Final Four Breakdown and Picking the Winners

And finally, the Final Four is set with three teams that can’t be considered surprising to be there in North Carolina (the only number one seed), Villanova, and Oklahoma. Those three teams were considered amongst the best teams all year, but the true surprise is the Syracuse Orange, who are the first 10 seed to make it to the Final Four. The Orange, it could be argued have had a very easy road playing a Dayton team that is not a great three-point shooting team and struggled down the stretch, Middle Tennessee State instead of Michigan State, and Gonzaga instead of Utah. However, that notion was dispelled on Sunday as the Orange came from behind to beat one of the very best teams and defenses in college basketball, downing Virginia to advance and setting the stage for a tough matchup versus North Carolina. These two games seem to have promising outlooks with the Oklahoma and Villanova game having real promise of being a game that could be one of the best in the entire tournament. Here is how I see the Final Four with each team’s odds of winning the National Championship.

 

Syracuse vs North Carolina

 

Why Syracuse will win:

The Orange have been on a magical run for a while now and have proven doubters wrong (myself included) after they came back to beat Virginia. The Orange still do not deserve to be in the tournament over others, but there is no sense of arguing over spilled milk and the Orange have made the most of their tournament bid. In this tournament, freshman Malachi Richardson has been an absolute beast and was key in the comeback versus Virginia. He needs to continue to step up and score points in bunches against a North Carolina team that loves to run and converts nearly every time down the floor. Senior Michael Gbinije is also a key, as is Trevor Cooney. Both of them need to step up and lead this team against a far more talented North Carolina squad, but they also need to score as there is no way Syracuse wins if they score less than 70 points. If Cooney can hit his jumpers from three, Gbinije and Richardson can get to the hole, this team has a chance. They also need Tyler Roberson to stay out of foul trouble and defend Brice Johnson, who is a huge part of North Carolina’s attack. An x-factor here is Tyler Lydon who can stretch the floor and made a couple of key hustle plays at the end of the game to give the Orange more time on their offensive possessions.

Why North Carolina will win:

The Tar Heels are as deep as they come, subbing out players in waves with each player possessing a different skill set. The one problem North Carolina has is they are not a great three-point shooting team. Marcus Paige seems to have found his jump shot recently and is really one of their only reliable three-point shooters. Where they are strong and deep though is on the inside with Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, and Isaiah Hicks all very good inside. They also downsize some with Theo Pinson or Justin Jackson playing up in the forward positions. With this depth along the front line, it allows North Carolina to be active on the boards and not have to worry about foul trouble as much, although Roy Williams would prefer it if Johnson was able to avoid foul trouble as he is probably the best big man left in the tournament. The key for North Carolina is to keep winning the rebounding battle like they have and feed Brice Johnson in the middle of the Syracuse zone and allow him to operate as a passer, jump shooter, and low post scorer, something that Syracuse will not be able to stop. If North Carolina can hit threes or score in the mid to high 80s this game could be a runaway in the Heels favor.

Odds for a Syracuse National Title:

Syracuse has had a magical run, but I am skeptical it can continue against a team as good and deep as North Carolina is. Unlike Virginia, you cannot speed them up, they already play faster than you.

Odds: 20 %

Odds for a North Carolina National Title:

The Tar Heels have a very good team, but if they start settling for threes they could be in trouble. On the other hand, if they continue to play like they have been, they have a very good chance to be cutting down the nets and holding the trophy next Monday.

Odds: 40 %

My Pick: North Carolina 80 Syracuse 69

Villanova vs Oklahoma

 

Why Villanova will win:

Villanova has been playing the best defense of anyone left in the field with suffocating ball pressure at the top led by senior guard and pitbull Ryan Arcidiacono. With their pressure at the top of the key, they have prevented penetration up the middle and forced the ball to go baseline where they can use the sideline as an extra defender. Villanova also had been shooting extremely well in the tournament before playing Kansas, but they run extremely effective sets and have guards who can get their own shots at will. Kris Jenkins is a bigger guy as a guard/forward hybrid who excels in ball-screen pick and pops and Josh Hart is a very solid player who is great getting into the paint and using a runner to get the ball over taller defenders. A big key for Villanova is how long Daniel Ochefu can stay on the floor with both foul trouble and injuries a concern for the big man. When he is playing well and on the floor, Villanova has a good rim protector and rebounder to help their defense, but when he leaves they are more vulnerable on the glass. This team has a lot of firepower on offense and Jay Wright is a fantastic in-game coach who makes one or two key adjustments every game. They will also be tough with the amount of quality free throw shooters on their team should they be up in later stages of the game.

Why Oklahoma will win:

Equally as tough to stop on offense is Oklahoma, who possesses one of the top choices for player of the year honors in Buddy Hield. Hield is the name everyone will know for his ridiculously high shooting percentage from deep, as well as his lethal scoring ability and how he can take over games in a flash (Ask VCU). However, the Sooners are more than just Hield with Isaiah Cousins another strong guard who can get his own shot and gets into the paint at will for Lon Kruger’s bunch. The third guard who plays a lot and is the least known of the three is Jordan Woodard who was the second leading scorer for the Sooners at 13 points per game while also shooting a scintillating 45 percent from behind the three-point line (just one percentage point behind Hield). Inside it is all about Khadeem Lattin and Ryan Spangler, the latter of whom is more of a floor spacer shooting a respectable 36 percent from three point range allowing more space for Cousins Hield and Woodard to operate in the paint. Lattin is a physical force who attacks the boards and provides little on the offensive end. The key is how well Oklahoma operates their sets on offense and if the guards for Oklahoma can handle Villanova’s ball pressure, something no team has been able to defeat thus far.

Odds for a Villanova National Title:

The Wildcats were my pick for the national title after the first weekend with their elite defense, top guards, and ability to limit turnovers and hit free throws. This will be their toughest test as they will face a team that also has three very good to elite guards.

Odds: 60 %

Odds for an Oklahoma National Title:

Oklahoma has the best player left in the tournament in Buddy Hield and with that, that means they will have a chance no matter who they play. The key will be the play of Spangler, who can create mismatches against opposing bigs and space the floor.

Odds: 50 %

My Pick: Villanova 68 Oklahoma 64

 

 

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