Hendon Hooker: Old and Infirm or Third Round Value Pick?

Pros

Four-star redshirt senior quarterback Hendon Hooker spent three unimpressive years at Virginia Tech before breaking out in earnest at Tennessee in 2021. He followed that up with an impressive 2022 season that was cut short by a torn ACL.

Hooker is a smart, well-rounded quarterback prospect who will not necessarily wow you with an elite trait but is confident, poised, athletic, and prudent. He has good mechanics, is accurate at all three levels of the field, and anticipates receivers well. Hooker’s career completion percentage of 66.6 and adjusted completion percentage of 75.8 (PFF) speak to the accuracy, and good decision-making scouts note, as does his 85:12 career TD:INT ratio.

While he is not the dynamic, elite ceiling rusher Anthony Richardson is, Hooker has very good mobility and does well both on designed run plays and when scrambling.

From an analytics perspective, there are some positive signs for Hooker. His career 77.53 QBR crosses the 75+ threshold, his career adjusted yards per attempt mark of 10.45 crosses the 8+ threshold, and his career rush yards market share of 19% easily crosses the 10+ threshold. (numbers per Campus2Canton). At almost 6’3″, he also checks the height box in the size part of his profile.

Furthermore, according to PFF, among 2023-eligible quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks in 2022 (total 37), Hooker’s pass grade of 85.4 was 8th, his run grade of 84.4 was 2nd, his 1.1% turnover-worthy plays rate was 1st, his 11.5 adot was tied for 4th, his 75.9 adjusted completion percentage was tied for 10th, and his NFL passer rating equivalent of 123.9 was 2nd.

Cons

Hooker’s clearest negatives are his age (he’s already 25 and would be 29 at the end of his rookie contract) and his ACL injury late in 2022 — and the combination thereof because when he is entirely himself again (in the spirit of “second year after ACL is better”), he will already be around 27.

While age doesn’t matter as much for quarterbacks, he is probably at the point where it starts to matter as a prospect. Also, many argue that older prospects took longer to develop and needed to be two years (or more) older than their competition to shine.

As for more specifically on-field concerns, Hooker does not have a powerful arm, and Josh Heupel’s offense set him up to succeed without having to do much beyond his first read. Hooker struggled a bit when forced to go further into his progressions.

From an analytics perspective, Hooker’s profile has some flaws. As noted, he would not check any age boxes, including the early declare box and the early breakout box. Additionally, Hooker’s weight and expected draft capital (2nd or 3rd round) don’t meet the usual thresholds. Hooker’s EPA/play marks were always under the threshold for quarterbacks who have had a top 12 season, even if mostly barely under (Campus2Canton).

Summary

Hendon Hooker is an interesting quarterback prospect often discussed in ways that begin with “If it weren’t for his age and the ACL”. Personally, I would have him above Will Levis as at least QB4 if things were different in those regards.

Hooker will hopefully be drafted by a team that can of course have him sit for most, if not all, of 2023 but also has a plausible pathway for him to start soon after. He has recently dipped in his NFL Mock Draft Database projection to the 3rd round. Given the context of that expected draft capital (the age and injury), dynasty managers are still taking Hooker as early as the late 2nd round in rookie drafts and rookie mock drafts.

Given team and player needs and expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense are: the Rams (36th and 77th overall) if they aren’t just blowing things up and going for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in 2024 and the Seahawks (37th, 52nd, and 83rd) and Raiders (38th and 70th) if those two teams don’t take a quarterback in the 1st round. The Titans (41st and 72nd) could be a very good destination, and the Falcons (44th and 75th), Lions (48th, 55th, and 81st), and Buccaneers (50th and 82nd) are all possibilities as well.

Ideal Role: potential starting QB with a floor as an excellent backup

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 3rd round

Player Comp: Geno Smith, Sam Bradford, Desmond Ridder