Alright, DFS fans, it’s once again time for my weekly free NFL DFS FanPicks advice! Week 11 was a tough one for me personally with guys such as Devonta Freeman and Charcandrick West going down with injuries in my lineups. This week, I plan to bounce back better than ever playing guys such as Adrian Peterson and Odell Beckham! Like always, hopefully, those of you who read this will be able to use my advice to win some cold hard cash. I don’t typically put TNF games in my advice columns, so none of the Thanksgiving Day games will be covered. So, take notes and good luck this week!
Here’s my free NFL DFS FanPicks advice for Week 12:
MVP: In reality the MVP is the best player at their given sport. This will be my overall favorite player at each position. I’ll look at his season stats, defensive matchup, recent performances and his career history versus this week’s opponent.
Value Pick: A value pick will be a player who has the potential to be a middle priced guy who could outperform the MVP style players.
Punt Play: This is a widely used term in the DFS world. This will be a player who will be low-owned in the larger tournaments, but will be a high-risk play.
Bust Candidate: This will be a potential top-rated player who I believe will have a down week. I’ll take a look at their recent performances and defensive matchup.
Quarterbacks
MVP: Carson Palmer, Cardinals ($7,500)
Besides Tom Brady, Palmer has easily been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks this season. He’s averaged 21.9 FanPicks points per contest and has a super favorable matchup for Week 12. Palmer will be facing off against his divisional rival the San Francisco 49ers who rank 20th versus opposing quarterbacks this season. The 49ers allowed Russell Wilson to throw three touchdowns versus them in Week 11, so I have high hopes for Palmer this week!
Value Pick: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers ($6,000)
I don’t expect Winston to duplicate his five touchdown Week 11 performance, but he’s going to have a nice game. He was actually the third rookie quarterback in NFL history to accomplish that five touchdown feat! He’s facing off against a dreadful Colts defense who have allowed 23.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so Winston should indeed be a nice value play.
Punt Play: Kirk Cousins, Redskins ($5,500)
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The last time I played Cousins was in Week 10 and he helped score me some nice cash! Week 12 once again brings us a great matchup to insert him into our DFS lineups. In 2015, the Giants rank 31st at defending against opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 24.8 fantasy points per contest. I feel very confident in Cousins this week and I’ll be streaming him in a lot of my lineups.
Bust Candidate: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($6,800)
When Big Ben has been healthy he’s been a great quarterback for DFS purposes this season. There’s one problem for Week 12, though, he’ll be traveling to Seattle to face off against the dreaded Seahawks defense. Between the Seahawks 4th ranked pass defense and the loud stadium environment, Roethlisberger could be in store for a long Week 12.
Running Backs
MVP: Adrian Peterson, Vikings ($7,100)
Peterson had a quiet game for Week 11, but he was able to find the end-zone. In 2015, he’s averaged 16.9 FanPicks points per contest, which I fully expect him to duplicate for this Week 12 game versus Atlanta. This season, the Falcons rank 27th versus opposing running backs, which spells good news for anyone who has AP in their lineups this week!
Value Pick: Chris Ivory, Jets ($5,500)
It’s been so hard to trust Ivory lately, but I have to play the matchup game here for my value pick. He’ll be facing off against the Jets’ AFC East rival Miami Dolphins, who were shredded by the Cowboys just a week ago. So far this year, Miami ranks 30th defending against opposing running backs, allowing an average of 23.5 fantasy points per contest. Cross your fingers and roll with Ivory for this Week 12 slate!
Punt Play: T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars ($5,000)
There’s only one Jacksonville player who I’m rolling the dice on this week and that’s Yeldon. He hasn’t been the most explosive DFS play this season, but he can easily score you all some points this week versus the Chargers. This season, San Diego ranks a league worst 32nd versus opposing running backs, allowing an average of 25.1 fantasy points per game.
Bust Candidate: Lamar Miller, Dolphins ($6,500)
Miller most likely burned some of you last week versus Dallas with his mediocre outing. This week he faces off against a surprisingly solid Jaguars defense who really knows how to defend against the run. In 2015, Jacksonville actually ranks 6th versus opposing running backs, so look elsewhere for DFS.
Wide Receivers
MVP: Odell Beckham, Giants ($8,500)
Beckham is going to be one of my favorite plays of this entire slate! He’s almost always a lock to have a good game and this week he draws a Redskins secondary that he should be able to take advantage of. This year, Washington ranks 26th versus opposing wideouts, allowing an average of 26.3 fantasy points per contest. I’ll be rolling out ODB in all of my FanPicks lineups for Week 12.
Value Pick: Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($7,000)
Evans is a little more expensive than my usual value pick, but I had to get him in this article because I’m ultra confident in the guy! With Winston as a great play this week, I believe Evans will be the biggest benefactor of his success. He’ll be facing off against a Colts defense who ranks 25th in the league this year at defending against opposing wide receivers. With Indy’s star cornerback Vontae Davis possibly missing this game, Evans’ value is great for Week 12!
Punt Play: John Brown, Cardinals ($5,500)
Brown finally got back in the swing of things this last week against the Bengals, catching a nice touchdown pass from Palmer. I think he’ll continue back to his early season ways this week against a lackluster San Francisco secondary. In 2015, the 49ers rank 27th versus opposing wideouts, allowing an average of 26.4 fantasy points per contest. Brown will for sure be a guy I target for Week 12.
Bust Candidate: Allen Robinson, Jaguars ($7,000)
Not only does Robinson’s high price tag scare me away from him, his matchup is a tough one as well. He’ll be facing off against a surprisingly solid Chargers secondary who will give him problems. This season, San Diego ranks 7th at defending against opposing wide receivers, allowing an average of just 18.5 fantasy points per game. With Mike Evans having the same 7K price tag, I’d rather go with him this week.
Tight Ends
MVP: Delanie Walker, Titans ($5,900)
It’s way too easy for me to write Rob Gronkowski’s name here, so I’m going to roll with Walker this week. He’ll be facing off against one of my favorite defenses to stream tight ends against the Oakland Raiders. This season, the Raiders rank a terrible 29th versus opposing tight ends, so Walker should have a nice game.
Value Pick: Antonio Gates, Chargers ($5,200)
I think we’re all going to witness a bounce back week for not only Philip Rivers but also Gates! The Chargers are going to be taking on the Jaguars, who rank 23rd this season versus opposing tight ends. Rivers has to get someone the football and I believe that man will be Gates.
Punt Play: Kyle Rudolph, Vikings ($3,800)
Rudolph is fresh off a 100+ yard and a touchdown Week 11 game! This week, he’ll be taking on the Falcons, who haven’t been very good at all against his position. So far this season, Atlanta ranks 26th at defending against opposing tight ends, so Rudolph will be a nice punt play.
Bust Candidate: Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($5,100)
I like a lot of tight ends for Week 12, but Kelce just isn’t one of them. Kansas City will be playing an ultra-tough Bills defense who ranks 7th this season versus opposing tight ends. There are a lot of better options out there for Week 12 than Kelce!
Defenses
MVP: Arizona Cardinals ($3,500)
Arizona will be facing off against Blaine Gabbert’s San Franciso 49ers this week! That’s about all I have to say about that…
Value Pick: New York Jets ($3,000)
The Jets may actually be the team that I target for most of my FanPicks lineups. They’re playing Miami who loves to turn the ball over, so take advantage of their low price tag.
Punt Play: Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,300)
I actually caught myself streaming the Jaguars defense for my season long leagues last week. This week, they’re playing the turnover prone San Diego Chargers who could give up some points to the Jags.
Bust Candidate: Denver Broncos, ($3,300)
Any team who is playing against this Patriots offense just shouldn’t be started for DFS purposes. I know that Denver has a great offense, but Brady has had no problems picking teams apart this year.
I truly hope this lineup advice will help you all win some money this weekend! I hope you all have a happy Thanksgiving!
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