Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 6 in the NFL
Something I feared might happen at some point from writing these articles was the interaction and advice that I would have to entertain. (Well, I guess I don’t have to entertain it and yea I know it sounds really negative, just keep reading.) I know that is a bit ironic as someone who puts words out into the world, one might assume that I love to talk to people about the things that I love. And I do and Fantasy football is one of those things. But I have also devolved into a very private person over the last few years and don’t really like opening up and talking to people that I am not wholly comfortable with.
A bit of a conundrum then. I give fantasy football advice over the internet, but secretly hope that people don’t engage with me after the fact? Yea it doesn’t make sense. So when I received my first “fan” interaction this week, I was a little timid at first but worked to overcome it. I’ll give you a little bit of a rundown of the conversation.
Twitter Guy: “Hey do you like this trade?” *sends team and offer*
Me: I mean it’s about even.
Twitter Guy: “Well what about this one?”
Me: Sure, I like that one more.
Twitter Guy: “I was thinking that if I did this trade then I could make this trade over here.”
Me: Yeah, that would be good if you could do that.
Twitter Guy: “Ok, so what do you think I should do?”
Me: *Continues to completely break down his team and questions every player on his roster, while also breaking down each trade and why he should or should not do them. Then backing away from my initial opinions and tearing down his roster with trades that he did not even discuss with me.*
Twitter Guy: “I just meant did you think I should do the trade or not…”
Me: Oh…
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The conversation ended on a lighter note and I eventually asked him where he found me. “I just saw you giving out advice on Twitter when I searched for Fantasy Football, so I DM’d you.”
He never read any of my articles or followed me before/after that. LOL. Does this make me a real fantasy analyst now?
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesTrevor Lawrence, JAX vs MIA (London)(Consensus Rank: QB14, My Rank: QB11)
You know how people always talk about how Bill Belichick is a rookie QB’s worst nightmare? How he is 23-6 all-time against them. Well last year, Dolphins fans saw that same theory work for Brian Flores’ defensive unit. Shutting down Herbert for 3 quarters only for him to save his fantasy owners with junk time in the 4th quarter. They were to be feared.
Well… I don’t know where that defense went. I don’t know where that coach went. As a Dolphins fan, I feel lied to. What I was told was going to be our backbone is a loose strand of uncooked spaghetti. The running defense has always been suspect, but I have tolerated it because the passing game is where you win or lose games in today’s NFL. Well…
411 yards for Brady
228 yards for Wentz
386 yards for Carr
That is the last 3 games.
Part of Trevor’s fantasy issue is that he isn’t getting a ton of junk time yardage that some rookie QBs get when they are losing. He only has one 300 yard passing effort. This week, he will get his second.
He is averaging 7 carries per game in the last 3 outings for around 30 yards. The Dolphins are AWFUL at containing QBs on broken plays. I’ll take the over on 30 rushing yards.
And the money maker is the TDs. The Dolphins are 31st in 3rd down defense this year, after being 1st last season. The Jags will sustain drives unless they bury themselves. Gimme the over on the Jags to score 22 points. James Robinson could get 3 TDs in this game, but I have to think Trevor gets in on the party too.
Am I trying to reverse jinx my Dolphins? 100%. Will it work? Doubtful. Would I start Lawrence this week if I lost Russ or Lance? 100%.
Taylor Heinicke, WSH vs KC (Consensus Rank: QB15, My Rank: QB10)
Did you know that since Heinicke became the starter he has games of 23.4, 23.5, and 30.8? Yes, his most recent start was a lowly 12 point game, but we can forgive him for that because he is about to give us another 23+ point effort!
Consider this… the Washington Football team has scored 13 offensive touchdowns through five games. Heinicke is accounting for 9 of those (eight passing, one rushing). So his average is over 2 touchdowns a game (and that includes a zero touchdown effort last week).
Taylor is also giving you a rushing element. At least, 4 points from his legs in three of his four starts. That isn’t a lot, but it helps pad his floor a little more than other QBs around this area like Cousins/Rodgers.
Great, this is all great. Heinicke is a fine fantasy QB. But why should you start him? Because I expect that Washington is going to be chasing points all game. In Mahomes’ two victories this season, he has 9 touchdowns. And it’s not like Washington’s defense has been any good this year either (seriously this and Miami’s defensive issues are totally surprising). Look past the name value and into the numbers on Taylor this week.
NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesDaniel Jones, NYG vs LAR (Consensus Rank: QB21, My Rank: QB25)
I don’t even know if he plays, so let’s start with that. With the information I have of this writing, Daniel Jones is still in the concussion protocol but has been seen doing some on-field work, which is a sign he is progressing through the protocol. So at least he is on track.
But if he plays, the greatest amount of touchdowns the Rams defense has given up to a QB in a single game this year is 2. Brady had 2, Kyler had 2, and Russ/Geno had 2. The way to beat the Rams is to run the ball. Without Saquon, I don’t know if they will be able to do that. But this team is incredibly difficult to beat through the air. Brady is the only QB this year that has thrown for over 300 yards against them. Daniel Jones is not Tom Brady.
If you are hoping to rely on Daniel’s rushing ability (I would be skeptical of him running with the concussion probably in his head), then you should know he only has one game this year with 40 yards or more on the ground. I am a card-carrying Daniel Jones hater, but this week especially is not the week to throw him out there.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
James Robinson, JAX vs MIA (London)(Consensus Rank: RB8, My Rank: RB4)
There are very few things I am good at. But one of them is apparently stacking RBs with their QBs in Hot or Not. Last week, I CRUSHED IT on my call for Baker to have 20+ and Chubb to go off (no he wasn’t top 5… but top 7 is close enough).
This week I am calling the Jacksonville stack. I previously mentioned how the Dolphins are terrible at containing the QB on broken plays. Well, they are also terrible at containing the RB on normal plays. 31st in the league in fantasy points against them, kind of terrible. Peyton Barber rushing for 100 yards, kind of terrible. PEYTON. BARBER.
And you know who isn’t terrible? James Robinson. His last three games? Over 20 points in all of them. Urban Meyer may be a terrible leader of men, but it turns out when he decided to give James Robinson the ball 10+ times good things were happening. Carlos Hyde is still stealing some touches away from Robinson, which is annoying. But even with the 67% snap share, James is being efficient with his touches and more importantly scoring. That is a winning combination.
Oh, and did I forget to mention that when Jacksonville and Miami met last year James Robinson scored 29 fantasy points? TERRIBLE!
Darrell Williams, KC @ WSH (Consensus Rank: RB23, My Rank: RB17)
Are you sensing a theme here? I think points will be scored in the KC/WSH and JAX/MIA game. Not only that, but Darrell Williams is just straight up undervalued here.
No, the Chiefs do not normally let up on the peddle. They will throw it regardless of how much they are up. So we do have to worry about Mahomes and Reid just not handing the ball off. But a few things convince me that Williams will be an RB2 this week.
First, the Chiefs got really banged up against Buffalo. Not only is CEH down for a few weeks, but Tyreek hasn’t been practicing as of this writing. Kelce got a stinger but has been practicing. What does this offense look like without Tyreek? I think there is a chance they are more run-heavy than normal against a bad Washington defense.
Second, Darrell Williams was the goal line back that the Chiefs trusted even when CEH was healthy. Now you have the goal line back receiving 15+ touches per game? That is a recipe for fantasy success. Fire him up if you snagged him on waivers.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
It looks like CMC is going to miss his 3rd game in a row, which means you can trust Chuba Hubbard in your lineup once again. Hubbard is giving the Panthers over 4 yards a carry and got a little more involved in the passing game last week. He has an RB2 floor with RB1 upside if he gets into the end zone.
Damien Williams was placed on the Covid list on Thursday and his availability is now in question. Khalil Herbert would have RB2/flex consideration if Williams does not suit up. He actually out-snapped Damien last week and got 18 touches! Those were all carries, so not as valuable as the receptions Damien got. But if he can take on the bellcow role this week, I love his outlook to continue to take snaps until Montgomery returns.
This is a bit of an unorthodox “cute running back” because he is ranked inside the top 15, but it is something I want to keep an eye on. Jon Gruden misused Josh Jacobs. In his career, his highest snap share was 78% but it normally hovered in the 60s. This year, it hasn’t broken 70%. The reason that is an issue is that he was taken off the field on passing downs where PPR owners make their hay. Jacobs was totally reliant on a TD to pay off because of his usage. What if the interim coach changes that? What if he realizes that Jacobs is a great pass catcher and goal-line back and in between the 20s guy? I know the talent is there, but will the Raiders change their philosophy. I think they just might and Jacobs could be a top 10 play the rest of the season.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesDerrick Henry, TEN vs BUF (Consensus Rank: RB1, My Rank: RB10)
Dare I fade the King? “Friends, Fantasy Football Managers, countrymen (and countrywomen), lend me your ears: I come to bury Henry, not to praise him.” OK maybe not quite that emphatic, Shakespeare.
I probably shouldn’t ever mention burying Derrick Henry. The guy would eat me for a light snack. But I don’t love this matchup and I don’t love this potential game script. The Titans are going to try to keep the time of possession in their favor, thus keeping Josh Allen off the field. I just don’t think the Titans’ defense has any chance of stopping the Bills. The Titans will be forced to throw.
If the Titans refuse to let Tannehill win them the game, they will be running into the 3rd toughest rushing defense in football, based on yards per carry.
Henry is probably going to score a TD. Heck, he might even break a long one because he is always capable. But the numbers don’t suggest a 30+ point effort this week and I am sticking by that.
Latavius Murray, BAL vs LAC (Consensus Rank: RB20, My Rank: RB35)
The matchup is…
The efficiency is…
Latavius was a hot waiver wire pickup when he signed with the Ravens earlier in the season. He has produced a single 10 point effort and only has 2 catches in those 5 games. The amazing thing about those stats. He has scored 3 TOUCHDOWNS and in only 1 of those games did he break 10 points. Do you know how hard it is to score a TD and not break 10 points?
To put it in plain terms, you cannot trust Latavius Murray in your starting lineup. The Chargers are going to score points in this game and when the Ravens were down last week, Devonta Freeman was in the game. DO NOT START HIM!
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesAJ Brown, TEN vs BUF (Consensus Rank: WR25, My Rank: WR17)
This is total blind faith. AJ Brown is too damn talented to not get the ball in a game they will be losing. AJ Brown is too damn talented to be limited in a game that will have playoff/tiebreaker implications. AJ Brown is too damn talented to not have a single game above 50 receiving yards. GET HIM THE BALL AND LET HIM EAT!
AJ was limited last week against the Jags. He played 64% of the snaps and he still received 6 targets, which is good news in my book. On Thursday, he booked a ‘full participation’ designation in practice, which is improved from limited practices all of last week. His health is coming together and the Titans need him in this game. You know Henry is on the Not list, but I’d be lying if I told you they would completely go away from running the ball. The Titans need to still play to their bread-and-butter. If they can have even a little success on the ground, that will set up the play-action where AJ Brown has feasted.
It looks like AJ may get his running mate in Julio Jones back as well. Julio was just barely the second fiddle in targets to AJ (but it did look like they trusted Julio down the field a bit more). However, we really only have a 2 game sample size of them together so I want to see more before I make a conclusion on this pair. In theory, having AJ and Julio on the field should benefit them both because each of them is so dangerous in their own right.
I can’t in good conscience predict that AJ is finally going to break out and have a WR1 game. The Bills have been good on defense this year and are getting pressure without blitzing and letting their secondary feed. But their numbers are a bit inflated playing the Dolphins without Tua for 90% of the game and the Texans with Davis Mills. Neither team scored on the Bills so the QB and WR numbers are skewed. All I will predict is that this is a get-right game for AJ.
Chase Claypool, PIT vs SEA (Consensus Rank: WR27, My Rank: WR21)
With Juju out for the year with an injury, it is time for Claypool to step up in snaps and production. Last year, his numbers were gaudy but it was unsustainable because of his TD production compared to his snaps and touches. This year he has come back down to Earth and just logged his 1st TD this past week, after Juju’s injury.
Would you like to know the target share after Juju was injured Sunday? I’m sure you would.
Najee Harris – 25%
Diontae Johnson – 18.75%
TEs – 12.5%
White + McCloud – 18.75%
James Washington – 0%
Chase Claypool – 25%
It was a weird game and Diontae did not get his normal complement of targets. But Claypool is the #2 Wide Receiver on this team and will fight Najee Harris for the 2nd most targets on the team the rest of the way.
But this blurb is about this week against the Seahawks. The Seahawks, who let Robert Woods get 150 yards on them when he was basically non-existent the first four weeks. The Seahawks, who have allowed 300 passing and one 100 yard receiver every week but once (against the Colts). The Seahawks, that includes Kirk Cousins and the Jimmy G/Trey Lance combo. The Seahawks. Start your WRs against The Seahawks.
Ricky Seals-Jones, WSH vs KC (Consensus Rank: TE14, My Rank: TE8)
If you grabbed Ricky when Logan Thomas went out with an injury, you should be in the clear to start him going forward. This week he gets a Chiefs defense that has been victimized by the TE position.
The Tight End position is always suspect around the TE8-12 range (plus missing Goedert, Thomas, Pitts, Kittle this week), but I have no issue slotting Ricky in there at the top of that group. Especially after his performance last week, grabbing 5 catches on 8 targets. You already know I think Washington will be throwing it a lot, plus Heinecke looks at his TEs in the end zone (3 out of 5 of Heinicke’s red zone touchdowns were to TEs).
He is a worthwhile guy to plug and play, especially over the likes of Henry, Hooper, Conklin.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
Ja’Marr Chase is absolutely balling out with his former college QB, Joe Burrow. But let’s not forget about Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins. Higgins started the year with 2 TDs in two games. Unfortunately, an injury sidelined him for a few weeks and he came back to action in Week Five and grabbed 7 targets. Tee and Ja’Marr play a very similar game so I expect that Higgins may steal a little bit of Ja’Marr’s thunder when he is back to full strength this week against the lowly Lions defense.
I expect Tua will be back under center for Miami in London this week and that is good news for Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins are likely to be without Devante Parker for this game and Will Fuller is on IR. That means the passing game will be down to Waddle (Tua’s college teammate), Geisicki, Gaskin, and Albert Wilson/Preston Williams. This offseason, the Dolphins were pushing the ball down the field and trying to get playmakers in space. Tua has anticipation to be able to do this and Jacoby did not. In Week One, Waddle had his only TD and averaged 15 yards per catch (tied for his highest in a game all season).
I do worry about the snap percentages, but Mo Allie-Cox is a monster and is facing the Texans. They have been highlighted before in this column because they just cannot figure out how to cover TEs. Houston is averaging over 70 yards against them to the position per game. Jack Doyle is getting more snaps on the season, but recently Wentz is looking the former basketball players way more often and has cashed in consecutive 3 catch performances. Now 6 total catches are honestly not enough… but if I said 2 of those were touchdowns, would you feel differently?
The Chargers vs Ravens may be the Tight End Bowl this weekend. Both are alarmingly bad against the Tight End position this year and both Mark Andrews and Jared Cook are turning in nice seasons thus far. Cook is TE15 on the year, which basically means he has had one great game, one decent game, and the rest stunk. This will be another game to pull the average up. Against Cleveland, Cook struggled to make a difference because Herbert and the Chargers needed to score and do it fast. So they looked downfield and got it in their best playmaker’s hands. Cook is more of an RZ threat and 1st down churner. 11 of his 17 catches have been for 1st downs! In a game that I think will be lower scoring than last week, give me Cook to drop 10 points this week.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesDeandre Hopkins, AZ @ CLE (Consensus Rank: WR5, My Rank: WR14)
I can’t believe it has come to this. The death of fantasy superstar Deandre Hopkins. Oh, wait… I am receiving word that he actually is not dead. He is just WR16 and I stopped looking after I got out of the top 12.
What a weird turn of events for what I would say is the best WR in football. He is finally on a good, winning team, and now is the time he isn’t producing WR1 numbers. Only once this season has he give you WR1 numbers. Not only that but he has given you a really bad game too (in a great matchup against Jacksonville)! It just doesn’t make sense.
Hopkins has a 21.6% target share, which is best on the team. Last year his target share was 29.4%. Kyler has better WRs this year like Rondale Moore and AJ Green and he is taking advantage of the variety pack.
The matchup this week doesn’t help things. The Browns have had a pretty stingy defense prior to the Chargers game last week. And we cannot discount that because the Cardinals have a high-flying offense too. They have allowed only two 100-yard games to pass catchers all year. Tyreek Hill and Mike Williams. Not Justin Jefferson or Thielen or Keenan Allen or Kelce or Brandin Cooks. My money says this week is not the week Hopkins breaks the century mark for the first time this season.
Courtland Sutton, DEN vs LV (Consensus Rank: WR18, My Rank: WR27)
I think Courtland Sutton is last year’s DJ Moore. The reasoning? Teddy Bridgewater. You’ll get those coveted 20+ point games and also those 6 point games. The ones that absolutely kill you. And you can’t know when they are coming. Good matchups look great on paper but you’re holding your breath and sweating all game long just hoping that Teddy throws a catchable ball deep to him. Wow… who knew Teddy Bridgewater triggered me so much.
Courtland Sutton is better than his current game logs suggest. He is not an inconsistent player but has a QB at the helm that spreads it around for no good reason and is not consistent enough throwing the deep ball.
The positive news is that the Broncos are throwing the ball more when they are trailing and while I think Denver is a decent team, they aren’t particularly high scoring so there will be some positive game script over the season. But I worry about it this week with the scandal surrounding the Raiders. Vegas could come out and surprise us all and not be phased by what has transpired, but I said surprise for a reason. I think the Broncos win this game and they try to win it on the ground. WR18 is way too rich for my blood and I wouldn’t feel great about him in my flex either.
TJ Hockenson, DET vs CIN (Consensus Rank: TE3, My Rank: TE7)
It’s puzzling. TJ is one of the top five best all-around TEs. So for an offense that throws it to their WR’s at one of the league’s lowest numbers (52.4% is tied for 5th lowest), you would think that TJ would never have a clunker. Yet he has had 15.4 total points in the last three weeks COMBINED. At least in Week Four he had 8 targets and brought in 42 yards on 4 catches. Though 8.2 points are not what you are looking for when you drafted TJ in the 5th round of your draft. At least it wasn’t 3 or 4.2 points like Weeks Three and Five.
The Bengals defense is improved from previous years but I wouldn’t categorize them as scary. However, they have only allowed 1 TD and an average of 30 yards to the TE position so far. That being said, they haven’t faced a TE as good as Hockenson thus far either. I’m starting TJ this week. There is no way you can have him on your bench. But these last few weeks of production have been worrisome.
I hope you all enjoyed this week’s Hot or Not. If you haven’t yet checked it out, I did another article this week on bye weeks and how you can get an advantage over your league mates by just doing a few simple things. It would mean a lot if you checked that out here. Thanks for taking the time out of your day to read my stuff at all, you are appreciated.
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