Fantasy: What to Expect Out of Rookie Wide Receivers
The ‘rookie wide receiver hype’ is real. It happens every year. But where do we separate hype from reality? Recent history gives us a good idea of what to expect from our beloved rookies.
We’ve seen rookie wideouts disappear on teams, which means their floor is… the ground. So what’s their ceiling, and how much can they truly achieve in fantasy? Let’s begin.
The Monster Ceiling
As a great basketball player once said, “Anything is possible.” So, here are the rookie receiving records going into the 2021 season:
Yards – Justin Jefferson – 1,400 – 2020 (88 rec. 7 TD)
Receptions – Anquan Boldin – 101 – 2003 (1,377 yds, 8 TD)
Touchdowns – Randy Moss – 17 – 1998 (69 rec. 1,313 yds)
It’s essential to establish that while, yes, anything is possible, these numbers are improbable. We’re looking for a reasonable ceiling. The last five years give us a good idea of what to expect.
The Reasonable Ceiling
To find the reasonable ceiling for a rookie wide receiver, we took the five best performing rookies of each of the last five seasons. Draft status was not a factor.
We also took into account if they finished in the top 36 that season. We call the top 36 “True Contributors.” If they finished in that range, they were dependable/top players in 12+ team leagues and solid FLEX options in 10 team leagues. An asterisk will signify that accomplishment.
Class of 2020 (PPR Points):
Justin Jefferson: 274.2 – 17.1 avg – 6th*
CeeDee Lamb: 217.7 – 13.6 avg – 22nd*
Chase Claypool: 214.9 – 13.4 avg – 23rd*
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Tee Higgins: 194.6 – 12.2 avg – 28th*
Brandon Aiyuk: 184.5 – 15.4 avg – 35th*
This WR class is special. As you can see, all top-five finishers ranked in the top 36. No other class has been able to do that over the last five seasons.
Justin Jefferson headlined this class with his historic season, and Brandon Aiyuk capped it off with his highlight reel hurdle. Together, these top five had the best finish of the last five years:
TOT AVG – 217.2 (WR23)
PPG AVG – 14.34
Class of 2019:
AJ Brown: 217.1 – 13.6 avg – 21st*
Terry McLaurin: 191.9 – 13.7 avg – 29th*
Deebo Samuel: 189.1 – 12.6 avg – 31st*
DK Metcalf: 187.1 – 11.7 avg – 33rd*
Darius Slayton: 170.0 – 12.1 avg – 37th
Three years later and we have now arrived at the ‘Class of 2019’ hype season. When these guys were rookies, their finishes were pretty good. As you can see, every player but one finished inside the coveted Top 36.
While AJ Brown led the group, he just missed out on a Top 20 finish. Still, the 2019 class finished with the 2nd best ranking, and it’s within the Top 36 again.
TOT AVG – 191.0 (WR31)
PPG AVG – 12.74
Class of 2018:
Calvin Ridley: 206.8 – 12.9 avg – 22nd*
DJ Moore: 157.0 – 9.8 avg – 36th*
Antonio Callaway: 132.3 – 8.3 avg – 55th
Courtland Sutton: 136.3 – 8.5 avg – 50th
Christian Kirk: 123.5 – 10.3 avg – 58th
The classes start to drop off at this point. The 2018 class wasn’t bad, but the majority finished outside of relevancy. Fast forward three years, and only two guys remain fantasy-relevant. Maybe Antonio Callaway can make a comeback?
TOT AVG – 151.6 (WR51)
PPG AVG – 9.96
Class of 2017:
Juju Smith-Schuster: 191.7 – 13.7 avg – 23rd*
Cooper Kupp: 176.9 – 11.8 avg – 25th*
Keelen Cole: 132.8 – 8.3 avg – 48th
Kenny Golladay: 94.6 – 8.6 avg – 69th
Chris Godwin: 92.5 – 6.2 avg – 71st
Look at the 2017 class now, and it’s hard to imagine a slow start. This class did have two guys finish in the top 25 as rookies. Chris Godwin’s 71st ranked finish that season is most surprising.
As a whole, they gave us the lowest average in this evaluation.
TOT AVG – 137.7 (WR55)
PPG AVG – 9.72
Class of 2016:
Michael Thomas: 255.7 – 17.1 avg – 7th*
Tyreek Hill: 199 – 12.4 avg – 25th*
Sterling Shepard – 184.4 – 11.5 avg – 36th*
Tyler Boyd – 124.1 – 7.8 avg – 64th
Will Fuller – 122.2 – 8.7 avg – 66th
Michael Thomas was the MAN of the 2016 class. He gave us one of just two Top 10 finishes for the rookies. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill had yet to arrive with Alex Smith as his quarterback, and Sterling Shepard hauled in eight touchdowns.
Solid class, but just missed the Top 36 cut.
TOT AVG – 177.1 (WR38)
PPG AVG – 11.5
IN CONCLUSION
So, what have we learned? Don’t reach. A top 10 or top 15 or even a top 20 finish for a rookie WR is rare. Over the last five seasons, only two wide receivers finished in the Top 20. Including those two, only 16 rookie wide receivers finished in the Top 36.
So when we answer MJ on what kind of roof is the ceiling?
The Answer: Every year there are at least two rookies who are ‘True Contributors.’ If you really believe in a guy, hope/plan for a WR23 finish. That finish is now our “Reasonable Ceiling.” If you just like a rookie and want him on your team, a ‘Non-True Contributor’ finish of WR38 is the more likely outcome.
Here’s the cumulative total for all the classes and what it looks like to finish as WR38:
OVERALL TOT AVG. – 174.9 (WR38)
OVERALL PPG AVG. – 11.65
If you want to grab any of the 2021 rookies, here’s a previous write up on a few of them.
BONUS: First Round Picks
Bonus numbers! We were also curious about first-round picks exclusively. We did some digging in that area too.
In the last 5 yrs, 13 WR’s have been drafted in the 1st round and played in *at least* 10 games as rookies. Here are the cumulative averages for their rookie years:
- 80 targets
- 48 rec.
- 4 TOT TD’s
Those numbers aren’t great. But remember, “The ceiling is the roof.”
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