Hot or Not: Fantasy Dating for Week 4 in the NFL
HELLO EVERYBODY! I hope you came back after a so-so first edition of Hot or Not last week. I feel like I tried to force some opinions and then some others I had a good process on, even if I got it wrong. I’ve done the film work, made the corrections, and got back on the horse to play matchmaker once again this week.
This column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish. Other than that, let’s get right into it!
HOT & STEAMY QUARTERBACKS:
Embed from Getty ImagesRussell Wilson, SEA @ SF (Consensus Rank: QB7, My Rank: QB5)
I don’t think I’m necessarily making a grand statement by saying Russ is going to be a top 5 QB this week. However, I think this is a great matchup for him instead of a bad one. 26, 37, 21, 27, 23, 43. Those numbers are the points scored by Seattle in the last 6 seasons against San Francisco. That is a guaranteed 3 scoring drives minimum and Russ is scoring 70% of their TDs so far this year.
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I’m just saying… I’m hitting the over on this prop bet. The concerning thing with Russ so far this season is he isn’t adding a lot of yards with his legs. 11 total carries through 3 weeks is less than Lamar Jackson will have in a single game. However, in his 2 losses/close games, he threw the ball over 30 times in both contests. I don’t know if Seattle wins at San Fran, but I do think it will be a close game. Russ will have the volume necessary to give you top 5 QB production.
Derek Carr, LV @ LAC (Consensus Rank: QB16, My Rank: QB12)
Derek Carr has shown me enough that he should be in lineups weekly. At least 25 points in 3 games against Miami, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. Say what you want about those teams, but they have good defenses and Carr has attacked them with fervor. The Chargers’ defense is better than it was last year but isn’t better than what Miami or Pittsburgh has.
There are some QBs this week that scares me a little more than they normally do. If Derek Carr is your backup, I’d trust him as your starter with this thinking. Carr has a solid floor. In every game so far, Carr has 380 yards, 37 passing attempts, and 2 TDs. In every game. You are looking at 23 points at a minimum. Would you take 23 points from your QB this week?
NOT SO HOT & PROBABLY SWEATY QUARTERBACKS:
Embed from Getty ImagesLamar Jackson, BAL @ DEN (Consensus Rank: QB6, My Rank: QB10)
You probably can’t bench him. But Lamar isn’t in Detroit anymore. Denver is 3-0 and has been stingy on defense. Albeit against teams that don’t necessarily give you the heebie-jeebies in the Jets, Jaguars, and Giants. That being said, they have an upper echelon secondary and Von Miller can still get it done along the defensive line. Lamar has always had trouble going through his progressions, and if he can’t get rid of the ball in 3 seconds he will bring his eyes down to the pocket and try to scramble.
Ok but Lamar is such a great runner. Why is he on the Sweaty list? Well, in 2020 when Lamar ran the ball more than 10 times in a game, he had over 200 passing yards only 4 times (out of 9). In those games with 10 or more carries, he averaged 23 points per game, BUT had a much larger variance in scoring with 3 games scoring under 20 points and only 1 game scoring above 27. I have him in a league and am starting him, but I am not without fear with this matchup.
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Ryan Tannehill, TEN @ NYJ (Consensus Rank: QB14, My Rank: QB16)
I don’t have a big difference of opinion from our rankers, but I did want to highlight a few things here. Tennessee is playing the Jets and normally you start your players against the Jets. However, AJ Brown and Julio Jones are hurt and haven’t practiced as of this writing on Thursday. If they can’t go, you are looking at Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as your top pass catchers. This is my face if that happens.
On top of that, Derrick Henry is likely looking at 20+ touches in this game and the Jets have no chance of winning. Why would Tannehill be throwing a ton with those conditions? You basically are hoping to get a couple of early TDs for him to pay off. If you drafted him as a starter in a deeper league, I would find another option this week.
HOT & THICK RUNNING BACKS:
Embed from Getty ImagesAntonio Gibson, WFT @ ATL (Consensus Rank: RB12, My Rank: RB8)
There are a few teams that you just start your players against and don’t think twice about. Atlanta is one of those teams. They are giving up an average of 31 points a game, and that includes a game against the Giants that pulled the average down quite a bit. The more perplexing issue with the team is their inability to score which means that the opposing offense is on the field longer. This plays right into the Washington Football Teams goal to establish the running game. Heinecke has made some decent plays, and also some boneheaded ones. If they play mistake-free football, Washington will win this game handily.
*I will add that I reserve the right for my opinion to change. Gibson did not practice on Thursday after he was limited on Wednesday. As long as he is limited on Friday, he should be a go but this is something owners of Gibson should be monitoring.*
Gibson owners also know if they watched last week’s game against Buffalo that he was absolutely bailed out on a long screen pass touchdown for his fantasy day. He had 82% of his fantasy point total come from that play and was useless with his 12 carries. However, JD McKissic has a total of 8 carries to Gibsons 45. When the game script is in their favor and they are running the ball, it will be Gibson getting the rock. Start him with confidence.
Zack Moss, BUF vs HOU (Consensus Rank: RB35, My Rank: RB20)
I have no idea why our rankers are so low on Zack Moss. I get that he isn’t an electric player and he doesn’t catch the ball much. But he is the best goal-line running back (Josh Allen is not an RB and is the better goal-line runner) on a team that is going to pile on points against the Texans. Houston is giving up 5 yards per carry against the run and 9.5 yards per catch to RBs.
Yes, Moss was inactive in Week 1. I didn’t like that at all and it is still a bit concerning. However, he has gone from inactive to 28% to 56% of the snaps in 3 weeks, passing Singletary. Moss is the better pass protector and while that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, it does mean he is trusted to be on the field more on passing downs. Take a wild guess who got more targets between the RBs in week 3. Go ahead I’ll give you a second. ZACK MOSS! THE GUY WHO “DOESN’T CATCH PASSES”. I was in on Moss in the preseason and am happy to be able to start him as an RB2 this week.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR @ DAL (Consensus Rank: RB25, My Rank: RB16)
Mike Davis 2.0? A man can dream, right? Here is what we know about the rookie out of Oklahoma St. In 2019, he rushed for 2,094 yards on 328 carries and scored 21 touchdowns. So we know he can carry the ball effectively (even if his 2020 season was not nearly as productive). But the Mike Davis/CMC role is heavily involved in the passing game. How was he catching the ball? Frankly, he wasn’t asked to do it a lot in college. Getting only 53 catches over 3 seasons. However, in only 1 half of football last week against Houston, he did get 3 catches on 5 targets for 27 yards. 5 targets in 1 half. Yes. Please.
Maybe our rankers are skeptical because of the Royce Freeman addition a few weeks ago. I will admit, I am a little bit worried. The Panthers claimed him on waivers vs letting him go into free agency and then having him in for a visit before signing him. They prioritized him. However, the snaps and touches leaned heavily towards Chuba after CMC went down last week. 14:6 touches in favor of Chuba. 36:10 snaps in favor of Chuba. I am very hopeful for a Mike Davis 2020 type day against Dallas and would also be looking to sell high if anyone is interested in him.
Cute & Curvy Running Backs (Others receiving votes):
No one has any earthly idea what the 49ers will do at RB. This past week, they featured Trey Sermon… and Kyle Juszczyk. I don’t know if he plays because he was only limited on Wednesday and Thursday BUT… if Elijah Mitchell is healthy, I’d be looking at him for my flex spot. Seattle has been very bad against the run and the 49ers will want to keep Russ off the field by maintaining possession of the ball.
Sony Michel did not have a very efficient game against the Bucs as the leading rusher for the Rams. However, the Bucs have a stout DL and LB group. The Cardinals group isn’t too bad, but it isn’t all-world either. If Henderson is out again this week (Henderson was limited on Wednesday, so its a big IF), then Michel has a good chance to get around 20 carries again.
NOT SO HOT & TOO BROAD RUNNING BACKS:
Embed from Getty ImagesClyde Edwards-Helaire, KC @ PHI (Consensus Rank: RB16, My Rank: RB22)
He finally paid off for you, but you had him on your bench last week. Now you trust him enough to start him again.
I know my Zeke call last week didn’t work out against the Eagles’ defense. However, I believe the process was right. The Eagles are being run on 26 times per game on average. That is enough to wear a defense down over a full game. The Chiefs are not going to be giving CEH that many carries. Not even close. He has seen 13, 14, and 17 carries in each game this year. Not to mention that he got a receiving TD and still can’t get into the end zone as a goal-line back. I am fading CEH this week.
Damien Harris, NE vs TB (Consensus Rank: RB21, My Rank: RB28)
I’ve got two pieces of bad news for people with Damien Harris this week. First, they are facing the Bucs defense which has limited RBs to 3.2 yards per carry this season. That includes Ezekiel Elliot, Tony Pollard, Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Sony Michel. Second, Damien Harris has almost no value as a pass-catcher in this offense and will be taken off the field for passing plays, even without James White playing. Third, you are checking if I said two or three pieces of bad news at the beginning of this paragraph. Fourth, the Bucs are going to be winning this game and thus the Patriots will be needing to pass. Fifth, Brandon Bolden got 46% of the snaps last week against the Saints. Sixth, now you are fully triggered because you know I said two at the beginning and I added two useless “pieces of bad news”.
HOT & TENDER PASS CATCHERS:
Adam Thielen, MIN vs CLE (Consensus Rank: WR18, My Rank: WR12)
Thielen is good for at least 1 TD a game. That is basically his floor. He has 4 TDs through 3 games and 4 red zone targets in that time too. He trails Justin Jefferson (ranked 8 spots above Thielen) by 2 targets this season, but has 1 more catch than Justin. I am not saying Justin isn’t great or that Thielen is better than him. But I am pointing out that Adam is more consistently getting into the end zone (4:1 Thielen has the edge) and has more catches through 3 games. Why is Adam not in the WR1 territory?
This matchup is tough on paper but I look at two things that don’t make me as worried. First is that Greg Newsome (CB2 for CLE) is out this week. I don’t know if Greg Ward shadows Thielen or Jefferson or just stays on one side. Additionally, the Browns are better against the run than they are against the pass. On top of Dalvin being hobbled coming into this game, I don’t know if you want to force it to him 20 times against a team that is stopping the run. Throw the ball to your playmakers, Kirk.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs SEA (Consensus Rank: WR42, My Rank: WR25)
Why aren’t we back in on Aiyuk yet? We were valuing him as a top 25 WR going into the year and now we are flipped on him and Deebo? Why can’t we like both? To be fair, I valued Deebo over Aiyuk going into the season, but never expected Aiyuk to be “injured” or whatever Coach Shanahan wants to call it. All I know is Aiyuk is back to playing a full complement of snaps at the perfect time.
I mentioned this earlier in my Russ comments that Seattle has put up at least 21 points in their last 6 games against SF. 27, 23, 26, 24, 26, 16. Those are the 49ers points in those 6 contests. This game will definitely feature some scoring and while I think SF may try to grind it out on the ground, the pass-catchers will be involved and I like Aiyuk in this game to make a big play or two. He had 1 TD last week and dropped another on only 6 targets. If he gets even more targets, watch out.
Corey Davis, NYJ vs TEN (Consensus Rank: WR36, My Rank: WR28)
This is a great matchup for the Jets. Tennessee has been dreadful against WRs. As a team, they are averaging 42 points against for fantasy WRs. Yes, 2 of those games have been against Kyler and Russ. Well, let me look at their defensive roster. Oh yeah, they were dreadful last year and did almost nothing in the secondary to improve it. Corey Davis has been targeted 22 times through his 3 games, which leads the team. Additionally, Elijah Moore and Jeff Smith did not practice on Thursday and are questionable for this week’s game. Jamison Crowder may return to action, but Davis is the best WR on the team.
Additionally, this will be a revenge game for Corey and that will no doubt be in the mind of both he and Zach Wilson going into this game. Corey is under flex consideration this week.
Rob Gronkowski, TB @ NE (Consensus Rank: TE9, My Rank: TE4)
This has nothing to do with fantasy and everything to do with my brain. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are going to go nuclear on Sunday Night in Foxborough. Gronk may catch 6 TEs. He may spike it so hard that the game needs to be canceled because it caused an earthquake. All I know is that Brady gets it to whoever he wants. Matchup be damned. This week, he will be targeted Gronk everywhere.
Cute & Supple Pass Catchers (Others receiving votes):
Call me crazy, but I think Henry Ruggs is gonna get a couple of chances on another deep shot this game against the Chargers. I don’t think the Raiders defense can stop Herbert and so Carr will be looking to make some plays happen. He is averaging over 20 yards per catch this season so he only needs a few opportunities to make himself a relevant flex if you are desperate.
Dawson Knox is really interesting this week if you need a flier at TE. Touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and a great matchup in Houston who has allowed 76 yards to the position on average, plus an egregious 11 yards per catch.
I have to imagine Philly will be throwing the ball against the Chiefs to stay in the game. It feels like his most trusted target is Dallas Goedert, so I would feel some confidence with him in my lineup this week.
NOT SO HOT & ROUGH PASS CATCHERS:
Embed from Getty ImagesAllen Robinson, CHI vs DET (Consensus Rank: WR20, My Rank: WR40)
As an owner of Allen Robinson in multiple leagues, I refuse to rank him anywhere near startable. I don’t care if it is the Lions. I won’t have him back in my lineup until I see the targets go up. Until I see the targets being actually on target. Until the Bears GET THEIR HEADS OUT OF THEIR ASSES AND LEARN HOW TO PLAY OFFENSE. Sorry… I lost my cool there for a second. It’s been a rough couple of weeks.
After Week 1’s 11 targets, I was hopeful. Week 2 really had me spooked with 4 targets, but maybe it was an aberration. Week 3 with the future of this franchise in Justin Fields at the helm… I won’t do it anymore. I desperately am hoping he is traded at the deadline to someone who actually cares about this man.
Robby Anderson, CAR at DAL (Consensus Rank: WR31, My Rank: WR49)
Not only am I not starting Robby, but he is the last person on my bench and he is 1 game away from being dropped. It is asbolutely mistifying but Darnold is not looking at his old teammate at all. 11 targets through 3 games and a less than 50% catch rate on those targets. Good thing you extended him for 2 years, $29M and $20M guaranteed right before the season.
There is absolutely no multiverse in which you can play him against Dallas, even with CMC out and Carolina likely trailing in this game. Yes, I own Robinson and Anderson in the same leagues. Don’t be me.
Tyler Higbee, LAR vs AZ (Consensus Rank: TE11, My Rank: TE15)
Remember a few years ago when you could actually stream the Tight End position based on who was playing Arizona? They were that bad! Well, it seems like they may have figured it out.
This year they are averaging under 3 catches per game on almost 6 targets per game. 50% completion percentage is awesome. Higbee can be annoyingly inconsistent as well which doesn’t help things. I would consider other options if you can.
That is the Week 4 Hot or Not in the books. This is only the 2nd time I am writing this article and this week was a bit more mellow in the jokes department. Let me know what you thought of it. Do you want more fantasy analysis? Football analysis? Useless banter? I am good at the useless banter.
Anyways, I hope you enjoyed it! Thanks!
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