Hindsight is 2020: Valuable Takeaways in a Ravaged Year

Redraft season is officially over and we are in the thick of the NFL playoffs. It’s time to kick back, crack open a beverage and reminisce about all those championships your fantasy teams won this season.

WRONG!

Champions and soon to be champions don’t rest on their laurels. Continuous improvement is the game plan for this offseason.

No one is going to soon forget the year that was 2020. Facemasks, quarantine, the Presidential election, and that COVID-15 lbs were all sewn into the tapestry of our memories. Fantasy football was the perfect distraction for a few months.

Hopefully, the distractions during the fantasy season didn’t distract you from lessons learned. As said above, the offseason has officially begun for redraft, so what better time than now when the knowledge (or hurt) is still fresh.

Recency bias, forgetfulness, and/or ignorance are landmines in the path to success for managers. Even the most casual fan gets swept up in the championship fever everyone experienced in Week 16. Either you were in the ‘ship or wishing you were.

Recency bias can be mitigated by evaluating players’ performance game-to-game. Season-long statistics can be deceiving… I’m looking at you, Tyler Lockett.

Forgetfulness is remedied by writing things down as they occur. Want to remember to draft RB heavy in 2021? Write it down as soon as you think of it.

Ignorance is not bliss when it comes to fantasy football. Lucky for you that GoingFor2 has got you covered this offseason with player profiles, breakouts, busts, etc.

These are a few lessons I learned from this wild and wacky fantasy football season.

Depth

Building depth at the RB and WR positions is crucial for any season, but especially for 2020. The consensus 1.01 and 1.02 picks (Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley) essentially missed the entire season. Joe Mixon, Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, Austin Ekeler, Odell Beckham Jr., and more top picks went down for extended periods this season.

How about the random Week 4 bye for the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers due to a COVID-19 outbreak?

The damage was somewhat mitigated by managers who drafted RB and WR heavy in the first few rounds. QB and TE (typically) are one-deep positions and can be streamed in a normal size league. Load up on RB and WR in next year’s draft and give yourself some FLEXibility. Pun most definitely intended.

Mock Draft

Practice how you play! It’s a simple concept, but quintessential in being a successful fantasy manager. Want to draft better? You have to do mock drafts earlier than the week before your league’s draft. Mocking will give you a better idea of where players are going and allow you to obtain maximum value.

Justin Jefferson won a lot of people matchups this season. He was a mid-to-late tenth round pick in drafts.

Situations Matter

Jefferson won people titles because 1) he was an enormous value at his draft price and 2) he was in a great position to produce. Stefon Diggs moved to Buffalo and slew which left a void in target share.

The writing was on the wall for Jefferson to get plenty of opportunities. His talent shined through like Gondor’s beacons to provide aid for those bold enough to take a chance on the rookie WR.

Diggs was finally the number one WR for a team, Antonio Gibson had the backfield to himself after the release of Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice, Davante Adams was in-line to see approximately 437248731 targets, and so on. These were all common knowledge to the fantasy manager who paid a modicum of attention during the offseason.

That knowledge, if acted upon, yielded a bounty of fantasy points for fantasy teams. In redraft; situation matters more than talent with few exceptions.

Keep It Simple, Stupid

“Great advice, hurts my feelings every time.” – Dwight Schrute, The Office

Fantasy football at its core is about value. Identifying players whose value is rising and falling is paramount in drafting, waiver wire decisions, and start/sit decisions. I’m not about to tell you value isn’t important; however, there was a situation during my home league draft this year that made me realize that drafting value to the detriment of my team is a mistake.

I’ll make a long story, short. I drafted Cooper Kupp after selecting Robert Woods two rounds earlier. Kupp was an incredible value at that point, but it made my start/sit life a living Hell. I wanted to “win the draft” instead of fielding a balanced team week-to-week.

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Patience is a Virtue

I don’t care what the Chinese restaurant menu said the year is… 2020 was the year of patience.

This fantasy football season felt punctuated by short bursts of frantic energy. There was an overhanging sense of dread the season could be imminently canceled. Managers weren’t as patient as in previous seasons, because every week felt so important.

Patience in fantasy football is allowing a player to struggle through a rough patch whether due to injury, tough schedule, etc.

I recommend the “three-week rule”. If a player underperforms for three weeks in a row then bench or cut him if it makes your team better. An honest, unbiased evaluation that weighs the factors above must be conducted first. You drafted the player for a reason. Don’t give up on him too early.

Youth Movement

33-percent of the top 24 RBs and 25-percent of the top 24 WRs on a fantasy points per game basis are from the 2019 and 2020 draft classes.

The top 24 RBs average 3.4 years in the league with the top 36 WRs averaging 5.1 years in the league.

Throw “household name value” out of the window in 2021. Young players are having an easier transition from college to the NFL because more college concepts are being used on offense. Defenders are getting lighter and faster thus mitigating the traditional young WR struggles with press and man coverages.

Young players in good situations are more important than ever moving forward.

Have Fun

The penultimate lesson I learned this season was to have fun. No one wants to be in a league where no one talks and no one trades. We can’t, as other managers, force teams to trade or be active, but we can provide content that perhaps acts as a catalyst in driving discussion and activity.

I do power rankings videos for my home redraft league. My main dynasty league has a weekly “news report” video that has ignited discussion, activity, and excitement.

Not everyone has time or energy to go all out but think of something unique and fun to bring to your league in 2021. I guarantee you it will be a success and invigorate your league.

That’s all folks! The 2020 fantasy football season is a wrap. Remember the triumphs, the failures, and the lessons. All three are integral to introducing your league to a far better manager in 2021.

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