Four Down Territory: NFL Week 4

October 2, 2019
256

First Down

Kirk Cousins changed the game when he signed the first fully guaranteed contract back in 2018. The Michigan State product inked a deal that would give him $84 million over the course of three years.

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What has Cousins given the Vikings since then?

The numbers are favorable. Last year he was top ten in both passing yards and touchdowns. The average fan could look at a Kirk Cousins stat line and say, frequently, that he was productive. Luckily, we go a little deeper than the average fan to assess players.

Total QBR is a stat created by ESPN that was released in 2011. Its goal is to show how a quarterback impacts the game from all levels (rushing, passing, penalties) and adds situational context to every play. The stat is then generated out of a possible 100 points to show how the quarterback truly impacted the game.

Wanna guess where Kirk Cousins ranked in QBR in 2018?

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Out of 33 eligible quarterbacks Cousins ranked 14th in Total QBR in 2018 with a 59.5 score out of 100. If you’re grading on a high school scale that’s a failing grade. If you’re grading on a college scale that is also a failing grade.

But this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Over the course of his career (excluding this year) Cousins’ QBR is 59.4.

Again, that’s a failing grade for my non-teachers out there.

The most alarming stat for Cousins is his record against winning teams:

For my math nerds that’s a .19 win percentage. Again, a failing grade.

Are you getting the theme here?

The Vikings have surrounded Cousins with arguable the best receiving duo (I know, Cleveland, we see you. No one is overlooking Odell and Juice.) and one of the best running backs in the league in Dalvin Cook. Granted, Cook has been fighting injuries in his young career but when healthy he’s a three down back that can do it all.

The flaws in Cousins’ game are starting rub teammates the wrong way.

Let’s start with his favorite target: Adam Thielen.

Throw number 1:

It’s 4th down and Adam gets good separation on the slant route; the receiver and the tight end do a great job of clearing out the middle of the field. All Cousins has to do is throw a basic slant across the middle.

Annnnnndddd it’s behind him.

That’s not the only throw that grinds Thielen’s gears.

After throws like that and losing 16-6 to Chicago on Sunday Adam had decided that enough was enough and subtweet Cousins through the media.

Translation: “Bruh why tf are we paying you all this money and you can’t throw it in the ocean from the shore.”

Thielen’s partner, Stefon Diggs, has taken another approach to show his agitation with Cousins.

If 2019 has taught me anything it’s that Instagram follows are law. Diggs wants out and if Belechik is the man we say he is (and by all means he is) the Stefon may have been overthrown for the last time in Minnesota.

A few house cleaning items since we’re talking about the Vikings.

Remember the time their fans went to Philly and did that corny ass “skol” chant on the Rocky steps only to lose 38-7 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles?

You don’t? Have no fear; I GOT YOU.

 

Second Down 

Let’s talk about this Gardner Minshew fella.

The king of the flavor savor impressed during the Jags win against the Broncos Sunday. I mean…check out this TD pass.

The wiggle, the drip, the sauce. Kid’s got something.

Now I’m not going to anoint him as the next great quarterback but since he’s taken over his numbers have been impressive.

He’s completing 69.4% of his passes, thrown seven touchdowns compared to one interception, and posted a 2-1 record.

It’d be very Skip Bayless of me to mention QBR for Cousins and not for Minshew so his is at 46.7. Which is failing.

Minshew’s next test will be against a Carolina defense that ranks number one in stopping the pass.

Hopefully he channels whatever power source he’s been using to survive.

Third Down

The Browns blew the Ravens out on Sunday but that’s the third most interesting thing that occurred during that game.

First there was that moment Odell Beckam and Marlon Humphrey got in a little kerfuffle that ended with Beckham being chocked out like it’s Wrestlemania ’96.

You gotta have a certain level of disrespect in your spirit to choke a man out with your fists. What are the requirements before joining the Ravens Ring of Honor? Can we change them just this one time to give Marlon a banner?

The second talking point from this game is Baker Mayfield and the ever growing chip on his shoulder the moment someone doesn’t say he’s the best in the world.

I get it, he thrives off people sleeping on him. But the thing is…he’s played terrible all year until Sunday. What are we supposed to say? You have two All-Pro receivers and a stud at running back and all that offense could muster was 29 points over three weeks.

Baker’s fun now but I give it one year before he’s the annoying middle child that’s always looking for attention.

Fourth Down 

Last week I went 9-6 overall in picking games. Let’s give it another whirl. Teams I predict to win are in red.

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle

Sunday Afternoon

New York Jets @ Philadelphia 

Jacksonville @ Carolina

Minnesota @ New York Giants

Atlanta @ Houston

Embed from Getty Images

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Buffalo @ Tennessee 

Arizona @ Cincinnati

New England @ Washington

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Chicago @ Oakland (Prop Bet: Khalil Mack has 4 sacks)

Denver @ Los Angeles Chargers

Green Bay @ Dallas

Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Monday Night Football 

Cleveland @ San Francisco 

 

Extra Points 

Just a reminder to how smart football players truly are.

Sean Mcdermott’s petty level is super saiyan

Don’t forget that Colin Kaepernick is being blackballed for protesting police brutality and racial inequality in this country.

@madads14

As always, thanks for reading.

 

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October 2, 2019
256