s increase in pass routes and Larry Fitzgerald’s dominance of the team’s targets and air yards.  The Chiefs were just dominated by Duke Johnson in the passing game, so I fully expect the better DJ to do the same. It is hard to trust him, but you could do worse than Ricky Seals-Jones.  The Chiefs give up the second-most yards to tight ends.

Sammy Watkins suffered a foot injury and is likely going to miss some time.  I think this helps Chris Conley the most. He was already the slot receiver for the Chiefs and will now be out wide opposite Tyreek Hill in two-receiver sets.  He is an athletic freak and should see an increase in targets. I think Hill gets shadowed by Patrick Peterson, but it shouldn’t matter. He is so quick and explosive that he only needs one play.  This should be a big Kareem Hunt game, though. Massive home favorite against a bottom-three team that is leaking points to running backs.

 

Bills at Jets

Another disgusting game.  Bills are a talented defense and the Jets continue to suffer key injuries.  Their offensive line let the Dolphins abuse Sam Darnold and he will now miss the game.  I think this helps out Robby Anderson, as he and Josh McCown had a solid deep connection last year.  Elijah McGuire might get a decent bit of work too. But I wouldn’t start anyone unless I was desperate.

The Bills continue to be the worst offense in professional sports history.  Nathan Peterman will likely play again with Josh Allen out and Derek Anderson in the concussion protocol.  Pencil in multiple interceptions and brutal stat lines from every Bills player. LeSean McCoy should get more work with Chris Ivory banged up.  This could be his best game of the season.

 

Jaguars at Colts

This game will be massive in determining the AFC South.  I think the Colts win this one easily, though. They have a top-5 offensive line and the Jaguars simply cannot get any pressure.  Marlon Mack will run all over this defense and Andrew Luck will have plenty of time to throw the ball. T.Y. Hilton is a great DFS tournament play and Jack Doyle should see great targets as well.  In his two full games with Luck this season, he’s seen 17 targets.

Leonard Fournette should be back in this game.  It will be interesting to see if this changes the look of the offense, which has been the most run-heavy to start the season.  I’m not sure if they’ll give him a full workload, but he’ll likely see enough work to pay off. The Colts are weak against deep targets on early downs, so Donte Moncrief might be solid in this one.  He is seeing a 22 percent target share, so you could do worse.

 

Lions at Bears

The Lions have decided to give up despite being in playoff contention.  They shipped their safety valve for Matthew Stafford, their line stopped blocking, and their defense got worse.  Now the Bears get Khalil Mack back? This game might get ugly. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have good matchups on the outside, but that is about all you can trust from this team.

Jordan Howard has strung together some nice games, mostly due to touchdowns.  This one sets up as a good game as well. The Bears should be able to force some turnovers and give Howard some easy red zone work.  Allen Robinson should be back, but that means he’ll be seeing Darius Slay. This should help Anthony Miller, who runs primarily out of the slot.  I’m buying the Bears running game more than the passing game, though.

 

Saints at Bengals

This will be a super popular game for DFS, but I think it is an easy fade.  My gut tells me that the Bengals won’t be able to move the ball with their depleted receiving weapons on offense.  The Saints are a top-3 run defense team and they have the speed at linebacker to limit receptions to Joe Mixon. Marshon Lattimore could easily just shadow Tyler Boyd.  This will be an Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram game. Remember last year against the Bills? The Saints literally ran the ball 22 consecutive times at over five yards per carry to close out the game.  The Bengals won’t be able to stop this running game and the Saints will keep their offense off of the field. Michael Thomas is still a safe bet, but I’m not touching newly-acquired Dez Bryant or anyone else in this passing game.  

 

Patriots at Titans

This game has sneaky shootout potential.  The Titans showed on Monday night that their offensive line is healthy.  They made the full switch to Dion Lewis as their lead back. And Marcus Mariota is executing plays and balling out on the ground.  This Titans team is what we thought it was going to be, but let’s just hope they can sustain it. I like Corey Davis as a target monster in this one.  Tajae Sharp and Taywan Taylor haven’t practiced yet, leaving Davis as the only bankable piece of the offense. If they try to play man to man on Davis with Stephon Gilmore, then the Titans have an edge.  Davis is averaging a 105 passer rating when targeted in man and Gilmore is averaging a 109 passer rating. That will be the best way to attack that matchup.

The Patriots should be getting back Sony Michel and Rob Gronkowski, but I see this game going to more of a pass-centric offense.  The offense seems to run through James White these days, but the Titans have athletic linebackers in Rashaan Evans and Wesley Woodyard.  They should be able to contain White and Gronk. Malcolm Butler has been a liability every week. Josh Gordon will be matched up on him for most of the game (assuming the Titans haven’t demoted Butler).  He should be able to dominate that matchup coming off of his best game since 2015. Julian Edelman has a tough matchup with Adoree Jackson in the slot, but he and Brady seem to make it work every week no matter what.  

 

Falcons at Browns

I remember watching the Chiefs against the Browns on Red Zone.  Kareem Hunt caught a screen on the left side, stiff-armed a guy and took it 50 yards for a score.  Then seconds later they cut to the Falcons game where Tevin Coleman took a screen, juked a guy and took it 50 yards for a score.  And now Tevin Coleman gets the Browns this week? I think we’ll see the exact same play.

The Browns just put LB Christian Kirksey on IR.  He was their answer for running backs and tight ends that split out.  This should be an easy smash spot for Coleman and Austin Hooper. Denzel Ward is also doubtful, so they should have no answer for Julio Jones.  This offense will continue to be unstoppable with Sarkisian calling plays like this.

Duke Johnson feels like a trap play this week.  He dominated the passing game work against the Chiefs and will likely do the same against the Falcons.  BUT, if Deion Jones returns from IR, he has the speed to shut down Johnson. His return would be an incredible boost to this defense.  Jarvis Landry is an easy target here against Brian Poole. He is seeing a massive target share and the Browns will pass a ton. They were drawing up 2-6 plays for each of Damion Ratley, Rishard Higgins, Antonio Callaway, and Breshad Perriman.  None of them are usable.

 

Chargers at Raiders

Melvin Gordon keeps chugging along.  He is dominating the work in the backfield despite having a usable change of pace guy.  Gordon is averaging 5.4 yards per carry despite never topping 3.9 in his career. It’s almost like he is the dominant running back that we saw in college.  Maybe we shouldn’t write a guy off after a few years.

Gordon should dominate the Raiders in this game.  They have just given up on both sides of the ball.  Keenan Allen has a great matchup against Leon Hall in the slot.  He is 34-years-old. Really, you should just start every Charger.

It is hard to justify any Raider in fantasy, but the two I have an eye on are Doug Martin and Jared Cook.  Martin has averaged over 5.0 yards per touch over the last two weeks and the Chargers are weak at linebacker.  Jared Cook is the top option in the passing game for the Raiders, but the Chargers are good against tight ends.  They roll the athletic first-rounder, Derwin James, down to take away the position.

 

Seahawks at Rams

This game could have massive shootout upside.  I’m talking Seahawks-Texans from 2017. The Rams dominated the game the first time these teams met and they didn’t even have two of their receivers for half of the game.  They will have a full complement of weapons and should move the ball with ease. Start every Ram.

The Seahawks ramped up Russell Wilson’s pass attempts to 39 after averaging less than 20 on the year.  This is what we want to see for the future. The elevated attempts help everyone in the passing game, but mostly Tyler Lockett.  Lockett will be up against Marcus Peters, who just got bullied by Michael Thomas last week for over 200 yards. Lockett is a good route runner and should dominate him on double moves.  Doug Baldwin should be fine as well, but Nickell Roby-Coleman plays the slot and has been the best corner for the Rams. Mike Davis should have a nice game, and he recently saw a passing game boost (8 targets last week).  

 

Dolphins at Packers

I’m hoping this is a massive Aaron Jones breakout game, but Mike McCarthy might be a dick and use the fumble to justify getting 3.4 yards per carry from Jamaal Williams.  The Dolphins have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and they are still starting Brock Osweiler. Stream the Packers defense and play Aaron Jones. Davante Adams should be fine against Xavien Howard.  He put together a nice game against Stephon Gilmore last week, and Howard isn’t the same level of player as Gilmore. This should be a Marquez Valdes-Scantling game. He has incredible speed for his size and will be up against Bobby McCain.  McCain was torched by Will Fuller’s speed in Week 8.

I’m not very interested in any Dolphin.  Danny Amendola comes to mind as a volume slot receiver, but do we really want to rely on Osweiler to complete throws?  Kenyan Drake saw three touches to Frank Gore’s 21, so I don’t even know what to say about that. It’s like the Dolphins know they absolutely suck so they want to get Gore his records for some locker room camaraderie.  It truly is embarrassing for the franchise and the fans.

 

Cowboys at Eagles

The Cowboys traded a first-rounder in the middle of a rebuilding year for a receiver that they can’t afford.  Oof. Amari Cooper does have a good matchup in this one at least. The Eagles will be down their two starting corners and the Cowboys made an effort to get him included last week.  Ezekiel Elliot will struggle against this Eagles front. The offensive line isn’t what it once was and the running lanes aren’t opening up. Cooper and Elliot suck all of the targets out of the offense as well, so nobody else is really usable.

I’m excited for Golden Tate to abuse the Cowboys again.  I think he completely phases out Nelson Agholor and captures a 20 percent target share.  He should be fantasy relevant right from the start. Alshon Jeffrey has a very tough matchup against Byron Jones.  I’m not too excited about him. Josh Adams could have a good game with Sean Lee back out. Has this dude ever played more than 10 games in a season?  Either way, Adams is pushing Corey Clement out the door. He could solidify his role with a solid showing this week.

 

Giants at 49ers

I love how everyone was probably so excited about this game before the season started.  Then injuries happen and teams start tanking and we are left with crappy teams in primetime.  This could still be an exciting game. Neither defense is very imposing in either phase of the game.  Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley are locks for the Giants. Evan Engram is intriguing as well. The 49ers have limited the efficiency of tight ends, but Engram is just such an athletic freak that he could break a couple long catches.  

George Kittle has surpassed all expectations.  I declared him the next Travis Kelce in the preseason, but he is even more athletic and is producing with a litany of quarterbacks.  He’ll feast this week. The receiver core is a little more difficult to project. Nick Mullen looks like the GOAT, but he spread out the targets to Kenrick Bourne, Richie James, Marquise Goodwin, and Pierre Garcon.  You have to bank on Goodwin seeing the best target share, but it’s hard to really rely on it. “Iron Man” Matt Breida is set up for a big workload with Raheem Mostert out for the year. He is a solid RB2.

 

Well, that’s it for this week!  Thank you so much for reading and I hope I helped you all with your lineups.  If you have any questions or comments, let me know on Twitter! See you next week.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.