Going Over or Under the Vegas Win Totals for Every AFC Team

According to ProFootballTalk, there is an “extremely small” chance that there will be no NFL season in 2020. It goes without saying that 2020 will be the strangest football season in history. The NFL has done a very poor job of informing the players and the fans on what the 2020 season will look like. Will there be fans at games? Will players have to wear masks? Will the Washington football team have jerseys in time?? With all the questions surrounding the NFL season, it does appear that there in fact will be a full 16 game season. So today, we’re checking out the Vegas win projections for all 16 AFC teams and deciding if we’d bet the over or under.

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AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

2019 Record: 2-14
2020 Vegas Win Total: 5.5

If not for a week 17 win against the Browns, the Bengals quietly wound up 1-15 and in the conversation for one of the worst teams of all-time. The season went downhill fast for the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals. First rounder Jonah Williams suffered a season-ending injury in OTAs, A.J. Green sat out the entire year, and Andy Dalton missed an entire month. All these setbacks led them to the first overall pick in 2020’s Draft, where they selected Joe Burrow out of LSU. Burrow had basically the best single season in college football history last year. He threw for 5,671 passing yards, 60 TDs, won the Heisman, took home the Manning award, won a National Championship, and was the 1st overall pick in the draft. Not too shabby. Looking at their roster, this should be a really fun offense on paper. Joe Mixon, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and I am still holding out hope for John Ross. Vegas projects them to win just shy of six games next year, which seems a little low. Cincy’s schedule is one of the easiest in the NFL as they play Washington, Miami, Jacksonville, the Chargers, and the Giants. Coming into the season, the Bengals are one of the most interesting teams in the NFL. They play in a really tough division, but I think the Bengals might surprise people in 2020. I think Joe Burrow and company will go over 5.5 wins this season.

My Prediction: 6-10
Over or Under 5.5 Wins: Slight Over

 

 

Cleveland Browns

2019 Record: 6-10
2020 Vegas Win Total: 8

Can you guess which team had the most money on them to win the Super Bowl in Vegas last year? Yup, the Brownies! The hype train was out of control for the Browns last year after they traded for Odell Beckham Jr. Unfortunately, the hype train went off the tracks, burst into a million pieces, and there were no survivors. The Browns going 6-10 with the talent on that roster was flat out embarrassing. Without question, the biggest problem for Cleveland last year was the offensive line. The Browns made a point this offseason to beef up Baker’s protection with the additions of Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills. Add in the play calling of new head coach Kevin Stefanski…I AM ALL IN ON THE BROWNS! With Austin Hooper, Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson, Oliver Vernon, Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, and Nick Chubb, this team is just too talented to finish below .500. With all this talent, the team hinges on the play of Baker Mayfield. No player in the NFL needs a bigger bounce back season this year than Baker, it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the pressure. With all that being said, I believe in Stefanski’s offense, I think Baker will return to form this year, and I am hammering the Browns over in 2020.

My Prediction: 10-6
Over or Under 8 Wins: Hard Over

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 Record: 8-8
2020 Vegas Win Total: 9.5

The Steelers going 8-8 last year was nothing short of a miracle. The Steelers had five games in 2019 where they scored 10 points or less…FIVE GAMES. The Ravens scored more points in 60 minutes against Miami in week 1 than the Steelers scored in weeks 1, 11, 12, 15, 16, and 17 combined! There are a million stats out there that show just how terrible this offense was, but credit to Mike Tomlin and his staff for getting this team to .500, and just missing the playoffs. The biggest question for Pittsburgh in 2020 is what are we going to see from a 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger this year? Big Ben has suffered a laundry list of injuries throughout his career, and he’s just shy of 40. Vegas doesn’t seem to care however, and checks them in at 9.5 wins for the 2020 season. When it comes to really old quarterbacks, especially ones who have a troubled injury history, you just have to go with the under. If Ben misses significant time again, Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges are not leading this team to double-digit wins, no matter how good their defense is. This team’s success all comes down to the play of Ben Roethlisberger and I’m betting against it. I like the under for Pittsburgh this year.

My Prediction: 8-8
Over or Under 9.5 Wins: Slight Under

 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens

2019 Record: 14-2
2020 Vegas Win Total: 11.5

I wonder where we’re gonna start when talking about the Ravens? Lamar Jackson had one of the most historic single seasons in NFL history last year. He broke Michael Vick’s record for rushing yards in a season by a QB, led the league in passing TDs, and won the MVP handily. Unfortunately, for the second straight season he led his team to a playoff loss, one in which Baltimore found themselves down 28-6 at one point. Coming into 2020, this is a BIG season for the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have the most valuable asset in the league right now: an MVP who made just $2 million against the cap last year. Lamar has one year left before the Ravens inevitably extend him, and it’s so incredibly important that they don’t waste it. If he stays healthy, he’s going to get a $250 million extension without question. With the additions of J.K. Dobbins, Calais Campbell, and Patrick Queen I have no reason to believe that any team in the AFC North will dethrone the Ravens this season. It’s almost impossible for this division to be any worse than it was last year, but the Ravens still have a dominant defense, a Super Bowl winning coach, and the reigning MVP. It’s no easy task to win 11+ games in the National Football League, but I’ll take a slight over on Baltimore this year.

My Prediction: 12-4
Over or Under 11.5 Wins: Slight Over

 

 

 

AFC West

 

Los Angeles Chargers

2019 Record: 5-11
2020 Vegas Win Total: 7.5

Outside of the Browns, the Chargers were probably the most disappointing team in the league in 2019. They made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 2018, then followed it up with a 5-11 season last year. The craziest stat about the 2019 Chargers is that they were 2-9 in one score games last season, they were a much better team than what their record showed. After 16 years of service, the Chargers finally decided to move on from the aging Philip Rivers and replaced him with Oregon product Justin Herbert. The one thing that stands out to me when talking about LAC is their defense. The amount of talent on this defense is incredible, featuring Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Chris Harris, Derwin James, Casey Heyward, Desmond King, Linval Joseph, and Kenneth Murray. This should be a top 10 defense this year, but they have the most confusing quarterback situation in the NFL coming into the 2020 season. Tyrod Taylor hasn’t started a game in two years and Justin Herbert has gotten mixed reviews as a prospect. I have NO idea what to expect when it comes to their quarterback play and I don’t have a clue about what to do with their O/U of 7.5 either. Out of every team in the NFL, the Chargers are probably the last team I would put money on in 2020. Hard stay away for me.

Record Prediction: *Shrugs*
Over or Under 7.5 Wins: Stay Away

 

 

 

Las Vegas Raiders

2019 Record: 7-9
2020 Vegas Win Total: 7.5

For the first time ever there is now a football team in Las Vegas…what could go wrong? Las Vegas improved by four games in Jon Gruden’s 2nd season, but the Raiders really struggled against teams with winning records in 2019. They lost to the Vikings 34-14, the Chiefs 40-9, the Packers 42-24, the Titans 42-21, hell even the Jets beat ’em 34-3! I think the Raiders problem is extremely obvious. Jon Gruden was out of football for more than a decade before coming back in 2018 and the game of football has just passed him by. The NFL has changed leaps and bounds since Gruden was a head coach and he just hasn’t adapted. The Raiders deployed the most simplistic offense in the league last year, while coaches like Shanahan, McVay, and Andy Reid ran circles around him. 2020 is basically the last shot for Derek Carr to prove he’s the guy in Vegas and I personally don’t think he’s up to the task. If you take out his 2016 season, his career record as a quarterback is a putrid 27-52. This offense has some solid talent around him with Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs III, and Tyrell Williams, but the Raiders start to their 2020 schedule is BRUTAL. Las Vegas has games vs. NO, @ NE, vs. BUF, @ KC, vs. TB, and @ CLE all in a row. They could easily wind up going 1-5 during that stretch and their season might be over by week 8. Honestly, I think the Raiders are the most boring/mediocre team in the AFC and I like the under for them this year.

Record Prediction: 7-9
Over or Under 7.5 Wins: Slight Under

 

 

 

Denver Broncos

2019 Record: 7-9
2020 Vegas Win Total: 8

The hype train is starting to gain steam in Denver coming into the 2020 season. Drew Lock came back from injury in week 13 and showed real promise as he lead the Broncos to a 4-1 record in his first five career starts. Word out of Broncos camp is that Lock is continuing to turn heads with his play and with the additions of Jerry Jeudy and Melvin Gordon the Broncos could have a really potent offense in 2020. The problem for me is that we just have too small of a sample size on Mr. Lock to know if he’s going to be a decent QB or not. He only has five games under his belt, hell Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Brock Osweiler have all had five game stretches where they looked like franchise QBs too. The Broncos had a top 10 defense in 2019 and their offense on paper is much improved as well. Unfortunately, Vegas didn’t give us any wiggle room on the O/U win total of 8. Before I looked at it, I was praying that it would be at 7 or 7.5, so I could take the over. I think this is at least an 8-8 team, but I don’t feel confident enough to put money on a 9-7 or 10-6 season because of Lock’s lack of experience.

My Prediction: 8-8
Over or Under 8 Wins: Stay Away

 

 

 

Kansas City Chiefs

2019 Record: 12-4
2020 Vegas Win Total: 11.5

For the first time in 50 years the Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl Champions. When I think about their Super Bowl run, I can’t help but remember the Divisional Round game against Houston. I check the box score at 12:45 and the Texans are up 24-0…the Chiefs then went on to outscore the Texans 51-7 over the next two and a half hours, that’s the kind of offense the rest of the league has to worry about. After only 31 career starts, the Chiefs made the decision to hand Patrick Mahomes the richest contract in sports history…and he’s still underpaid. The value of having a quarterback who can lead your team to a 20 point victory after being down 24-0 is immeasurable. The big question for Patrick Mahomes is how many rings will he boast on his hand when it’s all said and done. Mahomes is the greatest arm talent that I have ever seen and if I were an oddsmaker in Vegas I would set his career ring total at like 3.5…maybe even 4. Coming into 2020, KC’s Super Bowl winning team is still very much intact. They still have Kelce, Hill, Watkins, and they added Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back too. The Chiefs come in to 2020 with the highest O/U win total in the league at 11.5. When a win total is that high I tend to go under because so much can go wrong and only a little can go right. On the flip side, the other quarterbacks in the AFC West are nowhere close to Mahomes and the Chiefs. Lock, Carr, and Herbert/Taylor are not winning this division, they just aren’t. I do believe in the ‘Super Bowl Hangover’ a lot, but Kansas City went 6-0 in their division last year. The Chiefs will win the AFC West, but I think they’ll have a few tough losses throughout the campaign, give me 11-5.

Record Prediction: 11-5
Over or Under 11.5 Wins: Slight Under

 

 

 

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars 

2019 Record: 6-10
2020 Vegas Win Total: 4.5 

Over the last two decades, it’s hard to argue that there’s been a more dysfunctional franchise than the Jacksonville Jaguars…aside from Cleveland. After being a few minutes away from a Super Bowl appearance in 2018, it’s been more of the same in Jacksonville ever since. In my NFC O/U article I mentioned how Carolina needs to just throw the 2020 season away and ‘Tank for Trevor’…the Jaguars are in the exact same boat. Top to bottom, Jacksonville has the worst roster in the entire AFC and they play in a tough division on top of that. I know Minshew-mania was a lot of fun for about a month, but c’mon he’s not the future. They tried very hard to trade Fournette this offseason, Yannick Ngakoue got into a Twitter feud with the owner’s son, and they didn’t even bother to try and go after Brady, Newton, or Phillip Rivers. This team is going nowhere and Vegas thinks so too. Vegas clocks them in at 4.5 wins this year, the lowest of any team in the NFL. Much like the Panthers, I think Jaguar fans should be rooting against their team this season, so they can try and have a shot at Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields in April. I know it’s a low number, but I just can’t see the Jags going over 4.5 wins this year.

My Prediction: 4-10
Over or Under 4.5 Wins: Slight Under

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

2019 Record: 7-9
2020 Vegas Win Total: 9

I legitimately feel sorry for Colts fans for what they endured last August. Indy fans got the rug swept from under them when Andrew Luck announced his retirement weeks before the 2019 season kicked off. Luck was coming off a season in which he threw for 39 TD, was an MVP candidate, and led Indy to the playoffs. The Colts were Super Bowl contenders coming into 2019, then one tweet from Adam Shefter and *poof* it all went away. Now, the Colts are trying to rekindle their flame and make a Super Bowl run with a 38-year-old Philip Rivers…yikes. I recall watching the Chiefs vs. Chargers Monday night game last year where Rivers threw four INTs and thinking, “Wow, this guy is just DONE!” When looking at their Vegas win total of 9, it’s probably the most confusing number on the board. According to the bookmakers, Indianapolis is projected to win this division in 2020! The AFC South had two teams nearly make it to the Super Bowl last year and neither of them were the Indianapolis Colts. With a brand new quarterback, very young skill position players, and limited practice time due to COVID, I think the Colts being projected as division champions is ludicrous. I have no idea what this team is going to look like in 2020. Easy stay away for me.

My Prediction: ehhhhhh 8-8 I guess
Over or Under 9 Wins: Stay Away

 

 

Tennessee Titans

2019 Record: 9-7
2020 Vegas Win Total: 8.5

2019 was a very memorable season for the Titans and their fans, a franchise that has not had many great memories over the last 20 years. The Titans were the feel good story of the 2019 playoffs, as they went on to end Tom Brady’s tenure in New England and demolished the 14-2 Ravens as well. Unfortunately, the Chiefs offense was just too overpowering and they went on to lose in the AFC championship game, but overall an excellent season for Ryan Tannehill and company. Coming into 2020, this team still has most of the key pieces that led them to the AFC title game last year, but the offseason departures of Jack Conklin and Jurrell Casey were huge losses for Tennessee. The biggest question Titans fans are asking themselves this offseason is “was that the REAL Ryan Tannehill?” Throughout his career Tannehill has always been a .500 quarterback, hell his career record is exactly 49-49. Tannehill gave the Titans an instant spark after Mariota was benched, as he went on to lead the NFL in QBR and made his first Pro Bowl. They signed him to a big extension this offseason and honestly they didn’t have any other choice. Say what you will about Tannehill, but he took a team that started off 2-4 to a game away from playing in the Super Bowl. I think Mike Vrabel is an excellent coach, Arthur Smith is a really innovative play caller, and Derrick Henry is the most feared back in the league. The O/U of 8.5 is right where I thought it would be and although I think this team will regress some, the AFC South is really weak this year. I’ll take a slight over on Tennessee.

My Prediction: 9-7
Over or Under 8.5 Wins: Slight Over

 

 

Houston Texans

2019 Record: 10-6
2020 Vegas Win Total: 7.5 

I don’t think anybody got more shit on Twitter during quarantine than Bill O’Brien. Texans fans absolutely lost their fucking minds when they caught wind that O’Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins AND a 4th round pick for a 2nd rounder and David Johnson’s atrocious contract. Houston fans have reason to be up in arms, as the inferiorly talented Stefon Diggs went for a 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th. The trade was 100% indefensible. Even if Hopkins breaks his leg Week 1 and Johnson rushes for 1,200 yards the trade is still a loss for Houston because of how terrible DJ’s contract is. This offense on paper is built like a fantasy team. Kenny Stills, Randall Cobb, Brandin Cooks, David Johnson, I can’t for the life of me figure out how all these pieces fit together. The saving grace for Texans fans is that they still have Deshaun Watson. Watson is simply incredible and one of the six or seven best quarterbacks in football. For all the hate that Bill O’Brien gets, the Texans have won the AFC South four out of the last five seasons. O’Brien has led teams with Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer to the playoffs, you can’t argue that he’s not a good coach. GM? That’s another story. Houston comes in with a surprising win total of only 7.5…which seems suspicious. Although the number is pretty fishy, Watson just wills his team to victory week in and week out. I don’t see the logic in Vegas’ thinking here, I’m kind of scared off by the low number, but I really like the over for Houston in 2020.

My Prediction: 9-7
Over or Under 7.5 Wins: Hard Over

 

 

 

AFC East

 

Miami Dolphins

2019 Record: 5-11
2020 Vegas Win Total: 6

Tank for Tuaaaaaaaaaaa!!! The Dolphins looked to be on pace for an 0-16 season last year after they were outscored 58-10 by the Ravens and then 43-0 by the Pats in weeks 1 & 2. Head coach Brian Flores somehow turned this team around and they ended the season going 5-4 down the stretch. It’s pretty amazing that this team won five games in 2019 considering that management made it clear that they were trying to tank, Josh Rosen started three games, and their defense gave up an average of 31 PPG. Miami had the busiest offseason of any team in the league this spring as they added Tua, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Kyle Van Noy, Byron Jones, Ereck Flowers, Matt Breida, and Jordan Howard. The one thing I worry about with the Dolphins is Tua’s health. He has a troubled injury history and I can just picture Jadeveon Clowney, Chandler Jones, and Aaron Donald clobbering him and his 6’0″ frame. Hopefully he can stay healthy because I can’t wait to see what he can do at the next level. Vegas nailed Miami’s O/U as they see a 6-10 season for the Dolphins in 2020. With all the roster changes and no time to really connect due to COVID, I am staying away from the Dolphins O/U in 2020. I think they’ll wind up somewhere between five and seven wins, but I wouldn’t bet it.

My Prediction: 6-10
Over or Under 6 Wins: Stay Away

 

 

 

New York Jets

2019 Record: 7-9
2020 Vegas Win Total: 7

The Jets had high hopes coming into the 2019 season and as per usual they let their fans down and finished 3rd in the AFC East. Coming into last year, I honestly thought New York could be a sneaky Wild Card playoff team. Unfortunately, Sam Darnold got mono, the offensive line was horrible, and the Le’Veon Bell contract was doomed from the start. The roster somehow got worse this offseason as they lost Robby Anderson, C.J. Mosley opted out, and they traded their best player to Seattle. The Jets have completely wasted Sam Darnold’s rookie contract and on paper their offense might be the worst in the entire AFC. Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Chris Herndon, and Denzil Mims are nothing to get excited about and even with the addition of Mekhi Becton, their O-line should be around the bottom of the league again. Vegas sees another 7-9 season for New York this year and I think with the losses of Jamal Adams and C.J. Mosley, this season could go downhill quickly for Jets. The Jets have a really tough schedule that starts with games @ BUF, vs. SF, @ KC, vs. NE, @ SEA, vs. CLE, and @NE. I just can’t envision a scenario in which this team goes 9-7 or 10-6, their offense is subpar and they just lost their two best defensive players. Give me the under, all day.

My Prediction: 5-11
Over or Under 7 Wins: Hard Under

 

 

 

Buffalo Bills

2019 Record: 10-6
2020 Vegas Win Total: 9

The Bills made a giant leap in 2019 and almost dethroned the Patriots as AFC East champs. The Bills defense was overshadowed all year by the 49ers and Patriots, but Buffalo had one of the best defenses of the decade statistically speaking. Last year, the Bills defense ranked 2nd in PPG, 3rd in Yds/G, 4th in PYds/G, and 10th in RYds/G. As good as their defense was, their offense needs some serious improvement in 2020. The Bills offense ranked 23rd in the league in points, behind teams like Detroit, Carolina, and the Giants. Hopefully the addition of Stefon Diggs will boost their passing game, but last year Josh Allen had the worst deep ball completion percentage in the entire league. The blueprint for this team is to give the ball to Devin Singletary and Zack Moss 40 times a game and slow the game down because nobody is scoring on this defense. I think Sean McDermott is an excellent coach and has built a great culture up there in Buffalo. Vegas thinks Buffalo will be a fringe playoff team in 2020 and that’s where I see them as well. Their defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last year, if this team can just average 21-22 points/game on offense they should easily win double-digit games. I don’t feel great about betting on a team led by Josh Allen, but I think Buffalo sneaks into the playoffs again this season.

My Prediction: 10-6
Over or Under 9 Wins: Slight Over

 

 

New England Patriots

2019 Record: 12-4
2020 Vegas Win Total: 9.5

He’s gone…he’s actually gone. After 17 division titles, 14 Pro Bowls, four MVPs, and six Super Bowls Tom Brady will no longer call Foxborough home. Everybody and their mother called New England’s bluff this offseason, as the entire league looked around and said, “C’mon guys, Jarret Stidham…Really??” Yet nobody did a damn thing about it and the Patriots stole Cam Newton right out from under all 31 other teams’ noses. Coming into the 2020 season this team looks almost unrecognizable as they lost Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, and Duron Harmon. However, it’s just not going to matter, Belichick led the Pats to an 11-5 record with Matt Cassel at QB. Cam Newton just has to be average and this team will win 10+ games because of how dominant their defense is. Incredible Stat: After their week 8 win against Cleveland, the Patriots defense had scored four touchdowns themselves and only let up three…INSANE. The one thing I’m looking forward to with this New England team is how Belichick utilizes Cam’s mobility. When you look at the best quarterbacks in the league like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson all of them can run. Over the last seven seasons Tom Brady has a total of 289 rushing yards combined! In 2020, you have to have a quarterback that can keep the defense honest with his legs and Belichick finally has that. Vegas thinks the Patriots will win this division and until Belichick is no longer the coach I tend to agree. This team is going to have some growing pains, but I think this team can still get to 10+ wins. Gimme the over.

My Prediction: 10-6
Over or Under 9.5 Wins: Slight Over

 

 

 

Playoff Predictions

AFC North: Ravens
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC South: Texans
AFC East: Patriots
Wild Card: Bills
Wild Card: Browns
Wild Card: Titans

 

 

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