As we gear up for fantasy draft season, let’s explore 3 players I am higher on and lower on than most. I gathered the average draft position (ADP) from a variety of sources I respect, didn’t want to just pick on one person. I am valuing these through the lens of a 12 team re-draft league, standard rosters and format. Assume PPR but my opinions don’t change regardless of scoring to be honest. As always, feel free to provide any feedback on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).
Tight End
Higher than Most:
Tyler Higbee (ADP: TE8)
It is trendy around the industry to poo on Higbee’s late season performance. You will hear arguments about Everett being out, career stats, etc. What I care about is the Rams showed they value him as they gave him a contract extension last year. The have shipped Cooks to Houston and Gurley is in Atlanta so this offense is going to have more opportunity than the one he thrived under last year. I have Higbee as the TE5 and will be happy to take him if people are jumping over Waller/Engram before him.
Austin Hooper (ADP: TE11)
The offensive scheme in Cleveland doesn’t excite me, however, they just paid him 10+ million per season, so they obviously view him as a game changer at the position. The pendulum has swung too far and he can currently be drafted at one of the last starting TE’s in a 12 team league. A great value if I miss out on Higbee. The news out of camp is he has spent several weeks in Austin with Baker Mayfield so that chemistry should be ready to go come regular season. I have him as a top 8 TE with potential for top 5.
Jonnu Smith (ADP: TE17)
The Tennessee offense isn’t sexy but we have seen Delanie Walker provide value at tight end for this team for 5 seasons before age/injuries caught up to him. Jonnu is probably my favorite late round TE target this year. He operates as the #2 target in that offense which we can’t say for the Hockensens/Gesickis/Fants that occupy similar ADP. I will take Jonnu over them and hope he blossoms into a top 12 play.
Lower than Most:
Darren Waller (ADP: TE5)
Waller saw his production get pretty inconsistent the 2nd half of last year. I like his talent but I think more is in store for him in 2020. The Raiders added playmakers all over which will certainly soak up some targets plus they claim they want to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game. Derek Carr is not an engine that can churn out multiple fantasy football beasts so I will be taking a hard pass at Waller as the 5th best TE. I have him behind Higbee and Hooper.
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Rob Gronkowski (ADP: TE9)
I am not even sure Gronk will last till TE9. Someone in your league will undoubtedly get hyped and snag him early on. While we know his ceiling is a TE1, he is injury plagued and will be needed for a playoff run if things go the Buc’s way. I see him being rotational early in the year in the hopes of preserving him for a playoff run. If the Bucs experiment fails, then he is likely to remain a role player on this team as he can’t sacrifice his body for nothing. He will need plenty of TD’s to return value and those are difficult to predict, so I will be hands off if he goes this early.
Jared Cook (ADP: TE12)
Does anyone like Cook? He seems to be the textbook definition of average production from a fantasy standpoint. He is currently being drafted as the last startable TE in a 12 team league, all because he is tied to this prolific offense. With the addition of Sanders, he is #4 on the pecking order in New Orleans (#5 if you count Taysom). This is going to lead to some major duds in week to week performance which is something you expect from a middling TE but I would rather have him as my backup TE then starting TE. I would go for the upside of the younger TE’s before grabbing the vet.
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