Four Down Territory: Throw it Over them Mountains
First Down
As the NFL playoffs are fastly approaching we have a pretty good sense of the top dog in each conference. Kansas City, no surprise to anyone, is on top of the AFC and after beating the Lions on Sunday and the Saints losing to Philadelphia the Packers are kings of the NFC. The one seeds look unstoppable but what teams, if any, have the best shot of taking them out come playoff time?
Well, let’s see.
Starting off in the AFC. Here’s the playoff picture:
So, who has the best shot of knocking of Kansas City? First we have to figure out the formula to beating them.
The best way to beat the Chiefs is not the play them but since that’s not possible we have to look the teams that gave them fits and how they did it.
The strength of Kansas City is obviously Patrick Mahomes. He’s the reigning Super Bowl MVP and will probably win league MVP this year. He can do everything you want your QB to do at the highest of levels. Andy Reid has surronded him with a plethora of weapons and they can beat you multiple ways. For the best chance to win let’s look back to their game against Las Vegas week five.
If you’re going to beat the Chiefs the main thing is keeping Mahomes off the field. That offense can score in a blink but the less time they’re on the field the better your chances. Vegas held the ball ten extra minutes during that contest and it was just enough. The next biggest factor in beating the Chiefs is the ability to score 25+ points. Kansas City is second in the league in points scored per game (31.0) and total points (403). The last thing is to hit Mahomes as much as possible with your front four. Every quarterback’s greatest weakness is catching a case of happy feet from being hit too often but blitzing to get pressure on Mahomes through your secondary will not end well. You have to rush the passer without sending help.
With those factors in mind let’s rank the top three teams that can take out the Chiefs.
Honorable Mention: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins and Chiefs squared off week 14 and the Chiefs won after coming from behind in the first half. Mahomes threw three interceptions but it didn’t matter overall. Miami’s defense is legit and if they got a second crack at the champs the tide may turn in a different direction.
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Three: Tennessee Titans
The Titans rank second in rushing yards per game. They run the ball as well as anyone and that’s the only shot they have at beating the Chiefs. Derrick Henry is a force and tackling him over and over will take its toll. As great as they are at running the ball they’re worse at rushing the quarterback. The Titans are dead last in sacks and sack percentage. It’s only a matter of time before Tyreek Hill is running wide open down the field and the inability to rush the passer will equal a long day if the Titans make it to Kansas City. They’ll need to play the longest game of keep-away in the history of football to win.
Two: Baltimore Ravens
The first thing the Ravens need to do is clinch a playoff spot before worrying about the Chiefs. The offense has taken a step back from its elite status last year but it’s still good enough to keep Mahomes off the field. I mean…they still lead the league in rushing and Lamar Jackson is still a top ten QB. Baltimore is a middle-of-the-pack team on the sack and sack percentage front but their bread and butter are forcing fumbles; they rank second in the league in that category.
One: Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, the Steelers are on a two game slide. Yes, it’s fair to question their schedule outside of the Titans and Ravens. Yes, all of your questions are fair. With that being said, the Steelers still have the best shot at beating the Chiefs. They rank first in the league in turnover differential, they’re tied for first with the most turnovers, they give up the fewest points per game, they lead the league in sacks, and rank second in sack percentage. They can get to the QB with their front four and can give the offense the ball with a short field.
The Steelers’ problems will come rushing the ball. Currently, they’re second-to-last in the league in rushing yards per game. There are ways around that (short passes that are the same as runs) and that’s proven by their time-of-possession numbers, which is fifth in the league.
Listen, any given Sunday is really a thing but whoever gets the honor of playing Kansas City has to defend this.
Good luck.
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