Fantasy Football Week 4 Last Call Start Sit or Forget
NFL 2024 Last Call Week 4 Who Is the Premium Play?
We all know when we walk into a bar that Johnnie Walker Blue and the Baccarat edition of Woodford Reserve are steps above premium, and if we had the money, hell yeah, but otherwise we stick with the premium or well selections.
Well, in redraft fantasy football consider the Josh Allen, healthy Christian McCaffrey, Cee Dee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill (with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa) the Blue Label and Baccarat editions. I don’t have to tell you to play them, it is just known that they are a step above. I will also begrudgingly include Patrick Mahomes in that category, for now.
This is Week 4 and the premium plays are starting to thin out due to injuries and unexpected great play by an otherwise well option. That’s okay we have time to adjust.
FYI a shot of the Baccarat edition of Woodford Reserve was going for $350 at this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Premium Play, Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, New York Jets
Okay, here is a little life lesson for you to remember: when you go into a bar no matter how busy, if you stiff the bartender, they will remember…ALWAYS! And I can almost with complete certainty guarantee you the service you receive, if you are brave (or stupid) enough to go back into the said bar will reflect upon the lack of tip you gave last time you were there.
Why do I mention this, because this week’s premium play has the same sort of recall and is just that avenging enough to make it hurt. Remember last season when Denver Broncos’ head coach Sean Payton thought it would be best to say that Nathaniel Hackett’s coaching job in Denver the previous year was “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL”?
Yeah, me too. And while Aaron Rogers may say that it is “old news” that’s akin to me telling the guy who stiffed me, “I’ll be right with you”. The words are correct the sentiment and outcome are different.
Now if you are one of those people who thinks Rodgers is “the forgiving kind”, please move on down to the ‘Well Play’ of the week, but for those of us who know better, connect the dots…Rodgers didn’t get to play last year when the New York Jets came to Denver and spanked Payton for his comments. Rogers is fond of Nathaniel Hackett; Hackett is still in New York as is Rodgers AND the game is in New York!
The line for this game is currently Jets -7.5 with an over/under of 39.5. Last week the Jets scored 24 points on the New England Patriots, with Rodgers going 27-of-35 for 281 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 18 rushing yards.
Now don’t get me wrong, the Broncos defense is legit. They are currently second in the league allowing only 133.3 passing yards a game through three weeks. They have held:
- Geno Smith, to 171 passing yards on 25 attempts.
- Justin Fields, to 117 passing yards on 20 attempts.
- Baker Mayfield, to 163 passing yards on 33 attempts.
With no disrespect towards any of those men, they aren’t yet in Rodgers’s tier of quarterback play.
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While Vance Joseph has the Broncos defense keeping games close for the offense, and Patrick Surtain II has been a shutdown corner, Rodgers will find a way to avenge Hackett while simultaneously disgracing Payton.
This is like going to the bar and ordering a 12-year single malt Scotch Whiskey, the smoky quality of the brand isn’t for everyone, but those who imbibe know it’s well worth the cost.
Well Option, Cole Kmet, Tight End, Chicago Bears
The caveat on this is if Keenan Allen is once again out this week. The Bears play the Los Angeles Rams in Chicago this week. The Bears are a field goal home favorite with a 41.5 over/under.
The Kmet pick is when your premium brand (although it may be a stretch to consider Allen premium at this juncture), is out and you just go to the next best option, you know the Diplomatico Reserva Rum is out, so you settle for Bacardi.
Quarterback Caleb Williams has yet to hold up to the hype, which is hard to do when your head coach and offensive coordinator are making you play with one hand tied behind your back and a patch over one eye, metaphorically speaking.
Head coach Matt Eberflus was critical of Williams play without irony which may be the most ironic thing this week. A rookie quarterback making the transition being too aggressive, who would have thought? A head coach whose limitations are proven each season and whose inability to put his players in their best positions, nah! But I digress.
Kmet’s targets have gone from one in the first game of the season to 11 last week and with his 10 receptions, he had 97 yards and a touchdown. Last week he was on the field for 81% of the offensive snaps, and he had a 58% route share while averaging 2.94 YPRR. His 20.6% first read share will play well against this week’s opponent, the Rams.
The Rams are giving up the second most fantasy points to the tight end position, 9.0. In the desolate wasteland that has been the tight-end position so far this season, I’ll take that bet.
Going to the Mat (or Just Don’t), Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders want to be a ground-and-pound team, yet they are 32nd in team run plays per game (18.3). It doesn’t help that in their three games they have gone into the fourth quarter behind.
It also doesn’t help that White is averaging 3.2 yards per carry with zero touchdowns, on a 40.9% snap share with a 28.6 weighted opportunity. And his offensive line is struggling and may start two rookies against Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns defensive line.
And then there is this
While admiring head coach Antonio Pierce’s loyalty (or stubbornness) it’s hard to want to drink from that bottle.
Who is your premium play this week? And also, what is your beverage of choice?
“The hard part about being a bartender is figuring out who is drunk and who is just stupid.”—Richard Braunstein
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