Four Dynasty Deep-Dive Buy Lows (#FantasyFootball)
The NFL Draft is over and team rosters are more or less set until training camp where we might get some injuries — assuming we get training camp. The same can be said for most dynasty teams. Your rookie draft is either already done or will be done over the next few weeks. Now it’s time to start trading (is there ever a time to stop trading?).
This is the time to prove you are smarter than your league mates. You want to find that diamond in the rough, that needle in a haystack, that player that has been given up on or completely overlooked. That, dare I say, “Buy Low” player.
The next four players are guys I’ve been trying to add for cheap in all my leagues. I own at least one share of every player on this list and I’m looking to add more. The one thing all these guys have in common, they can be had for cheap…real cheap. In fact, one or more of these guys could be on the waiver wire depending on how deep your league is.
So without further ado, my deep-dive buy low’s…
RB Damien Harris
The time to buy the 2019 third-round pick is now. His value can’t get any lower and I expect good things from him in the next year-plus. First, let’s take a look at the Patriot’s current depth chart at running back.
James White is only signed through 2020, and he will be 29 by the start of 2021. That’s a perfect storm for the Patriots to let him walk. Rex Burkhead is not only a free agent in 2021, but his $1m dead cap number compared to his near $4m cap hit in 2020, there is no guarantee he is playing for the Patriots when the season kicks off.
Brandon Bolden’s contract is even easier to move on from than is Burkhead’s, as Bolden has only $500k of dead cap left on his deal. But, even if the Patriots do keep Bolden around for 2020, he is also a free agent in 2021.
That leaves Sony Michel with whom the Patriots have yet to fully commit to and his knee issues are troublesome, to say the least.
If you’re buying Harris, you likely won’t reap the benefit until 2021, but it will be well worth it at the price you have to pay for him right now.
RB Nyheim Hines
Hines went from 85 carries and 81 targets in his rookie season with Andrew Luck under center to a mere 52 carries and 58 targets last year with Jacoby Brissett. Now enter Philip Rivers. Since 2015, only once did a Chargers running back not finish the season as at least the No. 2 receiver on the team.
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In 2019 it was Austin Ekeler who finished second with 108 targets. In 2018 and 2017 it was Melvin Gordon with 66 and 83 targets respectively — finishing No. 2 on the team in targets both years. His 2018 number of 66 targets was done in an injury-shortened 12 game season.
In 2015, it was Danny Woodhead who led the team in targets with 106 in a year that saw Keenan Allen only played 8 games. 2016 was the one outlier that saw Gordon only get 57 targets, but in his defense, the Chargers had three wide-receivers with over 93 targets that season. This was a long-winded way to say that Philip Rivers likes to throw it to his running backs, and I didn’t even mention a guy by the name of LaDainian Tomlinson.
We know that Marlon Mack is not a pass catcher, and judging by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor’s mere 42 catches compared to 926 carries in his college career, it’s pretty safe to say that he isn’t going to catch passes either.
Hines could easily approach the numbers he saw his rookie season, and potentially surpass them. I just drafted Hines in the 10th round of a 17 team Guillotine league, 149th overall. In other words…free. Buy now!
WR Corey Davis
“Will all my Corey Davis truthers please raise their hands?”
“Okay, it looks like all six of us are here. To everyone else, hear me out.”
First, Corey Davis never truly had a good quarterback to work with being stuck with Marcus Mariotta his entire career. And yes, he had Ryan Tannehill last year and Tannehill and A.J. Brown had great chemistry, leaving Davis as the second or third fiddle in the passing game. But, we have to remember, this coaching staff did not draft Corey Davis. They did, however, draft A.J. Brown and signed Ryan Tannehill to eventually replace another guy they did not draft, Marcus Mariotta. They had no connection to either guy and were more than ready to move on from them.
The Titans did the best thing for you if you are still holding on to Corey Davis, they declined his fifth-year option, making him a free agent at the end of the 2020 season. As a former first-round pick and a guy that has shown flashes, Davis will get a shot somewhere else. We can only hope it’s a better situation than the one he had with the Titans — quite frankly, it can’t be much worse.
At this point for Corey Davis, you have to wipe his slate clean. You aren’t getting first-round production out of him, so holding him to that standard and calling him a bust won’t get you anything. See if you can buy Davis low and hope he can return WR3 value for the rest of his career. I recently got him for a late third-round rookie pick, and that’s about where I would put his value.
TE Irv Smith Jr.
My final buy-low comes from the tight end position, Mr. Irv Smith Jr. Going into his second year, he was a player that was overshadowed by fellow tight ends’ Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson in last year’s rookie class, but ISJ is just as athletic as those guys and I think he is primed for a breakout season in 2020.
All the pundits will point out that Kyle Rudolph is still there and will get plenty of work, but Rudolph’s snap percentage dropped as the season wore on while ISJ’s rose. The pundits will also point out that the Vikings are a run-first team with target hog Adam Thielen still with the team. However, after Thielen, they don’t have much. Yes, they drafted Justin Jefferson, and I expect him to be a good receiver, but he is also still a rookie and has a lot to learn.
ISJ could easily find himself the No.2 option in the passing game and the No. 3 option overall behind Thielen and Dalvin Cook. When Kirk Cousins was still in Washington he loved targetting tight ends, more specifically, Jordan Reed. He even helped Vernon Davis revive his career when Reed was out with injuries.
I’ve called Irv Smith Jr. this year’s Mark Andrews and I will stand by that comp. If there is an owner in your league frustrated that ISJ didn’t do much last season, swoop in a buy him now. After 2020, his price will be much higher.
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