Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 12 in the NFL
Thanksgiving is one of the only holidays that I CAN actually stand anymore. I know I am alone in this opinion but I view holidays as this excuse to get around people that we normally find excuses to not be around. I view holidays as excuses to partake in an extra glass or two. I view holidays as a stressor rather than a stress reliever. Yeah… it’s a depressing way to think about it. But I don’t see Thanksgiving in that way.
Every year since I can remember, my family would take the short 30 min drive to my grandparent’s house during halftime of the Lions game. I would always be a little upset about it because I always seem to have a Lions RB on my team every year. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, nowadays it is D’Andre Swift. We would always miss a few minutes of that 3rd quarter and I’d come rushing into their house and blow right past my grandparents to get to the TV. They would let me go and at the next commercial they would set up some appetizers and I would say hello to them with a hug and kiss as every good grandkid does. They knew my face would be attached to the TV all day and we made a bargain that while the TV could be on during dinner, I would need to be participatory in conversation. I’d roll my eyes and agree, not like I had a choice. But I always loved the dinner conversations. My grandad talking about the same stories he always forgot he told. My grandmother yelling at him for always telling the same stories. Everyone just generally roasting each other.
This kind of stuff wouldn’t fly on Christmas or Easter. But Thanksgiving always felt more genuine for me. It started and ended with football but there was a lot of food and family mixed in between without many expectations. Honestly, it sounds like the perfect day.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesLamar Jackson, BAL vs CLE (Consensus Rank: QB6, My Rank: QB2)
Lamar has now had two weekends to stew on that terrible taste the last time he was on the football field. After sitting out last week with a non-Covid related illness, it seems like the plan for him is to practice this week in a limited fashion and be ready to play on Sunday. I believe he is going to come out of that tunnel like the bat out of hell he has been playing like this year and stomp the struggling Browns.
Cleveland is in the bottom 5 of the NFL in fantasy points given up to opposing QBs this year. That is with them limiting QBs to only 7 rushing yards per game. If Lamar gets under 10 rushing yards, I think the planet would instantaneously combust. The only true running QB they have played all year is Kyler. They have faced Herbert, Tyrod, Mahomes, and others who use their legs on occasion, but no one runs as much as Lamar does.
You wanna know the last time Lamar had under 24 fantasy points against Cleveland? I’ll let you know when it happens. As a starter, Lamar has produced 138 fantasy points in 5 games against the Browns. In those games here are his rushing totals: 90, 66, 103, 45, 124. I’m gonna put this out here as a long shot… but Lamar could have more rushing yards than passing.
Cam Newton, CAR @ MIA (Consensus Rank: QB10, My Rank: QB5)
Very few QBs give me the heebie-jeebies as a Dolphins fan more than Cam Newton. He has historically torched us on the ground, regardless of how well he is throwing the ball. In the red zone, he is impossible to stop. He has 8 touchdowns (3 rushing) compared to 1 interception against us. And while it is most definitely not a QB stat, he has only lost to the Dolphins once. That was the last time we faced him in last years’ Patriots-Dolphins rivalry in Miami.
The big thing with Cam for his fantasy value is obviously his rushing ability. He won’t necessarily run around you but he will run over you if he needs to. He is not afraid of contact, which makes him so dangerous in the red zone. Miami’s red zone defense has been particularly good again this season. However, under Flores, we have historically struggled against the run and more importantly running quarterbacks. Flores had the perfect plan against Lamar, but I don’t think it will be so easy here. Cam has run for over 50 rushing yards in 3 out of his 4 meetings with the Dolphins. In his first full week back last week, Cam ran the ball 10 times for 46 yards and a touchdown. I’m saying he tops that this week.
The Panthers’ offense seemed to have a lull in the middle of the game against Washington last week. However, I saw some bright spots from Cam that Darnold was not doing. He is targeting Robby Anderson. He is still keeping DJ Moore involved. But most importantly, he is getting them catchable balls. Robby Anderson was catching only 36% of his targets with Sam. DJ was catching 60%. It is a small sample size I know, but with Walker and Newton at QB, those numbers have shot up for Robby (75%) and increased for DJ (64%). Cam’s floor is the rushing, but if he adds to it with passing then I think he will be a top 5 play this week.
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NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesRussell Wilson, SEA @ WSH (Consensus Rank: QB13, My Rank: QB16)
I know… he is Russell Wilson. It doesn’t seem like this is possible to have him on the Not list. But he hasn’t scored a touchdown since returning from injury. They made it into the red zone 3 times against the Cardinals last week and only once did they cash in for a touchdown, a 2-yard score from Deejay Dallas. They didn’t score at all against the Packers the week prior. There is a lot going on in Seattle beyond just Russ’ finger.
On top of this being Russell Wilson, this is also the Washington defense we are talking about here. This team gives up a gazillion points to QBs and WRs. However, Russ hasn’t always been super fantastic in east coast time zone games. Thankfully for him, this is a Monday Night game so the body clock shouldn’t be a huge issue, but it is still interesting to see the numbers. He only has 3 games (out of 8) over 20 fantasy points on the east coast going back through the 2019 season.
So we have got the finger, the offensive issues (whether it is playcalling or just general efficiency), the east coast bug-a-boo, and possibly Russ just having checked out in a year that Seattle is 14th in the NFC, I am going to be benching him until he proves it to me. At this point in the fantasy season, I need wins, whether I am trying to reach for that playoff spot or that first-round bye, and Russ is too unreliable right now to trust.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Robinson, JAX vs ATL (Consensus Rank: RB10, My Rank: RB7)
Every game in which Jacksonville has kept the game reasonably close, James Robinson has produced. 18+ points in every game that the Jags have lost by 10 or less or won the game. The Jacksonville Jaguars are +1 this week against the Falcons, according to Vegas.
I can’t tell you why Robinson isn’t getting 100% of the work since Etienne has been out with his injury. It doesn’t make sense to me that Carlos Hyde would see 30% of the snaps and literally not even get a single touch. That might have to do with pass protection duties. However, if Jacksonville isn’t needing to throw the ball to catch up the entire game, they should be able to work Robinson onto the field more thus, increasing his touches. And he is doing some serious damage with those touches.
Every single game, except this past week against San Fran, James has a minimum of 4 yards per rush. He is also averaging over 7 yards per catch with just under 3 catches per game. With his average of 13.5 rushes per game, he is averaging around 85 yards per game. Atlanta is giving up 146 yards and at least one TD to the running back position this year. I expect an RB1 week for James.
Antonio Gibson, WSH vs SEA (Consensus Rank: RB14, My Rank: RB14)
I am confident that I have not written about a player more than I have Gibson this season. And I keep flip-flopping on him too. He actually proved me right on the Not list last week, in terms of fantasy points. But he did get 95 yards and 19 carries in the game against Carolina. It seems like Washington is committing to him (until he fumbles and gets benched again) and the run game. And it has worked out for them. They have beaten the Bucs and Panthers in back-to-back weeks because they are keeping the possession. So here I am… back in on Gibson… whatever.
Most of the reason I have Gibson high this week is this matchup with Seattle. Since returning from their bye, Seattle has given up at least 12 fantasy points to three different running backs. That is very impressive considering they have only played two teams in that time. James Conner (20), AJ Dillon (15), and Aaron Jones (12) all beat Seattle’s defense on the ground and through the air and all received at least 13 touches. Teams know the way to beat Seattle is with the running back position and they are taking advantage.
Upgrade on Gibson this week against a team that is giving up 173 yards to running backs per game this season.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
You will need to check the inactive report on Thursday night, but if Mark Ingram doesn’t go against the Bills (Kamara already ruled out), I would start Tony Jones. I know it is risky against a really good Bills defense but the Saints feature their backs heavily in the passing game and were saying how much they loved Tony Jones in the preseason. His injury led the Saints to trade for Mark Ingram, but now that he is back I will expect a heavy role in a game that I think could be closer than expected.
Jeff Wilson was the feature back last week with Elijah Mitchell out with a thumb injury. If that injury holds Mitchell out again, Wilson will keep that role that got him 20 touches. Deebo did get touches out of the backfield but Wilson is still being featured when he is on the field.
The Lions really really suck. David Montgomery really really doesn’t suck.
Not a very sexy name, but Devonta Freeman has quietly played very well this season especially of late. Since Week 6, he only has one game under 10 fantasy points. Since the bye, he has over 15 touches in every single game plus 2 touchdowns.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesDalvin Cook, MIN @ SF (Consensus Rank: RB4, My Rank: RB11)
San Francisco is playing some insane football right now. In their last two games, they have had the ball for 38 and 39 minutes respectively. That is not normal and it is crushing the fantasy upside of the team they are playing against. This week the Vikings offense is under the microscope.
Dalvin Cook is awesome and is going to get work. Mike Zimmer demands it. But if they only have the ball for 20 minutes, how much does that limit his touches? If they are losing and don’t get the ball very often, I feel like they will need to lean more on Kirk Cousins and the passing game. Dalvin does plenty of work in the passing game as well, but I am just nervous.
San Fran’s last two opponents had outstanding running backs. James Robinson scored only 11.8 points. Darrell Henderson scored only 8.1. My guess is this won’t be a 20 point week a very unique 49ers team.
Myles Gaskin, MIA vs CAR (Consensus Rank: RB19, My Rank: RB30)
This game worries me a lot for Miami. The Panthers, like every other team, are not going to respect the Dolphins’ ability to pass. They will stack the box and play the run and leave their perimeter corners to handle our playmakers which, besides Waddle and Gesicki, are not good. The Panthers blitz the 6th most in the league at 32%. The Dolphins can’t even block a 4 man rush let alone add more to that. I don’t think Miami will be scoring much at all in this game and they have only been able to run the ball on one team all year and that was the lowly Jets who average 117 rushing yards per game against them.
Carolina is 31st against the running back position this season and that is in part to how well they are at limiting the receiving upside to the position. Shaq Thompson and Co. are fantastic at covering out of the backfield. Gaskin is not getting as much receiving work compared to earlier in the season. Laird is often on the field for 3rd down passing situations. I love Patrick Laird.
Two more things bother me about Gaskin week. First, the team just claimed Phillip Lindsay on Wednesday and elevated Duke Johnson last week. Duke played pretty well in limited reps and I am pretty sure that Lindsay is the best RB on the team already without playing a snap. I don’t know how much work they get this week, but it is telling they keep trying to upgrade the position. Second, Gaskin is not giving you enough if he doesn’t fall into the end zone. The Dolphins cannot for the life of them run block when the other team knows they are running. I don’t think Gaskin scores this week, which means you’re hoping for receiving work which Carolina is great at defending.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Deebo Samuel, SF @ MIN (Consensus Rank: WR4, My Rank: WR3)
Imagine a WR scoring 16 fantasy points on only two targets and a single catch. Well, it happened last week for Deebo because he is just that awesome.
Deebo lined up in the backfield on several plays against Jacksonville and toted the ball 8 times for 79(!) yards plus a touchdown with Elijah Mitchell sidelined. I have a feeling that Mitchell will be out once again this week and they will continue to get Deebo involved in this game as often as possible.
As much as I think SF will be able to dominate the time of possession again, I believe Minnesota’s ability to score quickly on the deep ball may play a role in this game and have the 49ers chasing points. They will throw the ball more than last week I am sure and Deebo will receive more than just the two targets this week. I will put my life savings on that (don’t worry that’s only like $47 and a taco bell gift card).
Oh, and did I mention that Minnesota is giving up the most fantasy points to WRs this season? Hmm, must’ve just slipped my mind.
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN vs PIT (Consensus Rank: WR6, My Rank: WR4)
Since the Bengals played the Steelers back in Week 3, Chase has less than 9 targets in only two games. The #1 WR on an offense facing the terribly scary run defense of the Steelers is normally a sign of good things to come.
The Steelers are in the bottom 10 against the wide receiver position this season in terms of fantasy points given up. Giving up over 1 touchdown per game to the position. Do you wanna take a wild guess at who has the most receiving touchdowns on the Bengals this season? It’s Chase with 8. The next closest WR has 2.
When these two teams met back in Week 3, Chase had two touchdowns. All the guy does is produce. Even when it is a down day, he has only given you less than 13 PPR points one time this season! That type of elite production is nonsense and it will continue this week.
Rob Gronkowski, TB @ IND (Consensus Rank: TE12, My Rank: TE3)
I have loaded up on tight ends against the Colts the last few weeks. Dan Arnold, Dawson Knox. I love both of those guys and both of them outperformed their ranks. But they are nowhere near Gronk’s level.
In his first week back from injury, Gronk received 8 targets on only 60% of the snaps. He didn’t play the 4th quarter at all just like most of the Bucs starters. Indy is one of the hottest teams in the league and Tampa will have a battle on their hands this weekend. The great matchup, plus the fact that I think Brady will not be shy throwing against a bottom 5 passing defense means Gronk is a top 5 tight end this week and I am starting him in multiple leagues as a flex player.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
No Allen Robinson? No problem. Darnell Mooney has EXPLODED the last two weeks for 20+ fantasy points. Last week though, he received 16 targets in a game without ARob. (ARob is doubtful again this week.) That kind of target share is basically unheard of. Yes, he only hauled in 5 of those for catches, but he turned that into 121 yards and a touchdown. Start him on Turkey Day against the Lions.
There was a four-game stretch where Emmanuel Sanders was a startable WR in fantasy this year. Since then, he has only given you one 10 point performance and might even be on waivers in your league. I would go check. The Saints defense has been very tough this year but Stefon Diggs is going to get the Marshon Lattimore shadow, which may leave Sanders as the beneficiary of a Thanksgiving Day feast.
Noah Fant has kinda fallen off the radar a little bit I feel. But he has a chance this week to give you TE1 numbers vs a Chargers team that is averaging 60+ yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesElijah Moore, NYJ @ HOU (Consensus Rank: WR24, My Rank: WR28)
The best thing to ever happen to Elijah Moore was… Joe Flacco? Last week against Miami, Moore received 11 targets and turned that into 8 catches for 141 yards. Miami missed a PBU on what ended up being a 60-yard touchdown for Moore, but he was still dominant beyond that play.
With Zach Wilson back in the lineup though, I wonder how this passing offense will function. He only had one game over 10 fantasy points with Wilson at the helm. With Michael Carter out this week and Corey Davis getting banged up in practice, I am not totally out on Moore. But I would think about other options at WR if you have them, even in a plus matchup against Houston.
Devonta Smith, PHI @ NYG (Consensus Rank: WR22, My Rank: WR33)
Devonta has exploded in the last few weeks after a slow start to the season. However, if we take a look at the box score, a lot of that has to do with touchdowns. Sure he has 60+ yards in four of his last five games, but in only one game does he have more than 70 yards. The most catches he has in a single game during that span is 6. His fantasy production is a little bit wonky right now. But hey points are points.
This week, I am worried that James Bradberry limits him even more. Bradberry hasn’t been completely shutting down WRs but he is limiting what is available. Against an Eagles team that has totally committed to the run, I wonder how much they will force the ball Smith’s way since he hasn’t been forced the ball a lot in the first place.
I’m sorry this week’s edition isn’t as long. I wanted to get it out early because of the three thanksgiving day games and this column takes a lot longer than you would think to put together. Happy holidays to you that celebrate Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
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