Five QBs You Are Too Low On (#FantasyFootball)

Hello fantasy friends. Last week I wrote about players to buy and sell in dynasty leagues. This week I am going to start a series on players at each position that you are too low on in redraft leagues. I am using a few different reference points to gauge the ADPs such as mock drafts I am apart of, mocks I see other industry guys post, and FANTASYPROS consensus rankings. I am going to start today at the QB position and touch on five guys that are going too low that will be difference makers if they stay at their current ADPs.

I would like to first say that you will rarely see me take a QB before round 8 and even then that is too early for me. I talked last week about how I had Lamar Jackson in 18 of 28 leagues last year and that paid off in a huge way. I was able to get Lamar in round 10 or later every time, sometimes as late as round 12 or 13. I went back and looked at three drafts I did last year in Vegas in the NFFC Primetime events to compare two QBs who averaged less than one ppg difference who went at very different points in the draft. Deshaun Watson had a great 2019 campaign putting up 331.98 total points which was good for 22.13ppg. Watson only played in 15 games so had he played in 16, he would have finished as the #2 QB on the season, assuming he put up 17 or more points in week 17. Watson was picked 56,74, and 76th overall in each of the three drafts. Now let’s take a look at the real #2 QB last season, Dak Prescott. Dak finished the season with 348.78 total points which was good for 21.80ppg. Dak was picked 174, 166, and 141st overall in the same three drafts. This is a HUGE difference in ADP. There are always going to be QBs who have big years who were drafted in double-digit rounds. Josh Allen and Russell Wilson are two other QBs who finished inside the top 10 and were picked outside of the first 10 rounds in most drafts. These are the QBs we should be looking to target in all of our one QB leagues. This is a long way of saying DO NOT draft QBs early in single QB leagues as there are always draft day values and you will surely weaken your RB and WR core by doing so. Let’s dive in, shall we?

Baker Mayfield

Let’s start with an easy one in Baker Mayfield. What makes Baker an easy one? HE SUCKED last year, plain and simple. He threw almost as many interceptions (21) as touchdowns (22). His touchdown % was down to 4.1% from 5.6% in 2018 and he averaged 27 fewer passing yards per game in 2019. So what was so different in 2019 vs 2018 where he had a great rookie season? Let’s start with the elephant in the room (pun intended?) Freddie Kitchens. He was down-right awful in his only full year as a head coach for the Browns. Todd Monken who was the Browns OC last year is on record saying the Browns were a “total mess” and that Kitchens’ deviated from the game plan all the time. Kitchens wasn’t the only thing wrong with the Browns and Baker last season. According to PFF, the Browns had the No. 2 ranked o-line in 2018 which fell to 23rd in 2019. Baker was sacked 40 times in 2019 which was good for 9th in the NFL. Baker wasn’t playing with a full arsenal at his disposal either with WR Odell Beckham Jr. playing injured most of the season and TE David Njoku only playing four games due to a broken wrist. The Browns addressed their offensive line issue by signing OT Jack Conklin and tight end Austin Hooper to add yet another weapon for Baker and the Browns. The Browns will also be looking to add another offensive linemen in the draft to bolster the line even more. The Browns could once again have a top 5 offensive line in 2020.

Let’s not forget that Baker was a consensus top 10 pick at QB last year and routinely went in round 7 and carried an ADP of 78. Currently, he is going at ADP 111, end of round 9. If Baker stays here or slips into early round 10, we could get a nice value on a QB that’s sure to have a bounceback 2020 season.

Daniel Jones

Jones is second on my list and as of now, he will be one of my biggest QB targets when draft season rolls around. He finished with 227 total points in 13 games, good for an average of 17.46 per game. Jones had a very up and down rookie season. When he was on, he was on! He had four games of 28 or more fantasy points. Jones has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Saquan Barkley is a top-three RB, Evan Engram is one of the most talented tight ends in the game, and while not big names, the Giants have a good WR core in Sterling Shepherd, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton who had a great rookie season. Let’s also remember that we want to target QBs who offer something with their legs if we can. Jones rushed for 279 yards in 13 games, good for 21 a game which will add a little something extra to his year-end point totals. There are a lot of mock experts who have the Giants taking a tackle with their first pick in the draft. If this does happen, this will give the Giants who ranked middle of the pack last year a boost at the o-line position. Jones is currently going as the 18th QB off the board which is way too late. I have Jones as my QB 10 right now and will be more than happy to take him in rounds 10-12 all draft season.

Ben Roethlisberger

There isn’t too much to say about Ben as we all know who he is and what he will do if healthy. A healthy Ben will throw the ball 600+ times which is what we need from a QB who doesn’t run. Roethlisberger is getting old and probably won’t be in the league too much longer, however, I do think Ben is going to come out and have one more big season as he tries to win another Superbowl. Ben has the weapons to be a top 10 QB one more time. I am personally higher than most on Juju Smith-Schuster (currently my WR7) who Ben will target at a very high rate in 2020. Along with Juju, there is second-year WR Diontae Johnson and third-year WR James Washington, both flashed in 2019 with very poor QB play. The running backs are also strong with James Connor and Jaylen Samuels, both can catch out of the backfield. The Steelers also added a big red-zone target in Eric Ebron this offseason to complement their speedy, smaller WR core. If Ben can stay healthy, look for him to bounce back into the top 10, possibly top 7 in QB ranks in 2020. Ben is currently being drafted after guys like Drew Lock and Sam Darnold with an ADP of 174, middle of round 13. Even if Ben does not get back to a top 10 QB, a healthy Ben will almost certainly outscore QBs like Lock, Darnold, and other QBs going before him.

Jared Goff

This is a weird one for me. Why are people so down on Goff? Did he have a great year last year? No, certainly not. However, I think the overall perception is that he had a bad 2019 campaign and that certainly isn’t true either. Goff has played in 47 of 48 games in his first three full seasons as a starter, so we know he is durable. Goff passed for over 4600 yards in each of the past two seasons, averaging over 290 passing yards per game. So why did Goff go from QB 7 in 2018 to QB 13 in 2019? In a word, touchdowns. Goff only threw for 22 TDs last year vs his 32 back in 2018. Is this all on Goff? I do not believe so. Last week I wrote about how Brandin Cooks is a buy-low for the same reason I think Goff is going too low in ADP so far this off-season. That reason is the offensive line. The Rams went from a top 10 offensive line in 2018 to a bottom three line in 2019. We all know Goff isn’t a great scrambler (40 yards in 2019) so when his line falls apart it only makes sense that he is going to struggle. The reason for optimism is that the Rams have resigned two offensive linemen and are linked to drafting one, if not two in the upcoming draft.

The Rams also parted ways with Todd Gurley this offseason. Assuming the Rams do not address RB early in the draft, they will most likely look to have an RBBC between Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. These two are not even in the same league as Todd Gurley which puts more emphasis on Goff and the passing game. Look for Goff to once again be among the league leaders in pass attempts but with better results than that of 2019.

Tyrod Taylor

Tyrod Taylor is the last guy on my list for QBs to target in this year’s draft and this one may sound a bit odd to you but just hear me out. Taylor is going undrafted in most leagues and where he is being drafted, it isn’t until the last round or two. Taylor isn’t going to be a top 5 QB, hell he most likely isn’t even going to start the entire season. So why am I telling you to draft Tyrod in 2020? The main reason is that he is FREE. You can load up on the more important RB and WR positions while your league mates fight for QBs early. We can stream him for however long he is under center for the Chargers and once he is benched for whatever rookie the Chargers draft, we can stream at the quarterback position. Every year there are many good options just sitting on the wire waiting for a home on your team.

Last year we learned that if we want an unstoppable team, we need the Konami code at QB (Lamar Jackson). That is to say, a QB who runs is the biggest weapon we can have for fantasy. In the three seasons Taylor was a starter in Buffalo, he averaged 36 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 TDs rushing. If Tyrod can have similar numbers this season, I see absolutely no reason why Taylor can’t be a back end QB1 while he is starting, at little to no draft capital.

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