What is up, guys! It’s been awhile since I’ve done what I call “a full article” for Fanduel. Due to time constraints, I had concentrated on value plays only. Tonight though I’ll treat you to the full-blown analysis for tonight’s slate of games. It has been a rough couple of days for me in the Fanduel world, but I’ve built lineups blindly because I didn’t have time for my research. Not today. Here is the format for the new readers…
Game Winner My Game Winner will be my top play for the position. I’ll be using a combination of the matchup, recent performances, history against the current opponent and my gut to make my choices for the top play.
Dunk A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside and is someone who should give you the highest return on investment (ROI)
Half-Court Shot Otherwise known as a “punt play”. This player will be at, or near, minimum salary, but is someone I believe has a chance to greatly outperform the salary.
Pass A player deemed a Pass is someone who I’m doing just that. Passing on him. This is a top-tier player that I’ll be avoiding for various reasons. The matchup, price, recent performances, or just a gut feel are a few things I’ll take in an account.
So let’s get started…
NBA DFS Fanduel Lineup Advice and Analysis for 1/4/16
Point Guard
Game Winner Kyle Lowry, Raptors $8700
Lowry has played above expectations thus far into the season, and I’m expecting that to continue tonight against the Cavaliers, a team he traditionally plays well against. He had 49.6 fanduel points against them back in November and I’m expecting similar production tonight.
Dunk Mike Conley, Grizzlies $6700
He had two sub-par games against the Trailblazers earlier this season, but I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. In three regular season games last year he averaged over 41 fanduel points per game against them. With the Blazers on the second game of a back to back, expect Conley to continue with his great play tonight.
Half-Court Shot Darren Collison, Kings $5400
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Collison has hovered around the 30-minute mark since returning to the lineup, despite playing second fiddle to Rajon Rondo. His season fantasy point average is 23.1, but that number is trending up having scored 25 or more in five of his last six games. This game may have the highest pace of any game on the slate tonight, but some of the big name players will be hard to afford, Collison at his paltry $5400 is a steal.
Pass Kemba Walker, Hornets $8800
Walker has played great of late, thus, the reason his price has increased nearly $1,000 since Christmas, but I don’t like his matchup with the Warriors. He only had 10 fanduel points against them earlier in the season and struggled in one of the two games against them last year. His price has probably reached its high point, so I’ll wait for it to come back down before rostering him again.
Shooting Guard
Game Winner DeMar DeRozan, Raptors $8400
Defensively the Cavs struggle to guard both backcourt positions, and I have no issue with a lineup that includes both Dede and Lowry. He didn’t have a huge game against the Cavs last time they played but he is playing much better now than he was then. I’m putting his over/under at 40 fanduel points tonight and I’m taking the over.
Dunk Klay Thompson, Warriors $7600
Outside of that Dallas game in which Thompson dramatically struggled, he has been extremely hot. He is a better player at home, where he is playing tonight, and will most likely draw the defense of Jeremy Lin — please and thank you.
Half-Court Shot Rodney Hood, Jazz $5300
It’s hard to ignore what Hood has done over the last two games, scoring 39 and 43 fanduel points against the Blazers and Grizzlies respectively. He gets a dream matchup with the defensively challenged Houston Rockets, and will probably draw the non-existent James Harden defense. At $5300, he could be the value play of the night.
Pass James Harden, Rockets $10,000
Harden will be good from an NBA perspective tonight, but from a DFS standpoint, I’ll be avoiding him. His baseline value at $10,000 is 50 fanduel points, a number he hasn’t reached in six straight games. The Jazz play at one of the slower paces in the league, so even though the Jazz aren’t as formidable defensively without Rudy Gobert in the middle, they will still limit the number of possessions the Rockets will get.
Small Forward
Game Winner Kevin Durant, Thunder $9900
You’ll notice that Russell Westbrook was mysteriously absent from my point guard features. It’s because of this pick that I left him off the list. I think both Durant and Westbrook will be good plays tonight, even with the blowout factor, but I’d rather pay under 10k for Durant than nearly 11k for Westbrook. This game will be insanely fast paced and high scoring, I want as much exposure to it as I can and Durant’s relatively cheap price allows me to do that.
Dunk Gordon Hayward, Jazz $7500
Hayward is definitely a guy you have to play when the matchup is right, and the matchup is right tonight. The Rockets, despite Trevor Ariza being known for defense, has struggled to defend anyone all year. They have been especially bad defending the small forward position over the last three weeks, so after a sub-par outing versus Memphis, expect Hayward to bounce back nicely tonight.
Half-Court Shot Matt Barnes, Grizzlies $5100
Fresh off his two-game suspension, and his Instagram rant calling 2015 the worst year of his life, he is probably anxious to get back on the court and do what he loves — play basketball. It remains to be seen if he’ll immediately retake his starting spot, but either way, I’m expecting him to reach and exceed value tonight.
Pass Paul George, Pacers $8800
Two straight good games for George will have DFS players jumping to use him tonight, but I’m going to wait for one more game. The Miami Heat are a great defensive team and a slow-paced offensively, so that scares me off of a guy that 3 short games ago was struggling immensely.
Power Forward
Game Winner Draymond Green, Warriors $9700
After the game he had the other night, there is no way I’m fading him right now… that is all.
Dunk Nerlens Noel, 76ers $6300
Noel has looked more like the player he was last year over his last few games, not including his last outing in which he only received 22 minutes, he has flirted 40 fanduel points on several occasions. He has a pretty good matchup tonight with the Timberwolves and should be in that “just under 40” area again tonight.
Half-Court Shot Ersan Ilyasova, Pistons $5000
I didn’t watch the last Pistons games, but Ilyasova came out hot with 21.9 fanduel points at the half, then he disappeared ending the game with 21.9 points. I don’t know exactly what happened in that game, but it lowered his price back down to $5000. At $5000 he makes for a good value punt play against the Magic, a team that struggles to defend the stretch fours in this league.
Pass LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs $7100
With the way the Spurs run their offense, Aldridge’s production is hard to predict thus lowering his floor. On a large slate, there are better, more consistent, options.
Center
Game Winner DeMarcus Cousins, Kings $9700
After two sub-par games (one in which he was tossed out of the game), Cousins got back to form against the hapless Suns. The key for him will be to stay out of foul trouble, which could prove difficult with the way Westbrook attacks the rim. Cousins is always a risky play, but his upside can be worth it.
Dunk Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves $7800
Towns had an off night against the Bucks last time out and still had 31 fanduel points. He has a high floor because he does everything from block shots to rebound and will pick up an occasional steal or assist. Oh, and he is playing the 76ers tonight, I guess I should have led with that.
Half-Court Shot Jeff Withey, $4500
This guy has come out of seemingly nowhere and has filled up the stat sheet. He has back to back games with four blocks and was one rebound shy of three double-doubles over his last four games. As long as Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert are out of the Jazz lineup, Withey will be in mine.
Pass Greg Monroe, Bucks $7400
A matchup with the Spurs is why I’m passing on Monroe tonight.
The 6th Man
(additional players I like)
- PG Isaiah Thomas $8100
- PG Ricky Rubio $7700
- PG Shane Larkin $4500 (I wrote this before the news of Jarret Jack being out for the season)
- SF Andrew Wiggins $6700
- SF Omri Casspi $5700
- SF Rudy Gay $70000
- PF Kevin Love $7300
- Trevor Booker $4400 (if Favors is out)
- C Brook Lopez $8700
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