Groupthink Alert: Trevor Lawrence is too Great to Fail

Groupthink may be influencing the fantasy football community on Trevor Lawrence. Groupthink is defined as a mode of thinking in which a group of individuals accepts a viewpoint or conclusion without consideration for alternatives or consequences. A common metaphor is that we are all drinking the Kool-aid. The flavor most certainly would be called: “Trevor Lawerence is a can’t-miss prospect.”

What we know about Trevor Lawrence

Everything we have seen from Lawrence on film tells us he will undoubtedly make a successful transition to the NFL and is the surest thing since Andrew Luck. So by playing devil’s advocate, I want to make sure we don’t fall into this trap.

As highlighted by one of our writers, Dan Turner, Lawrence checks the box for so many teams but also brings in some areas for improvement. I combined my opinions with my colleague’s list.

The Postives

• Arm Strength.
• Accuracy and Touch.
• Mobility.
• Leadership in a winning atmosphere.

The Negatives

• Overthrows open receivers at times.
• Stares down 1st read and will force the ball in tight windows.
• Clemson’s team was full of NFL prospects.

Over the years…

Next, let’s take the QB’s from the last 20 years selected number one overall.

Year	#1 Overall Selection	Career FPTS/GM	Mel Kiper’s Jr.’sDraft Analysis	Other Notable QB’s (FPTS/GM)
2001	Michael Vick	13.2	“With an awesome talent like Vick, the only concern will be how long it takes him to develop into a top-of-the-line, pure passer who is capable of beating the opposition with his arm as well as his incredible running skills.”	Drew Brees (17.4) Quincy Carter (9.0)
2002	David Carr	6.6	“He is a franchise-caliber quarterback with accuracy and velocity reminiscent of another No. 1 overall pick, Troy Aikman.”	Joey Harrington (9.4), Josh McCown (7.6)
2003	Carson Palmer	14.6	“With Troy Aikman/Drew Bledsoe-like potential, Palmer has continued to solidify the top spot.”	Byron Leftwich (8.9), Rex Grossman (7.9)
2004	Eli Manning	13.5	“…widely considered the safest of the three elite quarterback prospects in this year’s class.”	Philip Rivers (14.2), Ben Roethlisberger(15.8)
2005	Alex Smith	12.1	“While Smith is not the next John Elway or Troy Aikman, lacking that type of arm strength, the overall package of skills he brings to the table definitely makes him deserving of a lofty NFL grade.”	Aaron Rodgers (17.4), Ryan Fitzpatrick (12.3)
2007	JaMarcus Russell	5.1	“Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that’s certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league… the skillset he has is certainly John Elway-like.”	Brady Quinn (5.9), Kevin Kolb (6.7),
2009	Matthew Stafford	17.0	“Matthew Stafford eventually will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Write that down.”	Mark Sanchez (8.5), Josh Freeman (12.1)
2010	Sam Bradford	12.3	“This past year, you wanted to see him under duress, and he got hurt.”	Tim Tebow (8.8), Jimmy Clausen (5.6), Colt McCoy (6.1)
2011	Cam Newton	18.6	“He’s the one player in this draft that presents the biggest upside and he’s the one player in this draft that presents the biggest risk, and that’s Cam Newton.’’	Blaine Gabbert (8.4), Andy Dalton (15.3), Tyrod Taylor (7.2)
2012	Andrew Luck	19.5	“A confirmed lock to go No. 1, Luck has worked hard during the draft process, backing up a lot of what evaluators felt about his mentality. No change in profile. Arm strength, size, smarts, demeanor all there. Ready to play.”	Ryan Tannehill (15.9), Russell Wilson (19.5), Kirk Cousins (15.5)
2015	Jameis Winston	14.4	“There is really no franchise quarterback in this draft.”	Marucs Mariota (16.5), Trevor Siemian (6.3)
2016	Jared Goff	15.1	“I’m not that concerned about Goff. If all you’re worrying about is weight and strength on a quarterback coming out of college, there isn’t much to critique. … If that’s the only criticism you have, you’ve got yourself a heck of a prospect.”	Carson Wentz (17.2), Jacoby Brissett (7.7), Dak Prescott (20.0)
2018	Baker Mayfield	15.7	“The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner put up huge numbers at Oklahoma, and he has moxie that NFL teams love.”	Sam Darnold (12.9), Josh Allen (20.0), Lamar Jackson (19.9)
2019	Kyler Murray	20.8	“Murray is one of the best dual-threat college quarterbacks I’ve ever seen. He just has rare athleticism, and there’s a reason he was once one of the most sought-after recruits in the country.”	Daniel Jones (14.7), Drew Lock (13.8), Gardner Minshew (17.0)
2020	Joe Burrow	17.4	“Joe Burrow, his poise, his confidence, the way he manipulates the pocket, he just has that ‘It’ factor. He has tremendous awareness. He slips, he dips, stays away from trouble then makes those accurate strikes down the field.	Tua Tagovailoa (13.5), Justin Herbert(22.2), Jalen Hurts (7.2)
2021	TBD: Trevor Lawrence	n/a	“Lawrence has everything NFL teams want in a starting quarterback, from size to arm talent to the ability to process reads and make the right throw.”	Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones

Takeaways

• As you can see from the 15 quarterbacks, only Palmer, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, and Murray are the only ones to outperform the rest of the quarterbacks in their perspective draft class. Also, six of the draft classes had multiple QB’s outscore the #1 overall pick.

• Luck, who Lawrence is often compared to as a prospect entering the draft, is tied with Wilson in fantasy points per game, but out of the four highlighted from 2012, Luck is the only one not playing anymore. 

Trevor Lawrence Analysis:

He has the arm talent to make the jump to the next level, like so many of the previous number one overall picks. My concern is that is so much of his deficiencies were able to be negated due to play calling and the number of playmakers at Clemson, as well as what most would consider an average to below-average schedule.

I like Lawrence as a prospect in the NFL, but I believe it is important to temper expectations for the young quarterback. He is going to a team that secured the number one overall pick by being the worst TEAM last year. Moving forward, we should be giving him a few seasons before attaching any labels whether good or bad.

Finally, in dynasty rookie drafts, I agree with the first overall projections. In redraft formats, I won’t be drafting him higher than QB14.

Remember, just because everyone says it’s so, doesn’t make it true.  

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