Free FanDuel NFL Advice for Week 1, Sunday 9/11/2016

Every week during the NFL season I’ll be publishing my cash game lineup for FanDuel and the rationale behind all my selections. Last season I did a series of articles during the preseason as my lineup changed due to injuries and players’ preseason performances. I intend to do the same thing this season, so it’s doubtful what you see below is a finished product.

Again, this is my cash game lineup, and while I always put it in a few GPPs, there are other players at a couple of positions better suited for tournaments.

If you’re new to DFS, want to brush up a bit, or simply want to know my thought process in selecting my players, I encourage you to read my 10 Commandments of NFL Daily Fantasy Sports.

Now, on to the lineup.

QB Derek Carr ($7,700) Carr is an emerging talent on a team that looks to take the next step in 2016. He faces a New Orleans pass defense by virtually every metric. They were ranked 32nd by Football Outsiders and gave up an average of 24.5 FD points a game to opposing QBs last season. Carr, who averaged 17.8 points per game in 2015, only needs 15.4 to pay off his salary in cash games. The game has an O/U of 50.5, with New Orleans favored by 1, both positive indicators for Carr.

RB Jeremy Langford ($6,200) Langford was a beast when Matt Forte was injured last season, averaging 23 FD points per game during that three-game span. He was so good, the Bears opted not to resign Forte. The match-up is average, as Houston was ranked 13th against the run last year. The game is expected to remain close, as Houston is favored by 4. Even in the event of Houston going up big, Langford caught 13 passes while Forte was out.

RB Duke Johnson ($5,600) Cleveland doesn’t have many weapons and coach Hue Jackson has repeatedly stated he plans on using Johnson in a variety of roles, even lining him up at wide receiver. The Eagles ranked 28th against the run and 15th against covering opposing RBs in the passing game. Even though the Eagles are a healthy 6 point favorite, Johnson was targeted 74 times in the passing game (6th among RBs) so he should stay involved throughout.

WR Julio Jones ($9,000) If you read any of my NFL articles last season, you know that I like to spend up at WR in cash games and use #1 receivers, who get a lot of targets since receivers are dependent on the play call and the QB. Jones was targeted a league-leading 203 times (catching 67%.) He faces a Tampa Bay defense ranked 26th against the pass by Football Outsiders in a game with a 48 O/U.

WR Dez Bryant ($8,000) Bryant’s 2015 season was a complete wash due to injury, an unstable QB situation and not showing up to camp in shape after a holdout. Hopefully, these things are behind him now. He was the #3 ranked fantasy WR in 2014 and gets to open the season against a bad Giants secondary. The Giants were ranked 28th against the pass last season and the game features a 49.5 O/U.

WR Mike Evans ($7,900) Evans suffered through a terrible start to the 2015 season, trying to build rapport with rookie QB Jameis Winston, while dealing with a bad case of the drops ( he only caught 50% of his 148 targets.) However, he ended the season well and those 148 targets were good for 10th in the NFL. He’ll face a Falcons defense ranked 22nd against the pass in what well could turn into a shootout.

TE Delanie Walker ($6,500) The TE position will again be a black hole in 2016, as only a handful are playable in cash DFS contests. Walker was rookie QB Marcus Mariota‘s security blanket last season, leading NFL TEs in targets with 133 (of which he caught 70.7%.) While Minnesota’s 11th ranked 2015 pass defense looks like a tough match-up, they were actually ranked 25th against opposing TEs, by Football Outsiders.

K Matt Bryant ($4,500) Kickers can be a crap shoot, so I have five blocks to check in selecting one. Cheap, playing at home, playing in a dome, high O/U and favored by Vegas. Bryant checks all five blocks.

DEF LA Rams ($4,500) Seems strange to say LA Rams again, doesn’t it? At any rate, fantasy defenses are very turnover and sack dependent, so I try to target good defenses against teams with bad QBs and bad offensive lines. I’ll gladly take my chances with a good Rams defense going against either Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert, who will be trying to implement Chip Kelly’s offense in Week 1.

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