Fantasy Football Week 5 Last Call Start, Sit or Forget
I feel like that bartender who prematurely gave the last call and had guests reaching for their premium choice before it was necessary, Aaron Rodgers was last week’s unnecessary premium call and for that, I profusely apologize. Sure, the weather sucked, but Rodgers did play in Green Bay for a bit and bad weather shouldn’t be an excuse. I have no excuse except that I am quite flabbergasted by the ineptness of the New York Jets offense so far this season (or am I).
The Jets currently rank 18th in passing yards per game (203.3), 22nd in yards per game (294.8), 25th in yards per play (4.8) and 27th in rushing yards per game (91.5). I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that their yards per game have them sandwiched between the New York Giants and the Carolina Panthers. Why am I mentioning this, because my fellow consumers, stats do matter, and I must remind myself of this for this week.
Speaking of which, the most expensive cocktail in the world can be found in Tokyo at the Ritz-Carlton. It is called Diamonds Are Forever and it is a martini. Its ingredients, shaken or stirred are Absolut Elyx vodka, lime juice, and a one-carat diamond. The drink when made at your table is accompanied by a live band playing “Diamonds are Forever. The cost is a mere $19,000.
You can of course make a similar martini in the privacy of your own home playing whatever song you prefer, just chill about two ounces of Absolut with ¼ ounce of lime juice (or dry vermouth), and here is where it gets interesting you can either buy some edible gold flakes to add to your drink, or have a side shot of Goldschlager (feeling really adventurous can add this cinnamon schnapps to your martini), I can guarantee the cost will be substantially less than $19,000.
And speaking of getting a reasonable facsimile of the most expensive let’s get onto our premium, well, and mat plays of the week.
Premium Play, Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Los Angeles Rams
We are familiar with the woes of the Los Angeles Rams, no Puka Nacua, no Cooper Kupp, the defense is a sieve and yet they remain competitive, for probably two reasons, Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay.
And it gets better, this week they are playing the Green Bay Packers. The game has a 48.8 predictive total and the Rams are a three-point underdog at “home”.
The Packers’ defense has pressured the quarterback the sixth most times this season (49) and yet they have the lowest pass rush win rate in the league at 27.3%. They are allowing quarterbacks to have the most time to pass inside the pocket (2.71) and the second most time before throwing the ball (3.04). Now just imagine the damage Stafford can unleash when given time.
Sam Darnold threw for three touchdowns against this defense, while in Week 2 the embattled Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns (yeah, he had two interceptions too).
Neither of those two are in Stafford’s tier of quarterback greatness,
Stafford will roll into Week 5, ranked 10th in pass attempts (130), fourth in red zone attempts (23), 13th in yards per attempt (7.5), and fifth in accuracy rating (6.3).
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So, when McVay and Stafford pull together the rag-tag assortment of weapons that the Rams will bring to the field Sunday count on Stafford being a premium option.
Well Play, Hunter Henry, Tight End, New England Patriots
The Patriots are a one-point home favorite in this matchup against the hobbling Miami Dolphins, and while that doesn’t seem like much it is a little something. Let’s face it the Patriots are a hot mess…their offensive line is offensive, their bridge quarterback, Jacoby Brissett may not survive another game, and their ‘star’ running back, Rhamondre Stevenson may get benched.
It isn’t pretty in New England and yet there is a glimmer of hope, last week tight end Austin Hooper had a touchdown while playing on 59% of the offensive plays. But if opportunity matters it is Henry that should be that well play.
For the season Henry has a 20.4% target share (last week he was on the field for 78% of the offensive snaps), has run 100 routes, and has a 91.7% route participation.
The Dolphins for the season have been pretty good against the tight end position having not given up a touchdown on 23 targets and 17 receptions to the position. But the Dolphins will also limp into New England with a hefty injury report in addition to Tua Tagovailoa, the team may be without:
- Linebackers, Jaelan Phillips, David Long, and Duke Riley
- Cornerback, Kendall Fuller and
- Safety, Jordan Poyer
Brissett has targeted Henry 21 times which includes 12 targets in Week 2 when Hunter went off for 109 yards on eight receptions.
It is well-documented how disappointing tight end play has been so far this season, and this game does not promise a return to the bygone supremacy of tight ends in New England. What it does give is that option that isn’t premium (that would be Dalton Kincaid or Travis Kelce this week) and isn’t quite bottom of the barrel.
It’s that sip of a dirty martini that you can afford in these trying times.
Going to the Mat (or Just Forget It), Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
As alluded to earlier, not really sure what is going on in New York on the Jets side, but this is what we do know: Wilson was most likely taken in the first or second round of your fantasy draft, he is currently WR38 with 191 receiving yards and 20 receptions through four games. Meanwhile, Alan Lazard who was drafted much later (if at all) is WR19 with 206 receiving yards, on 16 receptions with three touchdowns.
| NAME | TARGET SHARE | TARGET RATE | YPRR | YAC | TDs |
| G. Wilson | 25.6% | 22.8% | 1.28 | 73 | 1 |
| Lazard | 18.0% | 17.6% | 1.51 | 88 | 3 |
Stats from Player Profiler
By all metrics, Lazard is currently more efficient than Wilson and brings more fantasy value to the table.
The matchup this week will be in London against Brian Flores’ Minnesota Vikings defense. The Vikings’ defense is formidable, but it has allowed an average of 24.8 fantasy points to the wide receiver position. The question is who does Rodgers trust? Currently, it appears to be the more efficient (and BFF) Lazard.
You probably won’t sit Wilson with the draft capital you spent, the injuries to other top options, and the bye week…so just temper your expectations. You know like when you (badly) choose to do a shot of the bottom-shelf whiskey, it won’t sit right with you then and it definitely won’t sit right with you the next day.
Good Luck and play nice.
“A theory that you can’t explain to a bartender is probably no damn good.”—Ernest Rutherford
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