Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 10 in the NFL
What is happening in the football world right now? I love some parody don’t get me wrong. But things don’t make sense. Consistency is almost non-existent this year with a few exceptions (looking at you Cooper Kupp).
The #1 QB over his last 2 games is Jimmy Garroppolo. Carson Wentz is in the top 4 of that stat. Josh Allen is the only familiar name in the top 4. Yet he scored 10 points last week… AGAINST THE JAGUARS! That is his lowest output since 2019 when he did it against the Ravens and Patriots. I’m not even going to touch Mahomes in this intro, keep reading for that.
Let’s just talk about normal football for a second too. Mike White and Josh Johnson throwing for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in back-to-back weeks for the Jets. The Jets beat the Titans and Bengals as their only wins this season. They lost to Atlanta and Carolina. The Jaguars are 2-0 in games in which they score a FG. That is a real thing. Did you know the Patriots had 5 wins this season? I was shocked when I saw the standings the other day. Going back to December of 2020, the Patriots have beaten the Jets x3, the Chargers x2, Houston, and Carolina.
Things are weird. It has me questioning my picks more these days because my fantasy teams are doing simply awful this year. However, the opinions I am giving here are still based on research and data. Is that information cherry-picked to my liking? Of course. But the process is sound, even if it isn’t working most of the time. Bear with me as I go through this rough patch.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesDak Prescott, DAL vs ATL (Consensus Rank: QB4, My Rank: QB3)
Dakota tsk tsk tsk. Probably more famous than his sisters from the North and South. But would either of his sisters let the Broncos manhandle them? Dakotas are supposed to be rugged, free, and strong! You know what is free but not at all strong? The Falcons defense.
Before we move completely away from Denver, it should be noted that their defense is one of the top 5 toughest against QBs this year. And Dak did end up getting some junk time scores to not absolutely kill you. But it sure felt like I was dead when I had no pulse at halftime of the 1 PM games. The Falcons on the other hand are in the top 5 of easiest matchups for QBs in 2021. Also, there is this courtesy of our own @geofflambert77.
It should also be stated that CeeDee Lamb was not 100% in the game against Denver (imagine playing Lamb, Dak, and Pollard all in one league hahahahahaha pain). In his press availability on Wednesday, CeeDee said “I’m much better than last week”.
It’s not too often that I get the opportunity to write about Dak, because he is awesome, but I felt like the questions around him possibly coming back from the calf injury too early are overblown. Dak looked fine moving around. There was just a lot that Denver did well, and the Cowboys did not, which led to a 50% completion percentage. Have no fear with him this week. He is a top 3 play and I expect he will start a new streak of 3 TDs per game starting with Atlanta.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs NO (Consensus Rank: QB15, My Rank: QB11)
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The birth of Ryan Tannehill coincided with his move to Tennessee. The rebirth of Ryan Tannehill coincided with Derrick Henry going to IR. It makes sense really. Tennessee may still be a run-first team, but Henry had 10 touchdowns prior to his injury. The Titans were totally lopsided in terms of offensive touchdowns in the red zone compared to the rest of the league. After 7 weeks of the season, Tennessee had the 3rd lowest Pass-to-Rush TD ratio at 8 to 13, courtesy of JJ Zachariason. Since his injury in the 1st quarter of Week 8, the Titans have thrown 4 passing touchdowns compared to 2 rushing. One of those rushing touchdowns was a Tannehill keeper…
When it comes to this matchup against the Saints, well it’s not a great one on paper. However, attacking them on the ground is more difficult than through the air. Marshon Lattimore has been excellent this season and will shadow (likely AJ Brown) the top WR for the Titans. However, Matt Ryan was able to throw on Lattimore and Co. for over 340 yards and grabbed 3 touchdowns to boot. The week before that, Brady dropped 375 yards and a fourth touchdown. Brady is in a category by himself, but Matt Ryan having a great day against them is a welcome sign for our Ryan this week.
NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesPatrick Mahomes, KC @ LV (Consensus Rank: QB5, My Rank: QB6)
I mean what are you supposed to do? What am I supposed to do? I am in the Mahomes boat of sadness right now with y’all. It’s cramped, the babies are yelling, the men are crying, and his brother is still dancing like an idiot. We can’t bench him. We have to just let him figure it out.
The Raiders this year have actually been pretty decent against the pass. They are in the bottom 10 to the QB position and haven’t had a QB score 23 fantasy points on them all season. The highest was Jalen Hurts a few weeks back, who was supplemented by 61 rushing yards. Mahomes averages 25 rushing yards per game. Jalen averages 55.
One thing that I think could be a positive for Patrick this week is his familiarity with his opponent. He has played the Raiders 6 times and averages over 313 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game against them. He is 5-1 vs the Raiders in his career. However, the thing that the Raiders do very well that has been bugging Mahomes this year is 2 deep defense. Vegas specifically plays Tampa-2, which has a middle linebacker drop to the center of the field with the 2 deep safeties behind. This should leave some openings in the short and intermediate areas of the field, but I don’t expect many big plays which Mahomes has tried to force this season.
Jalen Hurts, PHI @ DEN (Consensus Rank: QB10, My Rank: QB14)
The rushing floor has not gone away for Hurts which makes him a tough player to have on the Not list. But Philadelphia has completely gone away from their plan at the beginning of the season to sling it around the yard. Over the past two games, Hurts has a combined 31 passing attempts. He has 5 games this season with more than 31 passing attempts. Hurts has five games this season where he has not reached 200 passing yards, including every game under 31 passing attempts.
So this means you are banking on the rushing yardage and more specifically a rushing touchdown. The good news is he has 5 rushing touchdowns this season. The bad news is Jordan Howard is now on the team and has 3 touchdowns in 2 games. When they get in close they are handing it to Howard and getting out of dodge because he is converting.
This matchup is also not a good one. Denver just shut down Dak Prescott in Dallas, who is a much better quarterback. They are allowing only 1.3 touchdowns per game to QBs and are getting one turnover per game out of them. I’d look for other options this week.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Christian McCaffrey, CAR @ AZ (Consensus Rank: RB3, My Rank: RB1)
CMC had less than 50% of the snaps last week. He had over 100 yards in the game anyway. When he was on the field, they gave him the ball and with PJ Walker at QB this week they will do it again. I really don’t think the scoreboard is going to change the fact that he will get 25+ touches and probably get over 150 yards in this game.
Arizona isn’t a fantastic matchup on paper for a few reasons. One, they score a lot of points. Even without Kyler and Hopkins last week they put up 31 points. That means Carolina may have to give up on the running game. That probably works in Christian’s favor anyway because he has over 50 yards receiving in all of his healthy games this season. The small issue is that the Cardinals have only allowed 2 touchdowns to RBs through nine games played. But that feels like more of a product of teams being down on the scoreboard than anything else. When the Panthers get in close they are still running the ball. Their pass-to-rush TD ratio is 7 to 9. Arizona has the 4th least RB carries against them but is allowing 4.7 yards per carry to the position. The matchup isn’t as bad as it looks.
I mentioned PJ Walker already. He got a start for Carolina last season. CMC was hurt at the time but we do know that Mike Davis ended up getting 19 carries and 2 targets in that game. This was the highest amount of carries Mike Davis got in a single game last year. Just saying.
Devin Singletary, BUF @ NYJ (Consensus Rank: RB24, My Rank: RB16)
As of this writing, Zack Moss is still in the concussion protocol. He could be cleared on Saturday. But I don’t expect they will rush Moss back when Devin has played fine this season.
With Moss out for most of the game last week against Jacksonville, Devin handled his largest target share in 2021 so far. He grabbed 7 balls on 8 targets. A very modest 43 yards gained on those catches but that type of volume is awesome to see since Moss was running a lot more routes when they were both healthy. Singletary would also be expected to take over goal-line RB duties. Matt Breida is the 3rd back on the roster and he is a smaller, shiftier player than Devin is. Perhaps Breida is activated for this game and takes some of the receiving work away though, keep an eye on that.
The Bills also happen to be playing the Jets. Fortune favors the running backs who play the Jets. Here is a crazy stat for you. Running backs are averaging 2.2 touchdowns per game against the Jets in 2021. Add onto that the 197 yards from scrimmage that they give up and this matchup is pure bliss. Honestly, I would start Singletary even if Moss does clear the concussion protocol. The matchup is just too good.
Leonard Fournette, TB @ WSH (Consensus Rank: RB15, My Rank: RB10)
Injuries are an issue for Tampa. Defense is an issue for Washington. The last time I wrote about Super Bowl Lenny it wasn’t so hot. I wanted it to be hot. It was not. The Saints shut down the running game as they always do and I was banking on some cheeky checkdowns. Only 3 came. That all changes this week.
In games that the Bucs were largely in control of in Weeks 5-7, Lenny touched the ball over 15 times each game. He got 90 yards in each of those games. He also scored at least one touchdown in each of those games. He also scored over 17 fantasy points in each matchup. The spread for this game is TB -9.5. Book Lenny with 20 fantasy points this week against a Washington team that is clueless on defense this season.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
At the time of this writing, it doesn’t look like Dalvin Cook will be suspended or forced to sit out this week due to the legal situation surrounding him. However, if Alexander Mattison is out on waivers you need to grab him and keep an eye on Twitter. If Cook is out, Mattison becomes a top 5 RB against a Chargers team that is giving up the most rushing yards per game to the position.
Another caveat running back that is maybe cute. Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor may be the only Patriots running backs with a pulse this week. Bolden has looked OK in limited reps this year. JJ has only really played a few snaps in the second Jets game but scored twice. I would prefer Bolden if both Harris and Stevenson are out this week. Neither has practiced through Thursday. I don’t expect their game against Cleveland to be a barn burner but at least one of their running backs should have some flex appeal.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesD’Andre Swift, DET @ PIT (Consensus Rank: RB10, My Rank: RB14)
There have been two RBs that have scored any kind of touchdown against Pittsburgh this season. Alex Collins. D’Ernest Johnson. That is the list. Both were scored on rushes from inside the 5. Swift has cashed in on a few goal-to-go touchdowns this year, I won’t deny that. But when he doesn’t score a touchdown this season, Swift has scored above 10 points only once.
His receiving output has been very solid this season, but he is not doing anything on the ground. I don’t love the matchup either because not only is PIT not giving up touchdowns, but they are holding minimal receiving yards against to RBs, which is where Swift is excellent. To be fair, I don’t think many teams can really match up with Swift 1v1 and succeed. But 37 yards against is what they are averaging. Swift is averaging over 51 yards by himself. Something has to give, I suppose.
Michael Carter, NYJ vs BUF (Consensus Rank: RB20, My Rank: RB25)
In what was one of a dozen weird games last week, the Jets scored a gazillion points and Josh Johnson threw for over 300 yards in relief of Mike White. Yet, Michael Carter got only 1 catch the entire night. Weird for a guy who had 9 and 14 targets the previous two weeks. I think there are two reasons for that. He has a connection with Mike White or at least Mike White likes checking it down and taking what is available to him. I also believe that Ty Johnson playing more snaps in a game that was out of reach for the entire second half was not a coincidence. Johnson played 42% of the snaps, which was his most since Carter had really burst onto the scene in Week 4. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Jets will be able to keep up with the Bills (if Josh Allen gets his head out of his ass) and this could be more of a Ty Johnson game again.
That being said, Mike White is the starting QB again this week. That should be good for Carter with all of the dump-offs. But this is also the Bills defense who has been lights out this season to QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. They are in the top 3 in the least points to every single position. I don’t think that anything will come easy for the crowned king of East Rutherford this week, including dump-offs.
Adrian Peterson, TEN vs NO (Consensus Rank: RB35, My Rank: RB38)
Pretty cool last week that All Day scores in his first game as a Titan. It’s pretty cool that he is still in such good shape in general. He saw 30% of the snaps after signing to the team less than 6 days prior. Plus, when he was on the field he got touches. 10 rushes to be exact, plus a target.
McNichols only played 45% of the snaps (sorry about that call last week) and only got 35 yards on 10 touches. Not so inspiring. The problem is that AP also didn’t make the most of his touches. 26 yards on 11 touches were even worse than McNichols, but it was also worse than D’Onta Foreman who got 29 yards on 5 touches. The touchdown saved his fantasy day for any desperate owners but it also saved AP’s image. Box score lookers may be looking at AP as a possible starter this week. Don’t fall into that.
On top of the messy backfield in Tennessee, you know from my Tannehill blurb that the Titans are throwing the ball for touchdowns more without Henry. You also know that the Saints’ defense hasn’t been so hot against the pass. But they have been very hot against the run. The Saints have only given up 53 rushing yards per game to running backs this year (which is how AP will get most of his work) on a 2.8 yards per carry average. Last year, the Saints gave up only 1 rushing touchdown to a running back. This year they have given up 4 (Antonio Gibson x2, CMC, Saquon). Don’t start your old-school running backs against the Saints.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesMike Evans, TB @ WSH (Consensus Rank: WR11, My Rank: WR4)
From the Bucs side of things, you never know what you are gonna get from Mike Evans. He could drop 100 yards and 3 TDs or 2 catches for 20 yards. Brady is so good with sharing the ball and making sure everyone stays happy. Well, I’m not sure if sharing is going to be an issue this week. AB and Gronk are out. Godwin logged only one limited practice this week and the Bucs signed Perriman to the practice squad if he can’t go. Evans is by far the best option as far as pass catchers for Brady go.
As for the team the Bucs are playing, Washington is sick on defense. And by sick I mean it makes people want to throw up from disgust when they watch them. They are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs in the NFL. They are also giving up the most fantasy points to QBs. Tom Brady happens to be the leading passer in the NFL this season. Could the injuries to the pass catchers make them a bit more run-centric? Possibly, but Evans will get his, especially in the red zone.
I honestly don’t feel like I need much more than that to convince you Evans is a top 5 play this week. He is good at football? Ok, I’m done.
Mike Williams, LAC vs MIN (Consensus Rank: WR22, My Rank: WR15)
Nothing seems to be working for Mike Williams as of late. Three straight games under 8 fantasy points and now you’re panicking and thinking he is back to his old self again. Don’t press the panic button just yet. During the broadcast of the Eagles game last week, the analyst mentioned that Mike was struggling to get back to 100% from his knee injury. Nothing that was going to prevent him from playing, but that he was not in top form. I think this is a major reason he only has 4 catches on his last 10 targets.
Ok, so why is he on the Hot list this week? A few reasons. Hopefully, one more week farther from the injury is good news for him. But he also gets the Minnesota Vikings who are struggling to contain WRs this season. Part of the reason for their struggles is their top corner, Patrick Peterson, is on the IR. Their other top corner, Breeland, got injured in Week 9 and he would be matched up against Williams if he plays.
At the beginning of the season, Mike was getting targeted more consistently than he is now because they were getting him involved closer to the line of scrimmage and he was rewarding that faith. The Chargers should understand that it will take more than one person to bring down Mike Williams in the open field. Give him the opportunity and he will show up. For an offense that has been struggling recently, they need to get back to that.
Travis Kelce, KC @ LV (Consensus Rank: TE1, My Rank: TE1)
Remember how I mentioned that the Raiders run a Tampa-2 defense and that means there should be some openings in the short to intermediate areas of the field? Kelce should have a field day this week.
I know he hasn’t been as dominant this year. You took him in the 1st round and you’re probably a little upset. Well, he is still TE1 this year and it hasn’t been Kelce’s fault. It has been Mahomes who seems to be overcomplicating everything.
Here are the fantasy outputs for Kelce with Mahomes against the Raiders:
37.8
11.2
23.7
14
24.8
26.86
The Raiders gave up 86 yards to Gesicki, 97 yards to Fant, and 70 yards to Goedert this season (only 20 yards to Andrews, I know… meh). The openings are there for these uber-athletic tight ends. I think the question is just whether Mahomes can get out of his own way. If he can, Kelce will drop his first 20 burger since Week 2.
Pat Freirmuth, PIT vs DET (Consensus Rank: TE11, My Rank: TE8)
A new weekly fringe TE1 has emerged. This one is quite surprising to me I am going to be honest. Not that I thought he was a bad prospect out of Penn St. But rookie tight ends normally have an adjustment period that is longer than the first 5 weeks of the season. Once Juju got hurt, he didn’t really have much of a choice now did he?
Over his last three games, Pat has enjoyed a 60% snap share and at least 6 targets in every game. A 19.8% target share during that time, trailing only Diontae Johnson on the team. Perhaps most importantly, Pat is a red zone option for Ben. He has 5 red-zone targets during this period, tied with Diontae for 2nd on the team. Of all of those targets, Najee Harris is the only Steeler to get a red zone target and turn it into points besides Pat who has scored 3 times compared to Najee’s one. All of this to say, Pat is emerging and if you have him on your team, consider starting him every week going forward.
This week especially is a favorable matchup with the Lions who are averaging over 13 yards per catch to the tight end position, tied for most in the NFL. The Lions haven’t been gashed by the position in part by them losing by so many points this year. However, the Steelers have been off and on with their offensive production within a game and I think this one could be closer than the spread of 9 points indicates. I’d start Pat with confidence this week over some of the usual suspects like Schultz, Goedert, and Henry.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
So I have made some good calls this season. Like having Deebo on the Not list last week because Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle looked to be back to 2020 form. With JimmyG at the helm, the 49ers are much more focused on spreading the ball around to their playmakers. Aiyuk and Samuel had 8 targets last week. Kittle had 9. The week prior, Deebo had 9 and Aiyuk had 7. There is no doghouse or whatever injury was happening anymore. And the best part about Aiyuk’s game is that he is an end zone option and big play waiting to happen. With 3 full “non-doghouse” games with JimmyG at the helm, Aiyuk has 2 touchdowns on 6 red zone targets. Those 6 targets lead the team in those games.
I’m not exactly sure why… but the Jaguars want to get Jamal Agnew touches. He has led the team in wide receiver targets in 3 of their past 4 games. Ahead of Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault. Plus he isn’t getting a full complement of snaps. I know… weird. The Colts are a great matchup for wideouts this season and I don’t expect the Jags will be able to stop Jonathan Taylor in this game if you get what I’m saying. You have to be pretty cheeky, desperate, or just plain nuts… but Agnew should be on people’s radar this week.
In a world where Breshad Perriman is signed to the Bucs practice squad and then elevated for the game, one man has a responsibility to save the world. *amazing theme music, swooshing sounds, fade to One Buc Place, OJ Howard emerges* This guy? OJ Howard? We are really going to try this again? Yea I’m a sucker. Antonio Brown and Gronk are certainly out this week. It looks like Chris Godwin may be out, given the Perriman acquisition. That leaves Mike Evans and a bunch of JAGs (Just A Guy). Brady loves spreading the ball around, even when the team isn’t healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised if OJ Howard gets a couple of screens and short-yardage looks because of how athletic he is. He at least has more chemistry with Howard than with Perriman.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesTyler Lockett, SEA @ GB (Consensus Rank: WR20, My Rank: WR33)
Russ is back! Time to fire up Lockett again! Right?
Lockett in 4 full games with Russ this season:
26
31.8
7.1
6.4
You know this as a Lockett owner. It is true boom or bust for him. Ranking him 33 is actually pretty dumb of me because he is going to be more likely in the 40s or the single digits. Whether he booms or busts is almost impossible to predict. However, I am going to guess that Russ lost a bit of his incredible deep ball accuracy coming back from his finger injury so quickly. He will have trouble gripping the ball more and spinning it (something we saw from Tua on Thursday Night). That feels like it means more short to intermediate, and if he does go deep it will be to DK, who has the much bigger wingspan to attack the ball.
Just a personal feeling, but I’m out on Lockett this week.
Dallas Goedert, PHI @ DEN (Consensus Rank: TE9, My Rank: TE12)
Denver is one of 3 teams to have not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season. No tight end has over 70 yards against the Broncos this season. Not Schultz, Waller or Andrews.
Goedert has done well to carve out a solid role since Ertz has moved to the desert, averaging 6 targets per game. He has two games of over 70 yards during that time and is an every-down snap taker. So basically you’re hoping that Jalen Hurts (who I don’t like this week) and Dallas Goedert are going to break one of the two trends of either a touchdown or 70 yards this week. When Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson couldn’t. I’ll pass.
I must say it does feel a little bit better writing these articles after a Dolphins win. The Houston win was whatever, but we haven’t beaten the Ravens since the 1-15 year. We held them to under 100 rushing yards. We won a nationally televised game. These things just don’t happen. Therefore we are destined to lose to the Jets, Giants, or Panthers in our upcoming games. What is given must be taken back.
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