Hot Or Not: Fantasy Dating Week 3 – 9/25/21

If you are reading this right now there are a few things you need to know. 

First, Goingfor2.com and I are not held liable for any trauma that this column may cause.

Second, I’m sorry for that bad joke. There are going to be a lot more and I won’t be sorry for those because if you continue to read from this point on, then you just can’t be helped. 

Third, this column is going to be a throw-up of words onto your screen that say whether I think a guy is being undervalued or overvalued by the consensus ranks of GoingFor2.com for the given week. Matthew Berry has perfected this type of column over the years and it is something that has inspired me to write about football. I hope I can do it justice. 

Fourth, welcome to the first edition of Hot or Not: Fantasy Dating. If you’re standing, relax and pull up a chair. If you were already sitting, get off your lazy ass and go for a jog. Let’s get into this thing for Week 3.

HOT & STEAMY QUARTERBACKS:

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Jalen Hurts, PHI @ DAL

I will start this off by saying Hurts is not an elite passer. However, this game feels like a get-right game after he and the Eagles’ offense struggled at home against the 49ers in Week 2. Dallas has been suspect at best on defense the last few years and Hurts has played against this team before. In Week 16 of the 2020 season, Hurts went 21 of 39 for 342 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and added 69 yards (nice) on the ground. That is over 20 points and he was QB12 that week.

For Week 3, he is ranked 8th on Goingfor2.com. I think he is a top 5 QB this week because Hurts has a better understanding of the offense, has better weapons in the passing game, and similarly to the game last year, it should have a positive game script.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs SEA

Smack my ass and call me sally (this is something Kirk would say right?) but Kirk is QB9 and averaging 23 points through 2 games this year. Yes, those games came against Cincy (which went to OT) and Arizona, each of whom do not have good defenses (outside of that beast Chandler Jones). But this production is not totally abnormal for the “YOU LIKE THAT” man.

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He finished last season as QB13 averaging just over 19 fantasy points a game. So I think he will regress this season, but this is not where his streak of 20+ points ends. Unlike Hurts, Kirk will give you basically nothing besides a bad touchdown dance with his legs. However, he has thrown the ball 32 and 49(!!!!!) times in his 2 games this season. With Dalvin Cook not practicing at all this week, and Russell Wilson cooking, I find it a strong possibility that we see another positive game script for the Minnesota passing game. I have Kirk ranked higher than Rodgers for Week 3.

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Justin Fields, CHI @ CLE

Here is a stat that may surprise you. Cleveland ranks as the 3rd best defense (through 2 games) in terms of points given up to QBs. Said in a better way, they are giving up a lot of points to quarterbacks. You’ll tell me, “yea but they played Mahomes”. I’ll tell you, “yea but they played Tyrod and Davis Mills.” 

I don’t think Justin Fields has the whole playbook down. I also don’t think the Bears OL will be able to stop a leaky faucet, let alone Myles Garrett for 4 quarters. But ranked as the 18th best QB in fantasy this week seems low for a guy that is going to be the fastest player on the field this Sunday. If you are in a 12 team (or less) league, you aren’t gonna start him. But in deeper leagues and Superflex, I would be excited about him in my lineup.

NOT SO HOT & PROBABLY SWEATY QUARTERBACKS:

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Aaron Rodgers, GB @ SF

In 2020, with the entire 49ers roster either on the COVID list, IR, or stuck in the Chick-fil-a drive-thru for the entire game (I know they are closed on Sunday I just am craving a chicken sandwich), Rodgers was able to carve up the depleted 49ers defense. However, it was a very different story in 2019. No, I am not saying the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl, nor am I saying that it will be the same story without Saleh as the 49ers DC. What I am saying is this 49ers defense fundamentally knows how to slow Rodgers down. For the first 6 quarters of their contests played in the 2019 season (reg season + playoffs), the Packers scored 8 total points compared to the 49ers 64 points. Rodgers would score 2 touchdowns in the 3rd and 4th quarters of their playoff game. 

I don’t think we will see a blowout on Sunday Night. But I am not confident that the Packers are winning this game on the arm of Rodgers. The Packers’ defense has not been good to start the season, so if GB gets down early, yike (just one yike).

Josh Allen, BUF @ WFT

Josh Allen has not been crisp to start the 2021 season. He is looking more like the 2019 QB that was primed to break out instead of the MVP candidate he was last year. His rushing has not fallen off, but he hasn’t found the end zone yet on the ground. That being said, he has played Pittsburgh and Miami, both of whom have very good defenses (even if 35-0 was the score against the Dolphins). 

I know that Washington’s defense hasn’t lived up to expectations so far this year. A lot of that falls on the DL not being technically sound. This could sound like a hot take because of these struggles, but I feel like they will present a very tough matchup for Josh. They will try to keep him in the pocket and in front of them. This could lead to less of an impact on the ground and their natural pass rush is good enough to get home without blitzing. I wouldn’t be surprised with another week outside of the top 10.

HOT & THICK RUNNING BACKS:

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Ty’Son Williams, BAL @ DET

Good things happen when you start your players against Detroit. Right now our rankers have Ty’Son as a high flex play against a defense that has allowed 35 and 41 points in their first 2 games. Baltimore has a committee of backs, yes. And Lamar runs plenty, agreed. But I believe Ty’Son is the back they want to get the most touches (out-touching Murray 27 to 19). 

The worry is whether he gets enough catches for those easy reception points or if he gets vultured by Latavius Murray at the goal line. Both are valid fears. However, Packers RBs combined for 7 catches against DET in a game script that didn’t favor the pass (Ty’Son is the only BAL RB with a catch). I can’t help ease the stress of a possible vulture, but I can point out that Elijah Mitchell scored on a 38-yard touchdown run against these very same Lions and maybe Ty’Son breaks one too.

The game script is going to be very positive for an already run-first offense. This feels like the week that he really pays off. I have him as a mid-tier RB2 this week.

Mike Davis, ATL @ NYG

You’re reading this right now and about to click off this column because you just picked up Cordarrelle Patterson in your league and you think I’m clueless. Well, I am clueless. But that doesn’t change my thought that this is the week that Mike Davis shows us what we saw in 2020. 

Mike Davis was the leading ball carrier and a top 4 pass-catching option in 2020 with the Panthers (in weeks he played). In 2021, with the Falcons, Mike Davis is… the leading ball carrier and a top 4 pass-catching option. Limited sample size but he is handling 57% of the carries and is actually 3rd on the team in targets, behind Ridley and Pitts, with 13. Sure Patterson is sexy cause he is so thick. But Mike Davis is thick too! Look at the title of this section! 

Team RBs are averaging 27 points against the Giants through 2 games, which is the 8th most in the league. The main thing going for Mike is that I believe they actually have a chance to be in this game. The Falcons got demolished by the Eagles and the Bucs, and while the Giants may win this game, I doubt they do it handily. He should be a decent flex play in a PPR league.

Cute & Curvy Running Backs (Others receiving votes):

I’m not sure why but I keep staring at David Montgomery on our rankings and he just seems low to me in the teens. Am I high on the Bears? Oh god. Please tell me I’m not high on the Bears. In a game where your prized rookie is getting his first start, ideally, I don’t want him to throw it 40 times. I think Montgomery gets 20 touches easily, it just depends what he does with them in an ok matchup against Cleveland.

Kenyan Drake gets his revenge game against Miami, as the likely starter Josh Jacobs is doubtful this week. The Dolphins’ defense is centered around their secondary and not getting beat deep. I think their “plan” is to prevent Waller and Ruggs from hurting them and that should leave the running game and dump-offs free all day for the Raiders. Drake is startable this week.

I don’t have any shares of the Broncos backfield, but if I could only pick one of Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams to start this week against the Jets, I would go Melvin.

In super deep leagues, this feels like a week where James Conner might fall into the end zone against the Jaguars. Edmonds is not trusted on the goal line, so if they get in close it will be between Kyler keeping it or handing it to Conner.

NOT SO HOT & TOO BROAD RUNNING BACKS:

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Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs PHI

I got to give them credit where they deserve it, but Philly knows how to stop the run. They are going to be one of those sneaky teams that fantasy owners need to watch out for with their RBs.

The narrative around Zeke this week is that he is washed and Pollard is the best RB in the backfield. I couldn’t disagree with that statement more. In fact, Zeke looks renewed this year. I just think this is a down game for him. The Eagles secondary is doo doo butts and they have Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper. Why run Zeke 20 times into the teeth of a good running defense when you can throw it? Zeke always is a threat to fall in the end zone, but I don’t think he will get you RB1 numbers this week.

Damien Harris, NE vs NO

Harris is in a very similar boat to Zeke. I think he has been running well and has a chance to fall into the end zone, but this doesn’t feel like a good matchup. The Saints are amongst the bottom 10 teams in points allowed to RBs through 2 games. In a game that I think will be very close and competitive, I believe Mac Jones will need to throw the ball and Harris has almost no PPR appeal.

HOT & TENDER WIDE RECEIVERS:

Chris Godwin, TB @ LAR

Godwin has been Brady’s most consistent WR through 2 weeks. Also, I don’t expect him to get the Ramsey shadow this week. Ramsey hasn’t been shadowing so far this year, but when these teams played last year he followed Evans. Godwin has 18 targets through 2 games and I expect this game to be a fireworks display on offense. Both teams have good defenses, but their offenses have controlled the tempo of games so far this season. This could be a huge boon for fantasy players in this matchup (OBVIOUS FORESHADOWING). Give me Godwin as a WR1 this week.

Robert Woods, LAR vs TB

Yada yada yada. Obvious foreshadowing. Ok, we are caught up. Woods owners are awfully worried heading into week 3. Not only is Cooper Kupp the #1 WR in fantasy, but Woods has exactly half the number of catches as Kupp. To make matters worse, Woods owners probably had Kupp available to select when they took Woods in the draft. It all hurts right now. The bright side is the routes run and the targets suggest it is only a matter of time. Kupp has an insane 21 targets, but Woods is comfortably 2nd on the team with 13. I expect some regression to the mean here from both WRs. Woods is not clearly the #2 WR in terms of talent on this team and Stafford knows this. 

For the matchup this week, Tampa is incredibly vulnerable from the slot. A lot of you will say that is more good news for Kupp, and it is. However, over the last 2 seasons, Woods lines up from the slot almost as much as Kupp does. Give me Woods on a bounce back this week. Give us the 100 yards and a TD Woods owners deserve!

Pick an option. Enter your phone #. If you you’re right…..Win free stuff!

Mike Williams, LAC @ KC

Williams is finally living up to his draft status because the Chargers changed up his route tree. They are getting the ball in his hands closer to the line of scrimmage. They are giving him more opportunities in 1-on-1s. Herbert and OC Joe Lombardi have made the necessary changes. The guy is like 16ft tall or something, just get him the ball and he will make plays. His 22 targets and 15 catches lead the team. 

I don’t think there is anyone on KC’s defense that can go 1v1 with Mike on the outside. I say he continues his breakout campaign against their division rival with another top 10 week.

Marquise Brown, BAL @ DET

Our rankers are straight doing Marquise wrong. I know there are a lot of WRs to be excited about, but c’mon! 36th?! What does a guy gotta do to get some flex appeal?

In Marquise’s last 8 games (going back to last season), he has a TD in 7 of them (8 total TDs). In those same games, he had at least 6 targets in all but one game. We all know the kind of speed Brown possesses, so 1 touch could be 75 yards to the house. Now he is finally getting consistent looks from Lamar and, more importantly, Marquise is cashing in on those targets for scores. 

I know I mentioned this earlier… but the Lions gave up 35 and 41 points in 2021 thus far. The Ravens are going to score… a lot. “Give me Marquise to find the end zone again for $1000, Alex”.

Cute & Supple Wide Receivers (Others receiving votes):

I’ve mentioned starting your players against the Lions twice now. Start your players against the Jaguars. Start your players against the Jaguars. There… now I have done the same for the Jags. The Cardinals are traveling to the space coast of Florida and will probably hit the over by themselves. Hopkins may not play but even if he does, there will be another WR involved for Arizona. The targets say it will be Rondale Moore. However, the snaps/routes run lean more toward Green/Kirk. One of them will hold value on Sunday. My gut tells me Christian Kirk.

On the other sideline of that game, Marvin Jones has been the top end zone target for Trevor Lawrence. The Jags OC also has worked with him in Detroit, so the rapport there is apparent. I wouldn’t be surprised if he grabs a garbage time TD.

Call me a sad and pathetic homer… but I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami has a few plays to get Will Fuller involved in this game against the Raiders.

NOT SO HOT & ROUGH WIDE RECEIVERS:

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Mike Evans, TB @ LAR

I know. I know. I know. You were finally starting to like me and now I don’t make any sense. Oh… you weren’t starting to like me. Well, that’s nothing new.

Yes, I think the Bucs and Rams game will be high-scoring. However, I am incredibly wary of the Ramsey shadow. Yes, some WRs have managed to have “alright” days while being covered by him, but do you want 3 catches for 50 yards from your WR2? It is no guarantee that Evans is shadowed, but even if he isn’t, you’re banking on a TD or a long play for him to pay off. It is feast or famine for the big man and I think this week is famine. You probably need to start him if you have him, but if you can afford to make other arrangements, I only have him as a low-end flex play.

Devonta Smith, PHI @ DAL

This is more about the specific ranking of Devonta as a WR2 than anything. I think Devonta should have a decent game, but there is one thing that strikes a little fear into me. Trevon Diggs came on very strong towards the tail end of 2020 and has carried that over into 2021. If Diggs shadows Smith, it will be his toughest assignment to date and I have some apprehension about how the rookie may fare.

HOT & JUICY TIGHT ENDS:

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Darren Waller, LV vs MIA

Waller is ranked as the #2 TE this week on our site. That is WAYYY TOO LOW! Waller is awesome and amazing and every adjective that starts with the letter A. Amaze-balls! Yea, that one too.

Last year, Waller torched the Dolphins who used Eric Rowe in man coverage on him all game. That is what the Dolphins do. Eric Rowe is the TE eraser for the team… that is unless he goes up against Kelce or Waller. Rowe was gashed for over 100 yards in those games and if Flores comes up with the same defensive game plan, I expect a similar outcome. You are obviously starting Waller with high hopes. You can raise your expectations.

Gerald Everett, SEA @ MIN

I expect a lot of points in this game and a lot of them to come through the air. Everett hasn’t been too involved in the offense, but with TE’s you are basically playing blindfolded spinny darts and hoping they fall into the end zone. I’ll take that chance on Everett this week in what look’s to be a barn burner.

Cute & Succulent Tight Ends (Others Receiving Votes):

Give me Logan Thomas this week to finally have his breakout game. Buffalo has always had a problem against big slot TEs and Thomas fits that description. If Heinecke doesn’t only look at Terry McLaurin all game, the conditions are ripe for the picking.

Gronk score touchdown? Gronk score touchdown. GRONK SCORE TOUCHDOWN!!

One more player against the Lions for good measure. If Mark Andrews is going to have a get-right game, this has to be the week. If it doesn’t happen, we can all officially hit the panic button.

NOT SO HOT & DRY TIGHT ENDS:

Uhhh all of them???

Austin Hooper, CLE vs CHI

Hooper has gained some steam in deeper and TE premium leagues this week because of the injuries in Cleveland. It looks like OBJ will be a go this week, so that hurts Hooper. But Baker just spreads the ball around a ton. They seem to have 8 different guys catch a pass each game. 2 RBs, 2 or 3 TEs, 3 or 4 WRs, sometimes Baker even catches a pass! I get that the position is so rough, but I’m staying away.

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If you have gotten to this point, first off thank you. 

Second off, were my section title descriptors about chicken or people? You be the judge. 

Third, let me know your opinion on the article through Twitter @KyleTheCommish. Comments, criticisms, suggestions. I will always tweet when my articles go live if you are looking for a reminder. Thank you again for reading until the end of the article!

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