Fantasy Football: Week 2 Sit/Starts

Week one is behind us and while it was unexpected did we really expect anything less in 2020? I had a couple of misses: 1) while I didn’t suggest you sit Alvin Kamara I did advise you to temper expectations. Well, two touchdowns later your fantasy day from Kamara was above expectation. And while he only averaged 1.3 yards a carry, you can live with two touchdowns; 2) and the tight-end situation in the Seattle v Atlanta game a Freaky-Friday thing. Hayden Hurst was odd man out. So while three wide receivers for Atlanta were targeted 12 times and had over 100 receiving yards, Hurst meanwhile was targeted four times and finished with 38 yards, so start bad. Then there was Greg Olsen who salvaged his day four targets, four receptions and 24 yards day with one touchdown.

I will do better.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

CINCINNATI BENGALS v CLEVELAND BROWNS CLEVELAND 6 POINT FAVORITE, 44 O/U

Before we all jump off the Browns’ bandwagon, remember that the Browns played the Baltimore Ravens who are really good on both sides of the ball.

The Bengals held up pretty well against a Los Angles Chargers defense who are pretty good. Rookie Joe Burrow did nothing to lessen the hype.

START: RUNNING BACK, NICK CHUBB: Week one Hunt played on 47 percent of the offensive snaps and had 13 carries. In a game that appeared to be out of reach from well… the beginning, Hunt managed 72 yards, while being targeted six times for four receptions and nine yards.

Chubb on the other had played 51 percent of the snaps with 10 carries. He ran eight routes split wide or slot which was second most of any running back in week one. Chubb averaged 6 yards per carry.

This is a game in which the Browns should be in control. That means more of Chubb and a little less of Hunt. So don’t jump off the Chubb wagon just yet.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JOE MIXON: This is a game that the Bengals look to be playing from behind. Last week Mixon had 19 rushes for 69 yards, he was also targeted twice, catching one for two yards. IT is a good sign that (for Mixon) that the Brown’s defense gave up two rushing touchdowns to JK Dobbins last season. However, that was in a game that the run game was in play. If the Bengals get down early (and often) there is a chance Burrow relies on his quality wide receivers.

CAROLINA PANTHERS v TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS TAMPA 8.5 POINT FAVORITE, 48.5 O/U

Another game where both teams will come into the game having lost their week one matches. And again one team was up against a more formidable foe.

START: RUNNING BACK, RONALD JONES: The Bucs are looking to get right. In a surprise Jones was on the field for 47 percent of the team’s snaps. He had a team high 17 rushes for 66 yards, while also having two receptions for 16 yards. So while everyone is worrying about the inclusion of Leonard Fournette into the running back room, Jones is still the man.

This will be against a team that has not apparently improved on its 31st ranked rushing defense. Just last week the Panthers’ defense got gashed for 93 yards and three touchdowns by Josh Jacobs.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, ROBBY ANDERSON: Last week Anderson was targeted eight times for six receptions, 115 yards and one touchdown. Now that’s good. But this week the Panthers are up against the secondary that held Michael Thomas to three receptions and 17 yards.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS v TENNESSEE TITANS, TITANS 9 POINT FAVORED, 42.5 O/U

The Jaguars pulled off stunning upset last week. Titans held on even though they had a three missed field goals and a missed extra point.

START: WIDE RECEIVER, LAVISKA SHENAULT, JR.: The Jaguars are anywhere between an eight point and 10 point underdog depending on when and where you look.  In a game whose script will put the Jaguars behind, the game script and minions will be clamoring for the Make Do With Minshew show.  

In week one Shenault, was targeted four times for three receptions, 37 yards, one touchdowns, two carries and 10 yards.  This is important not only because he was the second most targeted wide receiver on the team but he did that being third in snaps for wide receivers on the team.  DJ Chark is still there but he will be going deep and not a threat to the Shenault’s short passes and rushing carries. 

The obvious downside is Johnathan Joseph who will most likely have the responsibility of covering Shenault.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, RYAN TANNEHILL: This is not a knock on Tannehill but more an observations of game script and the Titans proclivities.  For week one the Titans were tied for sixth in rushing attempts per game.  That was in a game they played way to close for comfort.  Tannehill did attempt 43 passes, which is a lot for Tennessee.  But in game they should dominate look for it once again to be the Derrick Henry show.  

NEW YORK GIANTS v CHICAGO BEARS, BEARS 5.5 POINT FAVORITE, 42.5 O/U

Weird stat for the day: Daniel Jones led the Giants in rushing yards with 22 yards, Saquon Barkley had six yards on 15 carries.  Just that…weird.  Start Saquon.  

START: QUARTERBACK, MITCHELL TRUBISKY: Yep I am doing it again.  Trubisky is match-up dependent and luckily for him these first two games are right in his wheel house.  Last week after a slow start Trubisky managed 242 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions, he also added 64 rushing yards.  Good enough to finish as QB8 for the week ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Gardner Minshew and Kirk Cousins just to name a few.

This week he goes against a Giants defense that allowed one year removed, 38-year old Ben Roethlisberger three touchdowns and 229 yards.  It feels like Trubisky time.  

SIT: TIGHT-END, EVAN ENGRAM: I get it, the Giants were facing a really…really good Pittsburgh Steelers defense.  But come on…Engram averaged 0.64 yards per target.  He had seven targets, caught two of them for nine yards!  To be fair it was not a great offensive performance for Barkley either averaging 0.4 yards per rush.  However, we have seen Barkley be good…consistently.  We need to see that from Engram before we trust. 

ATLANTA FALCONS v DALLAS COWBOYS COWBOYS 4.5 POINT FAVORITE 52.5 O/U

This game sports the highest over/under for the week.  It also has two teams coming in at 0-1.

START: RUNNING BACK, TODD GURLEY: Last week Matt Ryan attempted 54 passes.  Thirty-six of those attempts went to three wide receivers, Gurley was on the receiving end of five (which was tied for second most on the team).  He also rushed 14 times for 56 yards and one touchdown.  He and his arthritic knee averaged 4.0 yards per carry.  The Falcons offense is loaded, no doubt.  But the Dallas defense allowed Malcolm Brown two rushing touchdowns and three receptions.  Gurley is better than that.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, CEE DEE LAMB: Lamb was the second most targeted wide receiver last week with six targets.  He hauled in five for 59 yards. His lone drop was crucial.  And why he flashed why he is so highly coveted he also showed he is still a rookie.  The Cowboys need to win this one and my money says Dax Prescott will depend on Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott to get the job done. 

Worth noting Lamb is going to be good and needs to be rostered.  I just don’t think he will be the one in this game. 

DETROIT LIONS v GREEN BAY PACKERS, PACKERS 6 POINT FAVORITE, 49 O/U

Oh and it is a continuation of the Aaron Rodgers FU Tour.  Front row seats still available. 

START: QUARTERBACK, AARON RODGERS: Is that too easy?  I am saying the Green Bay offense under Rodgers and his bevy or receivers are going to score 49 points by themselves.  Against a Lions defense that allowed Trubisky (no disrespect) to throw three touchdowns on them including one to Jimmy Graham ( again no disrespect…but really)? The Matt Patricia era is collapsing rapidly around a coach who relies on his stats as a coordinator in New England to bolster his team’s blowing leads while he is head coach. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, KERRYON JOHNSON: Seven rushing attempts, 14 yards, 2.0 rushing average, zero targets.  That my friends is the stat line from week one for Johnson.  Johnson was replaced by Adrian Peterson who finished the game with 93 yards on 14 carries, three targets, three receptions for 21 yards.  Peterson was on the field for 24 offensive snaps, D ‘Andre Swift had 35 and Johnson 20.  Johnson should be the odd man out in this backfield. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS v INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, COLTS 3 POINT FAVORITE, 48 O/U

Marlon Mack is out for the season.  

START: RUNNING BACK, NYHEIM HINES: Quarterback Philip Rivers attempted 46 passes last week.  It was a surprise because well the Colts were thought to be a run first team.  Mack went down with an injury.  The Colts were in a fight and eventual loss to a team most thought were “rebuilding” and Rivers threw two interceptions (should have been three). But through it all there was Hines.  Hines was on the field for 53 percent of the offensive snaps.  He is in an offense where the quarterback will dump it off to his running backs, against a defense that allowed five receptions to the Packers running backs.  

The Colts don’t have the formidable weapons at wide receiver that the Packers possess or the quarterback.  But they do have a running back who was targeted eight times (second most on the team) had eight receptions for 45 yards and one touchdown.  He also added 4.0 rushing average with seven rushes and one touchdown on 28 yards. 

Yes, this will eventual be the Jonathan Taylor show, but until then it’s Hines time.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, JUSTIN JEFFERSON: Rookie wide receiver are being asked to acclimate to the NFL without any pre-season warm up.  Fantasy owners are asked to trust these rookie wide receivers to bring them fantasy wins.  Even in the strongest wide receiving class in a long time that is asking a lot.  The rookies will get theirs, some quicker than others.  Jefferson was targeted three times for two receptions and 26 yards in a game his quarterback threw 25 times.  Adam Thielen is the current winner of the Kirk Cousins largess.  Thielen was on the receiving end of eight targets.  That doubled the next targeted and that wasn’t even Jefferson.  

BUFFALO BILLS v MIAMI DOLPHINS, BILLS 6 POINT FAVORITE, 41 O/U

This game is tied for the lowest over/under for the week. 

START: QUARTERBACK, JOSH ALLEN: In an offense that has running back by committee and wide receivers by committee it is hard to start anyone but the quarterback who finally eclipsed 300 passing yards and still ran for one touchdown.  Yes, it was against a struggling New York Jets team, but the Dolphins allowed Cam Newton two rushing touchdowns, so there’s that. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JORDAN HOWARD: What is going on!  Howard had eight carries for seven yards.  He was fantasy relevant because he managed one touchdown against the Patriots.  Oh yeah, his rushing average 0.9 (quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had more rushing yards and a higher average) to add insult to fantasy injury he wasn’t targeted in the passing game.  The Bills defense is currently second against the rush allowing the Patriots 52 rushing yards.  Howard is a sit…maybe even a drop?  

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS v NEW YORK JETS, 49ERS 7 POINT FAVORITE, 42.5 O/U

Am I the only one who thinks that this spread is incredibly low?  The Niners are banged up but it is the Jets.

START: RUNNING BACK, RAHEEM MOSTERT: The Niners lost to Arizona last week.  Tight end George Kittle is banged up and well their receiving corps is slightly underwhelming.  Start playing Mostert.  He rushed 15 times for 56 yards.  He was also tied for the lead in targets with five.  Of those he caught four for 95 yards and one touchdown.  He was clearly  the most productive person on the field.  There is always that concern for West Coast teams going East, and in Covid times not sure how different the protocol is, but against a Jets’ defense that managed to finish week one: 26th total yards, 29th passing yards, 12th rushing yards and 21 in total points, Mostert is good.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, SAM DARNOLD: I’m not sure if anyone was considering playing Darnold, even in a 2QB league, but if you were don’t.  Last week against a Bills defense Darnold was sacked three times, intercepted one time, attempted 35 passes and had one touchdown.  He isn’t worth the headache right now. 

LOS ANGELES RAMS v PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, RAMS 1 POINT FAVORITE, 46 O/U

For this game monitor the status of the Eagles offensive line injuries…two words Aaron Donald.

START: TIGHT END, TYLER HIGBEE: The new look Rams offense appears to be set on having quarterback Jared Goff get the ball out of his hands quick.  While Higbee was slightly underwhelming in his first game with four targets, three receptions for 40 yards and no touchdowns, this should be different.  The Eagles gave up one touchdown to the Washington Football Team, that was to tight end Logan Thomas.  I don’t think it was a fluke. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ: If the Eagles offensive line is still hurting, sit Wentz.  Getting sacked eight times by the Washington Football Team looks like kid’s fodder for the Los Angles Rams front seven.  Can’t trust him. 

DENVER BRONCOS v PITTSBURGH STEELERS, STEELERS 7 POINT FAVORITE 41 O/U

Check injury status of Philip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, AJ Bouye and James Conner. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, DIONTAE JOHNSON: The Broncos will most likely be without Bouye for this game.  Look for Ben Roethlisberger to take advantage of it.  Johnson was the most targeted wide receiver in the MNF with 10 targets, six receptions and 57 yards.  JuJu Smith-Schuster will get his, Chase Claypool may even see a few.  But look for Roethlisberger to continue the chemistry he is developing with Johnson.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, MELVIN GORDON: With Lindsay banged up, Gordon is next man up.  Unfortunately, he is next man up on defense that limited Saquon Barkley to six yards on 15 carries.  Gordon performed well against the Tennessee Titans MNF, with 78 yards and one touchdown on 15 attempts, but the Titans are not the Steelers.  

WASHINGTON v ARIZONA CARDINALS, CARDINALS 7 POINT FAVORITE, 47.5 O/U

Both teams come in after pulling off week one upset.

START: QUARTERBACK, KYLER MURRAY: I will admit, Washington’s front seven gives me some pause, but Murray’s ability to run and his new weapon DeAndre Hopkins gives him a slight edge.  I repeat…slight. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, ANTONIO GIBSON: Here is the problem, Peyton Barber had 10 red zone touches last week to Gibson’s one.  But Barber had no targets to Gibson’s two.  Mostert didn’t hurt the Cardinals in the run game last week, he torched them in the passing game.  So while Gibson’s ceiling is low in this game, I am not so sure Barber’s is much higher. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS v HOUSTON TEXANS, RAVENS 7 POINT FAVORITE, 52 O/U

Can the Ravens be any more scarier?

START: RUNNING BACK, DAVID JOHNSON: Here is the problem, what wide receiver in Houston do you trust?  Will Fuller led TNF with 10 targets, eight receptions, 112 yards. Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks had five targets and two receptions while Randall Cobb had three targets and two receptions.  Is that a trend or an aberration?  

David Johnson had 11 rushes for 77 yards and one target he also four targets and two receptions.  If any Cleveland player did “okay” against the Ravens last week it was Kareem Hunt with 72 rushing yard and six targets, with four receptions.  Johnson is closest to that profile. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, MARK INGRAM: This slightly hurts my soul, but JK Dobbins is the start here.  Last week Ingram did lead all running backs with 10 rushing attempts, but he only had 29 yards to show for that effort.  Dobbins had seven rushing attempt, only 22 yards but he threw in two rushing touchdowns.  All of Dobbins rushing attempts were in the red zone.  For now it appears Dobbins is touchdown dependent and Ingram is the volume play.  Only Ingram shares that designation not only with Dobbins but Lamar Jackson.  So he is in a running back by committee and will get vultured for touchdowns. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS v LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, CHIEFS 9 POINT FAVORITE, 48 O/U 

The Chargers were lucky to escape with a win, the Chiefs just reminded everyone why they are the favorite to go back-to-back Super Bowls. 

START: RUNNING BACK, JOSHUA KELLEY: This should be a game of keep away.  The Chargers need to just keep the Chiefs off the field.  Enter the running backs.  Austin Ekeler led the running back room with 19 rushes for 84 yards but surprisingly he was only targeted one time even though he ran 22 routes.  Kelley was targeted at all but he averaged 5.0 yards per rush and scored the Chargers only touchdown.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, SAMMY WATKINS: Watkins is known for balling out in his first few games and the puttering until the end.  The Chargers are known for their pass rush and secondary.  This game script sets up better for Travis Kelce and even Demarcus Robinson.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS v SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, SEAHAWKS 4 POINT FAVORITE 45 O/U

There will be no 12th man at the game. 

START: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON: This is a new look for the New England Patriots and they are soaking it all in. Last week Newton had 15 carries for 75 yards and two rushing touchdowns.  He had 19 passing attempts, seven went to Julian Edelman and six went to N’Keal Harry, which means he was throwing but long and short passes.  Seattle allowed three different receivers to get over 100 yards last week.  Of course Matt Ryan attempted 54 passes.  Bill Belichick is out to prove he is the wheel that turns the Patriots’ dynasty.  Look for Newton to double his passing attempts and rush for at least two touchdowns. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, DK METCALF: I personally own many of shares of Metcalf and believe he will soon excel.  Last week he was targeted eight times and reeled in four.  He also had 95 yards and one touchdown.  The problem is the Patriots secondary is formidable, notwithstanding the job they did on the Dolphins last week.  Last season they were first against the pass and allowed the fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks (10.9) and wide receivers (14.8).

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS v LAS VEGAS RAIDERS SAINTS 6 POINT FAVORITE, 50.5 O/U

START: RUNNING BACK, ALVIN KAMARA: Forget that last week Kamara only averaged 1.3 yards per carry, that was against Tampa Bay.  Kamara should bet back to Kamara form this game as the Raiders allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs last season (20.3).  And last week Christian McCaffrey ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns.  We can only attribute his lack of targets to new head coach and offensive coordinators.  The Saints do not suffer from such newness.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, HENRY RUGGS: Ruggs had an okay game last week with five targets, three receptions and 55 yards (remember he left game briefly with injury).  This week he goes against Marshon Lattimore and a secondary managed to hold Tampa Bay’s dynamic duo to under 85 receiving yards combined.  Ruggs will get his formal introduction to the NFL Monday Night. 

Good Luck and remember it is the second week no time to panic.  For your questions come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt and come see us Sunday in the War Room @ 1130 EST. 

 

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