Four Down Territory: Stay in School, Kids.
First Down
Trevor Lawrence will be the first overall pick in the 2021 draft barring injury.
That’s not really earth shattering; it’s not even news.
What is news?
Trevor’s comments about potentially staying at Clemson.
If the draft were to happen tomorrow the top four teams would go someting like this:
Out of the top ten the only teams that wouldn’t draft Lawrence are Miami, Cincinnati, and the Chargers.
The other seven would sell their soul to draft him.
But would Trevor want to go to any of those franchises? The potential number one pick doesn’t drop a quote like that if he really isn’t considering staying in school and trying again next year.
It wouldn’t be the first time a top signal caller refused to go a team that drafted him.
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John Elway famously refused to go to the Colts, Eli said no to San Diego, Jim Kelly signed with the USFL because he refused to play in Buffalo. That obviously changed but as the most powerful position in all of sports the quarterbacks can conduct business in ways that other players cannot.
Serious question: would you want to play for the Jets?
Of course not, no one is excited to play for the Jets. Sure, Joe Douglas is respected across the league but how many careers, both players and front office personnel, have died in East Rutherford?
A lot. The answer is a lot.
So let’s play a game.
Trevor decides he’s done playing for free and declares he’s leaving Clemson.
The Jets are overflowing with glee but wait a minute…
Trevor’s people tells the Jets to stop wasting their time because he’s not playing in New York.
Who is moving up? Who has the assets to jump up and grab him?
Let’s take a look.
According to DraftTek‘s trade value chart the number one pick is worth 3,000 points. If the team with the third overall pick wants to jump to the top spot then they need to come up with 800 points to create an equal value to the top team. This does not include players.
So what would teams be willing to trade?
Giants: 2021 first round pick (2nd overall), 2021 second round pick, and Evan Engram.
It might seem foolish to give up a good tight end while bringing in a new quarterback but the Giants receiving corps isn’t that bad and Barkley will be returning next year from a torn ACL. The offense could get by with a mid-tier tight end drafted later or picked up in free agency. It’ll also be nice having Lawrence on a reasonable contract for five years while Barkley gets his massive deal.
Jacksonville: 2021 first round pick (3rd overall), 2021 first round pick (from LA Rams), 2021 2nd round pick (from Minnesota), and a 2022 fourth round pick.
The Jaguars looked foolish for trading Ramsey and Ngakoue but if those picks lead to Trevor Lawrence then all is forgiven. The luxury have multiple first and second round picks are almost too good to be true for Joe Douglas and the Jets. That’s the kind of move that can kick start a franchise in the right direction. An extra first round pick in 2022 is just icing on the cake.
Atlanta: 2021 first round pick (4th overall), 2022 first round pick, 2021 second round pick, 2022 third round pick, Julio Jones.
Getting Sam Darnold a receiver like Julio Jones, no matter how old he is, would be an immediate upgrade. If the Falcons are making this move the Matt Ryan is either already gone or Atlanta already has a deal in place.
It may finally break whatever curse has been over that franchise since 28-3.
Or Trevor could go back to Clemson and pray that the Jets aren’t picking in the same spot next year. Wouldn’t put money on that bet, though.
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