Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 17 in the NFL
Well, you’re here. Championship/3rd Place game weekend. Yeah, I added the 3rd place game in there to make some of the people out there that aren’t closers feel better. It’s me… I’m not a closer.
Congrats on making it this far and I wish you luck in a game for all of the marbles. Last week… was not my finest in terms of who was hot and who was not. I did get some nice calls in there but I probably set myself up for failure with as many calls as I made. But I don’t care about that. I am still going to try to give you my best picks for players that you may not be 100% sure of having in your lineup this week.
I hope you have enjoyed reading my column this season and if you have I really would appreciate you letting me know in any capacity. Whether it is a like, retweet, share, text, fax, or carrier pigeon. I do take the time for these articles because I enjoy writing and enjoy fantasy football, but I would be lying if I told you that I didn’t appreciate it when I know someone clicks on the article and learns something or it helps them with a decision. I don’t need a million people reading my article, but you make all this very worthwhile. So I thank you for being here today and with me all season long.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
QUARTERBACKS
I am going to save myself the research but also save you all the headaches. I have a really hard time moving away from the guy that got you to this week. If you REALLY need to pivot, you can check out last week’s article where I talked up Tyler Huntley. I expect he will be the Ravens’ QB again this week and I would fire him up over Trey Lance if you are looking for a streamer. That being said, I’m not benching the QB that got me to the championship 9 times out of 10.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Damien Harris, NE vs JAX (Consensus Rank: RB19, My Rank: RB10)
Not that you probably needed much convincing since you saw him go off for 100 yards and 3 TDs last week, but you should 100% make sure that Damien is in your starting lineup this week, even with Stevenson returning.
From Weeks 11 through 13 (when both Harris and Stevenson were active), Damien Harris scored 36.8 fantasy points and out-snapped Stevenson in two of the three games. Rhamondre only managed 20.9 fantasy points during that stretch and actually out-touched Harris 46-33 in these games. The difference? Harris scored two touchdowns and Stevenson didn’t reach paydirt. When the Patriots get in close, Harris is the guy they normally depend on. I have a weird inkling that they will have a few red zone opportunities against the lowly Jaguars this week.
Elijah Mitchell, SF @ HOU (Consensus Rank: RB25, My Rank: RB16)
Maybe this is all for naught, but if Elijah Mitchell plays I think he has to be in your starting lineup against Houston. The Texans are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to the running back position this season and the most over the last 5 weeks if you only include rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Elijah Mitchell is mainly used as a runner and not as much a pass catcher.
Mitchell logged three limited practices this week and reportedly had no setbacks. He is questionable going into this contest. Earlier in the season, Elijah had an injury that caused him to miss time. In his first week returning from injury (MIN game), he scored 27.8 fantasy points and touched the ball over 20 times. My point in saying this is that if the 49ers believe he is healthy enough to play, they won’t ease him in. Jeff Wilson will be involved. Deebo will probably still get a few carries as well, but when Elijah has been healthy he has been the lead back. I don’t expect that to change even with Wilson and Deebo playing well the last few weeks.
Sony Michel, LAR vs BAL (Consensus Rank: RB15, My Rank: RB9)
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
I told you last week it looked like it was the end of starting Rams running backs this season. Well, Darrell Henderson is now on IR and Cam Akers was only elevated to the 53 man roster so he could get his pension (a very noble thing for the Rams to do but very tricky for up-to-the-second fantasy owners). Sony is once again a must-start RB and I expect to see his normal allotment of 20+ touches in a game that I think the Rams should win.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
I told you Ronald Jones would be a top 10 play last week. Then Ke’Shawn Vaughn scored a 55-yard touchdown and I nearly threw up. Vaughn produced 15 yards on the rest of his 6 touches. That is why I am once again in on Rojo and you should not be panicking. Ronald got 22 total touches compared to 7 for Vaughn and Rojo still got you 15 fantasy points last week. This time around he has the Jets, who are an absolute pushover in run defense. I am fully expecting 100 yards this week.
I’m not sure how or why, but it looks like D’Andre Swift is going to be back into his normal role this week for the Lions. Swift has been out since Thanksgiving with a shoulder injury and it’s a bit confusing as to why the Lions are pushing him to return in a totally lost season but that is Dan Campbell for you. A fighter till the end. I expect Swift to return to his 15+ touches role and possibly more with Goff doubtful to play. If you held on to him, I would rank him in the RB15 area and play him as my RB2.
I’ll include these next three names altogether because they should have an increased workload due to injuries and all should garner flex appeal. Ranking them in order of who I would start… Darrel Williams is looking like he is going to return to RB1 duties in Kansas City with CEH unable to practice at all this week. When Darrel filled this role from Weeks 6-10, he had one game below 10 points but had two 20+ point efforts. Derrick Gore is now slightly in the picture and will no doubt take some of Williams’ work, I still expect Williams to be the lead back and the goal line runner. Boston Scott is not facing the Giants this week (he has scored 8 TDs in 6 career games against them) but may end up being the lead back with Miles Sanders OUT and Jordan Howard listed as questionable. The Eagles have been running rampant on every team they have faced this season and I don’t expect that formula to change in their 2nd matchup with Washington. Scott should expect 15+ touches if Howard misses the game, that volume may be enough to get him into your lineup. Finally, on the other side of the ball, Jaret Patterson is going to be replacing Antonio Gibson this week as Washington’s starting RB. He only has one game this season with over 10 touches so we are in uncharted waters with this guy, but if Washington gets in close they have been more willing to get the RBs involved (5 of their last 8 touchdowns have gone to RBs). If anything, I picked him up in leagues where I am still alive so other people can’t have him and I can pivot if I have a last-minute COVID issue.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesRashaad Penny, SEA vs DET (Consensus Rank: RB13, My Rank: RB23)
Look who is back to 100 yards and a touchdown. “Well, you won’t fool me! I listen to public radio!”
It was a snowy weird day in Seattle last Sunday when the Bears came to town. It is going to be cold again this weekend in the Pacific Northwest and it may rain, but it doesn’t look like we will see any snow. If that is the case, I expect we see the Seahawks’ ineptitude on offense again. Meaning I think they are a bit more willing to throw the ball in this matchup. They only had 3 more passing plays than they did running plays and ran an abysmal 53 plays on offense last week, I don’t expect that against Detroit.
Even with Jared Goff out, I think the Lions are going to keep this game fairly close and even have a chance to win it with their running backs at full strength again. I believe that will keep the Seahawks honest and playing like they need to win the game. Russ even admitted that it may be his last home game in Seattle this past week, I don’t imagine he will let this game run through anyone else’s hands but his own.
I also just really don’t trust Rashaad Penny in any capacity. As much as I believe what I am telling you, there doesn’t ever seem to be a rhyme or reason for when Penny has a good game or not. He is a flex player this week but if I owned him, I couldn’t trot him out there.
D’Onta Foreman, TEN vs MIA (Consensus Rank: RB20, My Rank: RB28)
As a Dolphins fan, I have heard a few times this week, “are you afraid of D’Onta Foreman?” No is the answer and I’m confused as to why I’ve heard it multiple times. The back I am scared of is Dontrel Hilliard. Though for fantasy purposes, I am worried about neither because I can’t predict which one might break a long one or fall into the end zone. They all split carries pretty evenly and you can’t forget Jeremy McNichols plays a part in that timeshare as well. Three different guys getting almost even touches is no bueno for fantasy.
Yes, I know Foreman has either 100 yards or a touchdown in 4 straight games. Yes, I know it is supposed to be a cold game and could possibly even snow. If that happens I have a right to take Foreman off the NOT list. But otherwise, Miami has the #1 run defense in the league over their winning streak of 7 games and is not going to be afraid to stack the box against Tennessee/Tannehill.
This is going to be a low-scoring game, I think we all know that. The Dolphins’ defense matches up very well against this Titans offense that wants to run the ball to open up the passing lanes. I don’t have enough confidence in the matchup to start any Titan besides AJ Brown.
AJ Dillon, GB vs MIN (Consensus Rank: RB23, My Rank: RB27)
I really like AJ Dillon and the change of pace that he brings to the Packers’ offense. I just have a really hard time trusting him in a championship game. In a game where you are needing a solid floor plus a high ceiling, Dillon can only get you the floor.
Over his last 4 games in a timeshare with Aaron Jones, Dillon has never gotten you less than 7 points. But he also hasn’t got you more than 13. It’s so frustrating too because they both run the ball so well but Aaron Rodgers is playing like an MVP and is taking over games by himself. They don’t need to run the ball as much because they are moving the ball so effectively at all levels of the passing game.
For those reasons, I have to recommend sitting AJ this week.
Additional Running Backs I Would Consider Benching:
Michael Carter had a great comeback game against the Jaguars last week. Running for 118 yards on only 16 attempts. I did mention it came against the Jaguars though. This week they are playing the Buccaneers, yeah… I think Carter’s skillset actually matches up very well for this game against Tampa, however, Zach Wilson does not check the ball down to him for those easy completions. He never gets those easy PPR points. For that reason, I am not going to start Carter vs a top 5 rushing defense.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesTyler Boyd, CIN vs KC (Consensus Rank: WR37, My Rank: WR25)
Remember last week how I said Tyler Boyd wasn’t going to catch another long touchdown pass… and then he did? Well, it’s not my fault that the Ravens put a linebacker on him who then decided to not cover him.
Boyd makes the HOT list this week for a few reasons. First, I believe this is going to be another high-scoring contest for the Bengals and they will continue to throw the ball. Second, the outside corners for the Chiefs have actually played well this season but the Chiefs have had an issue covering the slot. They have given up the 6th most points to slot WRs this season, which is where Tyler Boyd lines up most often. Higgins and Chase will still probably be targeted more than Boyd, as they have most of the season, but this game could be an opportunity for another big play.
I still have reservations because without that 50-yard touchdown last week, Tyler only has 2 other catches for 35 yards. That broken play saved his day (though there was another long touchdown he had that was called back due to a flag). His limited target share scares me but the upside of the matchup gives him flex appeal. Play him at your own peril.
Kyle Pitts, ATL @ BUF (Consensus Rank: TE11, My Rank: TE6)
Our Goingfor2 rankers haven’t been paying much attention to the Pro Bowl rookie. Over his last three games, he has 60+ receiving yards in each of them and eclipsed the century mark this past week. Now I know he is playing Buffalo this week, but I keep saying it… their defense hasn’t been elite of late. They are still top 3 at defending the tight end position, but Kyle Pitts isn’t a tight end. He is a slot WR.
More than half (353 of 679) of Kyle’s snaps have come in either slot position. When he is on the field, 67% of the time he is running a route vs blocking. (This information was provided by Rotowire.) We know what he looked like coming out of college. The kid is basically Megatron out there. I don’t think the Bills can match up 1v1 with him so unless he can’t figure out how to beat their zone coverage or Matt Ryan doesn’t have time, I believe this is a good matchup.
Either way, if you made it through the late-season rough patch, keep starting Pitts. I doubt you have a better option anyway.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
I think it has been three weeks in a row that I have mentioned that you should be benching Amari Cooper. I am not changing my stance on that because he scored a touchdown last week. I told you that the reason I don’t like him is that he only works out for you if he scores and I don’t trust him to score with all of the playmakers that Dallas has. That being said… I think he scores this week. Dallas is playing in a monumental game this week for playoff seeding against Arizona. The Cardinals are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs in the last 5 weeks and are even more banged up because they lost Marco Wilson just last week. So not only do I think Amari Cooper has a chance for a big game, but I’d be willing to bet that Michael Gallup makes an impact as well. Since his return in Week 10, the Cowboys WR with the most targets on the team is Michael Gallup with 51.
Van Jefferson has been sporadic, to say the least. His fantasy production is totally based on whether he grabs a long ball or not. It’s a good thing this week then that the Rams are going up against the Ravens. You know them right? The team that just gave up 500 passing yards and 4 TDs to Joe Burrow. The one that is giving up the most points to WRs this year and the 2nd most to QBs. You obviously are starting Cooper Kupp and you know how I feel about OBJ playing with Stafford, but I think if you’re looking to get lucky and you’re desperate that Van Jefferson might just grab a long one in this game. Plus, Tyler Huntley should be playing this week which means that the Ravens offense should be able to put up points too.
You know he isn’t going to score a touchdown (even though the curse is broken) but Jakobi Meyers has quietly been Mac Jones’ favorite target over their last 4 non-blizzard games. Leading the team with 38 targets and the next closest WR being Kendrick Bourne at 21. Just the last 2 weeks combined, Jakobi has amassed 20 targets. Only 12 of those were caught and he only produced 113 yards off those catches, but he has a solid floor of 10 points. With the Jaguars on tap this week, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if New England uses this week to get back on track offensively. That should provide ample opportunities for Jakobi to provide flex-worthy numbers.
A letter to all Gronk owners… I don’t know either. I somehow survived Gronk in multiple leagues over the last two weeks as my flex. Not even as a tight end. I trusted him so much down the back end of the season that he was my flex over guys like DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Boyd, etc. If you are somehow still alive with him, I don’t know how you can start him… but I somehow still am. Listen, the Bucs have the Jets. Tom Brady is going to remind the Jets that he still owns them. Antonio Brown was downgraded to a DNP because of an ankle injury on Thursday. Downgraded after already having a practice is not good. Mike Evans was seen catching passes on Thursday but didn’t seem himself either. I doubt he plays. I don’t know how Brady can avoid throwing it to Gronk 8+ times. He somehow only targeted him twice last week though so what do I know?
If you are looking for a really deep option at TE because you are just lost at the position this week, Brevin Jordan is an interesting name. In 3 of his last 4 healthy games (he was active in Week 15 but didn’t play a snap due to a head injury), he has either a touchdown or 50 receiving yards which was good for above 9 points in each. He doesn’t play a full complement of snaps so there is an inherent risk here. But he is a big-play guy that Davis Mills looks for in the red zone.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesHunter Renfrow, OAK @ IND (Consensus Rank: WR15, My Rank: WR21)
I am very confused. Hunter Renfrow was a golden child. Three straight games with over 100 yards. He had only had 2 such games prior to that in his career! And then Derek Carr just stopped throwing it to him. A combined 8 targets over the last two games. We got bailed out by a touchdown last week at least but he only has six of those on the year, we can’t expect that to happen every week. I assumed that Hunter’s career games were coinciding with Darren Waller being OUT with his injury, but he missed the last two games against Cleveland and Denver as well.
The inconsistency and lack of targets over the last two weeks is very alarming, but not totally enough to just totally bench him. However, the Raiders are traveling to Indy and in the slot is going to be a Pro Bowl corner, Kenny Moore. I expect that Renfrow and he will be seeing a lot of each other. You may not have a better option than to start Renfrow so I understand if he stays in your lineup (he is staying in one of mine because I hate my other options even more), but my expectations are not a top 20 fantasy week.
Terry McLaurin, WFT vs PHI (Consensus Rank: WR25, My Rank: WR31)
Washington is on the outside looking in as far as the NFC playoff picture goes. So what is the best thing to do? Switch up the QB room with 2 weeks to go in the season. It looks like Kyle Allen is going to be the starter for the rest of the way. I don’t know if that is a good or a bad thing for this offense and more specifically Terry McLaurin, but I’m not sure if it can be worse. Terry hasn’t scored above 10 fantasy points since Week 11.
The reason for the hesitation on playing Terry this week is two-fold. First, he is going to get the Darius Slay shadow this week again. In Week 15 when they played, Terry ended up with 4 targets, 2 catches, and 51 yards. 7.1 fantasy points is hardly good enough in your championship game. Secondly and possibly more important, you got to the championship game in spite of Terry this year, not because of him. He started off the year with 4 consecutive 10+ fantasy point outings, including two 25+ point games. Since then, he only has three 10+ point games. You read that right. From Weeks 5-16, Terry has only three 10+ fantasy days.
This offense is untrustworthy with the QB change and Gibson being OUT already, don’t start him.
Mike Gesicki, MIA @ TEN (Consensus Rank: TE12, My Rank: TE16)
I give up on Gesicki for fantasy purposes. He is out there. He is running routes. Tua just isn’t throwing it to him all that much.
He is a competent receiver for Miami but the big plays that had gone to him earlier in the year are now being taken over by Jaylen Waddle. His route tree has changed to being more of a short-yardage threat instead of the intermediate guy he was earlier on and with Fitz last year. Waddle, Parker, and Hollins have been taking advantage of that switch and are actually creating more big plays for Miami than Gesicki was.
I’m sorry if the last two weeks of positive notes on him caused you to start him and suffer. I am actually still quite surprised at his usage.
Additional Pass Catchers I Would Consider Benching:
DJ Moore is up against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints this week. Lattimore has been on and off with shadowing top wide receivers this year but it makes sense that he would follow Moore in this game even though he hasn’t in all of their previous matchups. In fact, per Mike Clay’s WR/CB Matchups, Lattimore has only covered Moore on 38 routes ever. Though, Moore only has one catch on those routes.
Signing off for the last time in 2021…
As for what the new year holds for me in terms of writing, I don’t know. Last year on January 1st I began my journey as a part-time writer. I started with 3 articles a week (yeah I’m a bit of a tryhard) and did that all the way through to Memorial Day. Monday was a recap of the week that was. Wednesday initially was going to be fantasy focused but I didn’t have enough time for that as I quickly was swallowed up in the NFL offseason content. And then Friday was going to be a free day that I could write about anything. Free agency and draft prospect analysis. Team breakdowns. Salary cap through the down year. Trade rumors and everything that was happening.
I really enjoyed it, but it took a lot out of me and was taking me well over 40 hours to get these articles out each week. I don’t plan on doing that again. I don’t have any plan though. Could you see some offseason content from me this year? I’d say the chances are pretty good. But how often and how in-depth remains to be seen.
If there is anything you’d like to see me write about over the offseason, feel free to let me know. If you want to be up to date on whether or not I will be dropping any content, you can follow me on Twitter but honestly, I’m not that good of a follow so don’t bother. In fact, I’m not even gonna relink it. It’s in the intro if you really want to.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
