Free FanDuel NFL Advice for Week 1, Sunday 9/11/2016 (Update)
Every week during the NFL season I’ll be publishing my cash game lineup for FanDuel and the rationale behind all my selections. Last season I did a series of articles during the preseason as my lineup changed due to injuries and players’ preseason performances. Just as last season, my initial line-up didn’t survive the preseason, so this is my first update.
Again, this is my cash game lineup, and while I always put it in a few GPPs, there are other players at a couple of positions better suited for tournaments.
If you’re new to DFS, want to brush up a bit, or simply want to know my thought process in selecting my players, I encourage you to read my 10 Commandments of NFL Daily Fantasy Sports.
Now, on to the lineup.
QB Dak Prescott ($5,000) OK, now hear me out here. Cash games are about a player’s floor rather than his ceiling and Prescott has had an amazing preseason, leading the NFL in passing yards, while adding over 50 yards on the ground (I love running QBs in cash games.) The Giants allowed opposing QBs 21.25 Fanduel points last season (30th in the NFL and were ranked 28th against the pass by Football Outsiders. The game features a 47.5 O/U.
RB Adrian Peterson ($8,200) Three things in life are certain: death, taxes and the Vikings riding Peterson. There’s no much I can say about Peterson that hasn’t already been said and he’s still going strong at 31. Tennessee’s run defense was ranked 24th last season as they gave up 112 yards per game in the AFC South, a division devoid of quality running backs.
RB Duke Johnson ($5,600) Cleveland doesn’t have many weapons and coach Hue Jackson has repeatedly stated he plans on using Johnson in a variety of roles, even lining him up at wide receiver. The Eagles ranked 28th against the run and 15th against covering opposing RBs in the passing game. Even though the Eagles are a healthy 6 point favorite, Johnson was targeted 74 times in the passing game (6th among RBs) so he should stay involved throughout.
WR Odell Beckham Jr ($9,100) Not only is Beckham an elite receiver, but he always seems to play his best games against the Cowboys (remember that great, one-handed catch?) Beckham, who was targeted 10.53 times a game last season, gets to face a Dallas defense that has three starters suspended for the game. The Cowboys pass defense was ranked 17th against the pass in 2015, but with both DEs suspended, Eli Manning will have plenty of time to find Beckham.
WR Julio Jones ($9,000) If you read any of my NFL articles last season, you know that I like to spend up at WR in cash games and use #1 receivers, who get a lot of targets since receivers are dependent on the play call and the QB. Jones was targeted a league-leading 203 times (catching 67%.) He faces a Tampa Bay defense ranked 26th against the pass by Football Outsiders in a game with a 48 O/U.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400) Speaking of target monsters, Hopkins had 203 passes thrown his way last season by the likes of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, TJ Yates and Brandon Weeden and still managed to account for 1512 yards and 11 TDs. He’ll go up against the Chicago Bears 23rd ranked pass defense that had particular problems against opposing teams #1 receiver, ranking 31st in that category.
TE Travis Kelce ($6,400) The TE position will again be a black hole in 2016, as only a handful are playable in cash DFS contests. Kelce is an emerging star with the Chiefs, he was targeted 103 times last season, second only to WR Jeremy Maclin. He gets a great match-up as well. The Chargers were ranked 21st against the pass overall, by Football Outsiders but 31st against the TE position.
K Matt Bryant ($4,500) Kickers can be a crap shoot, so I have five blocks to check in selecting one. Cheap, playing at home, playing in a dome, high O/U and favored by Vegas. Bryant checks all five blocks.
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DEF LA Rams ($4,500) Seems strange to say LA Rams again, doesn’t it? At any rate, fantasy defenses are very turnover and sack dependent, so I try to target good defenses against teams with bad QBs and bad offensive lines. I’ll gladly take my chances with a good Rams defense going against either Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert, who will be trying to implement Chip Kelly’s offense in Week 1.
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