Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 9 in the NFL
No intro this week. No that doesn’t count as an intro. Stop making me write things @brain.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesKyler Murray, ARI @ SF (Consensus Rank: QB11, My Rank: QB6)
This may surprise you, but the 49ers are actually one of the worst teams defending the QB position in 2021. Saleh’s defense has left the Bay Area (not that it joined him in New Jersey) and without him, they are in the bottom 3 against the quarterback. The main reason is they are struggling to contain the QBs rushing ability. They are the worst team in the NFL, in regards to average rushing yards from the QB, with over 35 yards per game and are averaging 0.6 rushing TDs per game to QBs as well.
You’re looking at me funny because Kyler only scored 11 points against them when they met just a few weeks ago. Didn’t you look at me funny last week when I said the same thing about Josh Allen having a bad 1st game against the Dolphins? The guy I said would be the QB1 of Week 8. Oh yeah, that one turned out well.
Kyler is coming into this game a little banged up with an ankle injury. However, Coach Kingsbury has mentioned that Kyler “doesn’t need to practice to play” and “it will be tough to sit him out” per his press conference on Wednesday. If he is able to go, I don’t think he will be limited in his running, which will be the difference between him being QB11 and QB6. He is considered a game-time decision so keep your eyes open for updates.
No one else is really popping out this week as an under-the-radar guy. I liked Taysom but the Saints are going with Siemian. Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, and Tua Tagovailoa have decent matchups if you’re looking for a fill-in QB this week.
NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Herbert, LAC @ PHI (Consensus Rank: QB6, My Rank: QB10)
Herbert has had a wonderful start to his NFL career. He has been set up with a beautiful offense between his playmakers, line, and coaching structure. He is QB10, but has been disappointing with his consistency, in 2021. He has more weeks below 20 points than above. When the Chargers win, he gets above 20 points so that is some good news since he is going up against a not-so-good Philly team this week. However, Justin has a pattern that is a bit worrisome. Playing in the eastern time zone has not come so easy.
In his career, here are the games he has played in the eastern time zone:
@TB, 2020: 24.0
@MIA, 2020: 21.48 (played bad, garbage time points. yes I’m a salty dolphins fan let me have this.)
@BUF, 2020: 15.44
@WFT, 2021: 13.38
@BAL, 2011: 12.0
So not only is it not great but it has been getting worse over time. The Washington and Baltimore outputs are especially concerning because they have been the far and away worst (Washington) and inconsistent at best (Baltimore) defenses this year.
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Another thing that fares against him this week, the Eagles are downright awful against the run this year, giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. That could be a factor in how the coaches decide to call this game. Possibly turning this into an Austin Ekeler game.
Final piece of advice. Herbert is 1-4 on the East Coast. If you don’t know what that is in reference to, go up and read the paragraph. I promise it won’t hu- *trips, falls, breaks ankle while typing about reading*.
Jordan Love, GB @ KC (Consensus Rank: QB30, My Rank: QB21)
The reason Love has mode the Not list is just one reason. People are considering starting him in normal 10 or 12 team leagues this week. Those people either love rollercoasters, jumping out of planes, and Sonic The Hedgehog OR they like Shadow The Hedgehog. If you know, you know. (I don’t know. Seriously I don’t get the joke. I should probably edit it out but I’m just going to leave it.)
Jordan Love has some things going for him in his first game. First, they are playing the Chiefs, which is good because KC sucks against the pass. Second, he will have Davante Adams, who is one of the best route runners in football, back from COVID this week. Third, he has a cannon for an arm and has multiple options on his team that can run deep. Those are all fantastic.
However, I go back to the pre-draft process on Jordan Love. His issues weren’t about making amazing plays out of nothing or getting chunk gains. He had issues with timing and accuracy. I am sure that LaFleur will try to come up with a game plan that suits Jordan Love’s strengths, but the offense that was tailored to Aaron Rodgers was all about WRs being where they are supposed to be. How quickly can they change the offense? Will they even want to if Rodgers only misses one week? Can the Packers coaching staff love Love enough that he feel’s the love?
Kansas City has not been able to score at will this year and the Packers defense has been above average this year in all categories. I like the Packers to win this game as long as Love doesn’t make boneheaded mistakes. And would you look at this… they happen to have Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on their roster. Now, what a wonderful transition this is into our next segment.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Aaron Jones & AJ Dillon, GB @ KC (Consensus Rank: RB5 & RB30, My Rank: RB4 & RB21)
Wow, I’m so good at this writing thing. I make one transition through my 6th week of doing this. Someone give me a Pulitzer.
Continuing on… this is just something that feels right to me, but Green Bay’s easiest path to victory lies in Aaron Jones’ hands and feet and AJ Dillon’s quads.
It feels like this may be another week for Aaron Jones to get a good amount of targets from check downs and manufactured screens. The Packers did a test drive last week of Jones as their sole feature player and it worked. Adams is in the picture this week, but I expect he will see 20 touches for the second straight week.
The AJ Dillon call is a bit out there I know. He only has two games above 10 fantasy points, 1 touchdown, and four games with more than 10 touches. It’s not a lot of production. But with Rodgers sidelined, how much will MLF trust Jordan Love in key areas? 3rd down? Redzone? Goalline?
Let’s look at Redzone first. The Packers are throwing the ball 58% of the time down there and were more successful throwing it rather than running it in the RZ.
When it comes to 3rd down, the Packers are throwing it 84% of the time, and rightfully so. 3rd down is a passing down in the NFL. However, thus far they have only had a 38% successful pass rate on 3rd down compared to a 64% successful run rate.
Keep in mind, these statistics come from SharpFootball who defines a successful 3rd down play as getting a 1st down, regardless of yardage. So can these stats be a bit skewed because they may only run in short yardage? Sure. But with Rodgers, the Packers are more willing to throw in general. I bet they lean on the backs in this one. Leaning on the backs more means AJ Dillon is more involved.
Finally, the Chiefs are averaging over 140 total yards to running backs per game this season. There is enough to go around between both running backs.
Nick Chubb, CLE @ CIN (Consensus Rank: RB12, My Rank: RB9)
Nicky boy was a little disappointing in his first game back from injury without Kareem Hunt as his backup. The issue with Chubb has always been that if he doesn’t score a touchdown, he isn’t paying off for you. In the three games this season in which he has not reached the end zone, only once has he scored 10 points. It’s tough but the Browns are very reliable with running it when they get in close. 69% (nice) of the time they make it to the red zone they are running it, and with a 55% success rate.
The Bengals have actually been pretty good against running backs this season. Averaging under 4 yards per carry to the position. But they are not doing a great job at stopping them once they get in close. They are averaging almost one touchdown per game to the running back position in 2021. Queue, Nick Chubb.
Also, the last time I wrote about Nick Chubb it resulted in a 24 point outing. That is all.
Jeremy McNichols, TEN @ LAR (Consensus Rank: RB33, My Rank: RB20)
In what looks like a scary matchup on paper, the way to beat the Rams is actually by running the ball. The Rams are giving out the 9th most fantasy points to RBs this season. Additionally, I think the Rams are going to do everything they can to limit Ryan Tannehill’s top targets in AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Thus forcing the Titans to beat them another way in a game that I think the Rams will be able to score plenty on a bad Tennessee defense. That means dump-offs and running the ball.
I am a little worried about Adrian Peterson. This is the perfect type of offense for him where he can just run downhill for 4 quarters. But one week off of not playing football for almost 10 months, I feel like McNichols will get a chance to show what he can do as a bit of a tryout for the rest of the season. Let me be clear, I don’t think McNichols is a great player. At Boise, he was great. Yet he didn’t survive his first training camp with the Bucs as a 5th round rookie and has been bouncing around since landing in Tennessee last year. AP will likely supplant him. But this game, in what feels like could be high scoring for the Rams, McNichols could easily see 20 touches with 5 or 6 of those being catches. Enough for a serviceable flex play at least.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
Don’t look now, but Rex Burkhead quietly led the Texans in snaps and fantasy points last week in their first game without Mark Ingram. Rex only ended up with 49% of the snaps so we aren’t talking anything crazy. But they are going to be playing in a very winnable game against Miami this week. Rex ran the ball well and got work in the Redzone that ended up with him in the endzone. The Texans will be able to score this week and Rex could be a sneaky reason why. If you are starting him, you are truly desperate, but some of us are.
I’m going to start this off with an apology. Kenneth Gainwell was horrid last week. I don’t even know if horrid is a good enough word. Let me google a better word. Unpleasant. Appalling. Revolting. Repulsive. Foul. 13 carries and only 27 yards. Both Boston Scott and Jordan Howard averaged more than 4 yards per carry against the unpleasant, appalling, revolting, repulsive, foul Lions defense. JORDAN HOWARD. HE HASN’T PLAYED FOOTBALL IN A YEAR. Yet… here I am digging my own grave with a smile… again. I apologize to anyone who actually followed that advice. Learn your lesson and don’t trust me again. Anyways… Gainwell will succeed best in passing situations. That is how it has been all season. The Lions couldn’t do anything right last week, but going up against the Chargers this week, the Eagles will need to refocus on the pass and that means opportunities for Gainwell.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesElijah Mitchell, SF vs ARI (Consensus Rank: RB10, My Rank: RB17)
I love Elijah Mitchell for a ‘rest of season’ outlook. This game has some question marks for me though. Mitchell started when they played a few weeks back. He ran for a nice 4.8 yards per carry. The problem that comes along with Mitchell is that he is not featured in the passing game. In fact, the most catches he has gotten this year came in that game against Arizona. It was two catches. Through every other game, he has only two other catches. Three out of his five games, he went untargeted.
So the catch is a big thing for RBs in today’s fantasy landscape. The PPR points help establish a floor if the running back can’t find the end zone or what have you. Mitchell may find the end zone again. They are running more often than they are passing in the Redzone after all. But touchdowns are impossible to predict. So you’ll tell me that Mitchell has a good floor because, in three out of the four games Mitchell finished, he had over 100 yards (their first game against ARI was the outlier). That is a great floor. But will they stick with Mitchell if they are losing to Arizona? (Something I expect to happen.) Will they commit 16-20 rushing attempts to him when Kittle is coming back off of IR? I still am starting him in a league. But I’m nervous and don’t have better options.
Khalil Herbert, CHI @ PIT (Consensus Rank: RB13, My Rank: RB22)
2 for 2 on Herberts being on the Not list. Nice.
Pittsburgh is one of the toughest teams against RBs in 2021. Not only that but Pittsburgh does a really good job of making teams one-dimensional. Last week, they dared a banged-up Baker to beat them. He couldn’t do it. They did the same thing against Buffalo by not letting Josh Allen beat them intermediate or deep by not blitzing and playing zone. I bet their game plan is to let Justin Fields have to beat them.
Herbert had a fantastic two-game stretch against the Bay teams (Green & Tampa) but struggled against the team in the Bay Area last week. His issue is similar to Nick Chubb’s issue. If he doesn’t find the end zone, he normally isn’t getting the targets to supplement that lack of 6 points. He did get 5 catches on 5 targets against Tampa, however, they were down by a billion in that game and Fields had nowhere to go. He will get 2-3 targets per game, but without a touchdown, it is hard to feel confident in him.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesDiontae Johnson, PIT vs CHI (Consensus Rank: WR9, My Rank: WR6)
Ben has an issue. He can only throw it farther than 10 yards downfield once per game. Diontae Johnson is the benefactor because he and the Steelers’ offense is so predicated on the quick pass now.
One. That is how many healthy games Diontae Johnson has less than 10 targets in. However, in that game, he caught a 50-yard touchdown pass so his fantasy outing was saved.
One. That is the number of healthy games Diontae Johnson has with less than 70 receiving yards. However, in that game, he caught a touchdown pass so his fantasy outing was saved.
Are you seeing a pattern? The guy is crazy consistent getting over 70 receiving yards on 10 or more targets every week and if he doesn’t he is scoring a touchdown. Sure touchdowns are fluky but he is involved enough that he is going to get those touchdowns every once in a while.
The downside to Diontae is he doesn’t have many boom games. Only once this season has he gone over 20 points. I’m calling another one this week because I am playing against him in a league that I need a dub. He is also playing against the Bears who are giving up 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game to the WR position and are the 2nd worst defense in average yards per catch. Stats, schmats. Just start the guys that play against me in that league.
Brandin Cooks, HOU @ MIA (Consensus Rank: WR21, My Rank: WR14)
Here is your weekly dose of me ragging on my team. Oh c’mon! Everyone loves to stare at the guy that makes everyone uncomfortable when they are talking shit about themselves. No? Is that just me?
It looks like Brandin Cooks will get the Xavien Howard shadow this week which is good and bad news. The bad news is X has been much better after he has recovered from an injury that was nagging him in the Colts & Jags games. The good news is he and the entire secondary has still been inconsistent and will allow big plays occasionally. Cooks will make his hay there because the Dolphins pass rush can’t get home and will allow Tyrod the time to find him.
The biggest boon for Brandin Cooks is that Tyrod Taylor will be back as the starter this week. That is huge for two reasons. One, the Dolphins are 2-4 against him in his career. Two, in the first two games with Tyrod, Brandin scored 18.2 and 22.8 points. He was targeted 21 times combined in those games. Brandin Cooks needs to be in your lineup this week.
Dan Arnold, JAX @ BUF (Consensus Rank: TE15, My Rank: TE10)
Buffalo is pretty dang good at defending the tight end position this year. And by pretty dang good I mean they are in the top 5 least fantasy points given up to the position. As a whole, they are averaging less than 10 points a game to our beloved unicorns. But Dan Arnold doesn’t care. Dan Arnold is a man possessed and he should be in your starting lineup.
I wrote about this in the waivers column on GoingFor2 this week. The only TE’s that have more targets per game than him since Week 5 are Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, and TJ Hockenson. That’s the entire list. Week 5 was his first game with a full week of practice since he was traded to Jacksonville.
Not only is he getting the looks, but he is turning them into fantasy points. 6-64, 2-27, 8-68. He is leading the team in receiving in garbage time games like last week in Seattle. I expect this to be another garbage time game and I’m just hoping we can see the big man spike it into the turf after a touchdown.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
It looks like Kadarius Toney is good to go coming off his hand injury on Monday Night against the Chiefs. He didn’t play a full complement of snaps last week, even before the hand injury happened. But without Sterling Shephard, I expect Kadarius will be the focal point of the offense once again. I know it has been bad the last few weeks but he is their best option going against a Raiders defense that is middle of the pack defensively.
Hopkins is going to be a game-time decision. AJ Green is already out. This feels like a really good week for Zach Ertz to prove to the Cardinals why they traded for him. Especially if Kyler doesn’t play, backup QBs always need a reliable check down and Ertz will be right where he needs to be to make a play. Kirk and Moore will get all the attention this week as streamers but Ertz is who I feel more comfortable starting, given the nature of the tight end position. Ertz wasn’t around for their first matchup in Week 5.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesDeebo Samuel, SF vs ARI (Consensus Rank: WR4, My Rank: WR11)
He is a man possessed this year and it seems like any time he touches the ball it has touchdown potential. But are the tides turning in San Fran?
Last week against Chicago, Deebo had an insane 6 catches for 171 yards. That marked his fourth 100 yard game of the year. However, he received 9 targets with 82% of the snaps. Brandon Aiyuk received 7 targets with 88% of the snaps. Aiyuk led the team in routes run. Now, I’m not saying Aiyuk has overtaken Deebo or needs to be started. But Aiyuk is back to a full complement of snaps and JimmyG likes him. Jimmy also likes George Kittle, who is returning from IR this week. Deebo is no longer than only viable option.
The only actual analysis I have to give in this article is that Deebo is looking like a prime candidate for regression. Not touchdown-related, but big play-related. Deebo had 0 games where he averaged over 18 yards per catch in 2020 and 4 such games in 2019. In those 2019 games, he had a total of 2, 2, 1, and 5 catches respectively. In 2021, he has 4 such games already. In those games this season, he had a total of 9, 8, 3, and 6 catches respectively. Deebo is capable of making the big play. But four games out of seven this season when he had four in his first two seasons? Plus add-in that he is catching the ball more and averaging those crazy numbers. I think we will have a few clunkers the rest of the way.
Also, in their first matchup Deebo was limited to 3 catches. Something to keep in mind.
DJ Moore, CAR vs NE (Consensus Rank: WR12, My Rank: WR25)
I can’t do it. No, I won’t do it anymore. I refuse to roster DJ Moore after this year. It brings me nothing but pain and I deserve better.
Without Christian McCaffrey, Sam Darnold has lost all direction as a quarterback. The offense has absolutely no rhythm and frankly can only be helped by CMC returning to the field. Christian is going to test out his injury on Saturday to see if he will be good enough to go this week. But Sam Darnold is still dealing with a concussion he got last week, so it may be PJ Walker at the helm. I don’t know if that is a good thing or a bad thing at this point. But I do know that the Patriots always take the team’s best option away. If CMC isn’t playing, DJ Moore is that.
He will still probably get 7 or more targets but that means basically nothing if he can’t turn that into big plays. His highest yardage in a game since Week 4 (when he was a top 5 fantasy WR)… is 73 yards. He is averaging over 9 targets per game in that time. Not. Good. Enough.
Tyler Higbee, LAR vs TEN (Consensus Rank: TE8, My Rank: TE13)
Tennesee’s defense may be a fantasy boon to QBs, RBs, and WRs… but somehow they are actually tough against the TE position. Averaging only 27 yards against per game, they lead the league versus the position.
It’s not that I think Stafford and the Rams couldn’t get Higbee going if they wanted to. They have basically been able to execute their game plan at will this season. But Higbee is the 4th target in this offense behind Kupp, Woods, and either Jefferson or Henderson. Why force it?
Higbee has only reached above 10 fantasy points twice this season, the last time coming in Week 3. There are other tight ends I prefer this week like Dan Arnold and Zach Ertz.
Thanks for reading.
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