Five Big Surprises in Fantasy Football so far this Season

A quick look back at some August draft notes is fairly revealing just three weeks into the NFL’s regular season. We know hindsight is always 20/20, but no doubt some things would shake out a lot differently if we redrafted today. Here are a few things that jump off the pages as we move into October.

The Miami backfield: This was a fairly well-defined committee heading into fantasy drafts this summer. Jordan Howard was the early-down and goal-line thumper. Matt Breida slated in for third-down pass-catching along with a fair share of carries to keep Howard fresh. Miles Gaskin would compete with the likes of Patrick Laird and Kalen Ballage for a roster spot. The only thing fantasy owners got right in this one was Laird and Ballage losing out. Howard has basically been phased out, save for a few goal-line carries thus far while Breida has been a complete non-factor. This is Gaskin’s backfield for him to lose now, but production-wise he still may not be a top 20 scorer all too often.

Kyler Murray: He’s a stud and we knew going in he’s a stud, but his boxscores are quickly resembling that of what we saw from Lamar Jackson last season. Maybe this isn’t the biggest surprise, but Murray’s August ADP suggests that he’s going to be drafted a lot earlier in 2021. Whenever a QB rushes for 60+ yards per game, it’s like having an extra player in your FFL lineup.

Noah Fant / Jonnu Smith: These guys have officially arrived into the club. You know which club I’m talking about. “TE1 VIP Status” of course. Looking back at the draft rankers and these two were mixed in with the likes of Irv Smith, Jace Sternberger, Ian Thomas and Blake Jarwin. It’s quite obvious both Noah and Jonnu have created the same separation here we’re also seeing them get from defenders on the field. Plug and play these guys with confidence each week.

Diontae Johnson: Yes, he was concussed in week three and yes, this may have cost you a game early in the season. But he’s emerged as a target hog for Ben Roethlisberger on the field with 23 through the first two games and I expect that to continue when he returns. This would be a good time to buy Johnson low, especially in dynasty leagues as free agent to be JuJu Smith-Schuster could be on the move this offseason.

And finally, the most exciting yet perplexing star of September…

James Robinson: I’ve been referring to J-Rob as the second coming of James Conner 2018. I believe this guy is a difference maker and will be a league winner for owners who were savy enough to jump on him early. He runs downhill with strength and the YAC metrics are clearly in his favor. We purchased 36 RBs in our auction league draft back on September 5th, the final weekend before the 2020 NFL season kicked off. Like most other leagues, J.K. Dobbins, Phillip Lindsay and Breida were among the usual cast members who were grabbed ahead of Robinson, along with his own teammates Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo. Someone had to emerge in this crowded backfield, right?

Now those who missed out are wondering what it’ll take to acquire him, while J-Rob owners want to net fair value in return. Having been approached with a trade of a 2021 2nd rounder (which I referred to as a “clown offer”), I took to Twitter for a little survey research. 50% of 415 voters (it’s either 207 or 208) answered YES to the 2021 2nd rounder being “market value”, while 38% of 142 voters answered YES it’s “a clown offer” in a separate poll.

@FFMercenary tweeted in the comment section “A 2nd wasn’t enough, before Thursday night, in one of my leagues” while @GMenJay countered “A 2nd is decent but I’d rather hang onto him and take the chance he’s a true stud at that price”.

@FFA_Meng wrote “Probably a late 1st or more at this point”, and @brakem23 already dealt him tweeting “I just got Chark straight up. I feel pretty good about that. Dynasty”.

A final thought on J-Rob right now. Be wary of those trying to steal him for peanuts. One last Twitter poll which received only 67 votes revealed 54% of those responding favored Robinson over Darren Waller in a 10-team, start 2-TE, ppr format. Not only do I believe Robinson is a difference maker, but he’s a firm hold for me right now.

Enjoy the games and happy trading this season!

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