Hot Tub Time Machining the Amazing 2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft

In our latest multi-site collaboration we are Hot Tub Time Machining the Amazing 2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft. Twelve fantasy analysts from around the industry each took a draft slot and we went for 2-rounds. Agree? Disagree? Let them know, I linked their Twitter handles in each of their picks.

Round 1

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1.01 WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

Chase checks every single box for an elite dynasty player. Young (just turned 22), supremely athletic (at least 81st percentile in every measurable), advanced metrics darling, tied to an elite QB (happens to be his college teammate), and past production. The reigning offensive rookie of the year steps into his second professional season in hopes of building upon his historic 128/86/1,455/13 receiving line. I personally build dynasty teams around elite WRs as they tend to have a bit more longevity than RBs, but I wouldn’t fight you too much if you decided to take the number two player in this mock. Erik Johnson @FantasyBBQ of GoingFor2

1.02 RB Najee Harris (PIT)

Can’t argue with J. Chase at number one, and he falls no further than this spot if he’s still on the board. That being said, Najee was the #1 position player off the board in a lot of drafts last summer, and he paid that faith in him back with a Top 3 PPR finish at the RB position (300 + rushes, 74 receptions, almost 1500 total yards from scrimmage and 10 total TDs) – AND he did it behind an offensive line that was more thin and flaky than phyllo dough and with Ben Roethlisberger’s career train sputtering through its last season before being permanently stationed in Canton in 5 years or so.

So if THAT’S your opening act, yeah sign me up for the follow-ups – and if the Steelers upgrade the O-Line and/or the QB, all the better, if not…I don’t care – Najee has already proven that he doesn’t need the Steelers to in order to perform extremely well. James “Doc” Ferretti @TFSDoc of GoingFor2

1.03 RB Javonte Williams (DEN)

I was really tempted to take Kyle Pitts here but opted for Javonte instead. We all knew that it would be a timeshare with Melvin Gordon in 2021, but we also got the feeling it would only last a year. Well, it looks like that was exactly the case as Javonte is poised to be unleashed as “the guy” in Denver’s backfield. Depending on who you ask, Javonte is already a top-5 dynasty asset, and getting that at pick #3 in the rookie draft is a smashing success. Williams managed over 200 PPR points in a split backfield as a rookie… the sky is the limit for this man in 2022 in Denver’s new and improved offense. Mikey Ostrowski @LoadedBox of Loaded Box

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1.04 TE Kyle Pitts (ATL)

While it’s tempting to go either Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence, if I’m on the clock I’m having a tough time NOT selecting Kyle Pitts. The freak athlete tight-end out of Florida finished his rookie year with 68 receptions for 1026 yards and one TD. That TD number was extremely low. How low?

Looking at the average targets, receptions, and yards an NFL tight end had per TD last year, Pitts should have had about six to eight TDs. Going into year two as the top target in Atlanta, I expect big things from Pitts. And yes even if Mariota is the Falcons QB. Delanie Walker had some very good seasons with Mariota, and I don’t see why Pitts can’t match or exceed those seasons. Garrett Ball @GarrettBFF of Fantasy Six Pack

1.05 QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

At 1.05 I was between two players but ultimately selected Trevor Lawrence over Jaylen Waddle. Being Superflex, the value of the quarterback is premium and despite Lawrence’s struggles last season I still believe Lawrence has top 12 QB potential. 

It’s hard to think of a situation less ideal for success than the one Lawrence had last season. The Urban Meyer experience was a complete disaster, and many of the Jaguars’ weapons on offense were either injured, misused, or underperformed. Doug Pederson should do wonders for the offense this year. Furthermore, the additions of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, while not earth-shattering, should surround Lawrence with an upgrade in options to throw to. Plus, the return of Travis Etienne will be a familiar target for Lawrence out of the backfield. 

All in all, it’s tough to pass on a Wide Receiver as talented as Waddle, but given the depth of wide receiver and the relatively shallow pool of quality dynasty Quarterbacks, I am riding with Lawrence until further notice. Jay Christensen @JayC_DFF of Brothers of Dynasty Podcast

1.06 WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

Jaylen Waddle’s rookie campaign was overshadowed a bit by the guy taken one pick before him in the draft, Ja’Marr Chase. Nevertheless, Waddle finished his rookie year with 104 receptions on 142 targets and 7 total TDs with subpar QB play. While the QB probably won’t change, Tua is still there, the Dolphins have brought in a head coach that was able to utilize Deebo Samuel in more ways than just the passing game.

Waddle definitely doesn’t have the same stature and cool nickname as Deebo but I imagine we’ll see Waddle in on more rushing plays and jet sweeps than the 2 carries he got in 2021. There is a chance that the targets do come down with Miami bringing in Tyreek Hill via trade but I believe the TD opportunity can increase and Waddle will continue to show why he’s the second-best WR in this class. Jerry Wilke of GoingFor2

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1.07 QB Trey Lance (SF)

I am torn between Lance and Fields here, both are great selections at the number 7 spot in a Superflex league. I have opted for Lance as he appears to have locked down the starter spot in San Francisco next season and he has QB1 potential. Lance is an all-round gifted athlete with a cannon of an arm and his good speed allows him to make an impact running the ball and through the air, everyone loves a dual-threat QB.

Why did I choose Lance over Fields? It’s simple, his weaponry. Lance will have plenty of pass-catching options in San Fran with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle at his disposal whereas Fields’ options right now are a little thin on the ground. Luke Renton @MCRsBlue of BRoto Fantasy Football, 5 Yard Rush, King Fantasy Sports, and The Touchdown.

1.08 RB Elijah Mitchell (SF)

We’re at the part in the draft where there are a good amount of players of approximately equal value. Mitchell, Devonta, Elijah Moore & even Etienne all fall within the same value and tier for me. The difference is Mitchell’s ties to a historically good rushing attack in what is currently one of the best overall RB fields in recent memory.

Yes, Devonta or the other Elijah might outpace this one in career overall points, but finding value from other players is currently far easier at WR than it is RB. Give me the guy tied to success whose ADP is being held down by his draft capital over the guys whose ADP is being propped up by it. Sure, it has a higher probability to backfire, but at 1.08 I’m willing to take more of a gamble than I would higher up in the draft. James Vecchio @whatmoney3000 of Gridiron Rating

1.09 QB Justin Fields (CHI)

Despite Justin Fields only surpassing 18PPG in 3 of his 11 starts (4pt Passing TD scoring), the young QB showed the ability to offer a floor with his rushing prowess, as seen in a 100yd rushing display in week 8. I love the upside prospect of a young QB who should be the focal point of a new regime at 1.09; however, no player in this range comes without risk.

Per a study that you can find on JWBFantasyFootball.com, titled “Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance are Making Me Nervous”, QBs only tend to bounce back at a 20-30% rate after a disappointing start to their career, but the majority of the QBs who did were all Konami code QBs like Justin Fields.

For this reason, I am willing to roll the dice on Fields and give him one more season to show his elite upside. If Justin Fields is given the opportunity to start a full season in 2022, his +/- 6.5 rushing attempts per game (his 2021 average) offers a potential extra 3.8 fantasy points per game. A per-game point differential of 3.8 is the difference between a low-end QB1 and a middling QB2. Justin Fields is coming off the board of Superflex dynasty startups in the mid-3rd round. Sign me up for the “Field” day ride with Justin at redo rookie pick 1.09. Schuyler Malak @TheFFBuffalo of JWB Fantasy Football

1.10 WR Elijah Moore (NYJ)

Elijah Moore looks like a player primed to break out in a big way in 2022. After a slow start to the season and dealing with an injury, Moore was WR 4 weeks 8 through 13 in PPR scoring before being lost for the rest of the season. Now in his second year and with more time to build upon his rapport with Zach Wilson, I’m expecting big things for Moore. Wyatt Bertolone @WyattB_FF of JWB Fantasy Football

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1.11 RB Travis Etienne (JAX)

Etienne was not a prospect I was particularly high on relative to the rest of the dynasty community, but given the allergic reaction displayed by most of that same community to any running back not in his first or second season in the league, I’m of the opinion that Etienne only needs a couple of solid games early in 2022 to see his dynasty value shoot through the roof.

Etienne may well be the best receiver on his team and let’s not forget the Trevor Lawrence Clemson connection that was so ballyhooed on draft day. James Robinson will likely be limited early in the season, paving the way for Etienne to get off to a bit of a hot start. Even if I’m not in love with the player, there’s every chance he returns value on this spot as the dynasty community searches for the next RB to overhype. Nate Nibbelink @nathangn of JWB Fantasy Football

1.12 WR DeVonta Smith (PHI)

While DeVonta Smith’s QB situation is less than ideal, I believe he has the talent to be a solid fantasy WR2. A 64/916/5 line is very much a respectable rookie stat line and we know he has the talent to improve on his first year. His ceiling we saw in college is undoubtedly capped due to poor QB play, but I am of the belief that Hurts is still not the long-term answer. DVS is a QB away from being a top 15 WR asset and the sort of player you love to have in a flex spot. Tyler Orginski @FFTylerO of JWB Fantasy Football

Round 2

2.01 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

This pick is a volume play mixed with a juicy, albeit incredibly small, sample size. St. Brown is the clear number one receiving target for the Detroit Lions. Footballs thrown from Jared Goff aren’t sexy, but let’s not forget Allen Robinson had a top-five fantasy finish with Blake Bortles as his QB. Garbage time fantasy points count just the same as first quarter fantasy points. Erik Johnson @FantasyBBQ of GoingFor2

St. Brown was a championship winner in the 2021 playoffs. He was the WR1 Weeks 15-17 with a ridiculous receiving line of 33/25/292/3. That is a 17-game pace of 187/142/1,655/17. Obviously, that isn’t in the realm of possibility, but it does show he can be elite for fantasy given the right situation. He has the potential to be a Robert Woods-type contributor for the next 10 years. I’ll easily take that value at the 2.01.

2.02 QB Zach Wilson (NYJ)

I have to admit that I wasn’t high on the idea of the new look “Zach Attack” in the big apple after the 2021 draft, and Wilson and the Jets certainly rewarded the skeptics that stayed far away last year, however…I think expecting some growing pains coming in probably made sense considering (and pardon the pun here) the green status of Wilson along with other big offensive pieces for the Jets like fellow rookies Michael Carter and Elijah Moore as well as head coach Robert Saleh.

With a year under their collective belts now and a veteran, TE added to the mix coupled with Wilson’s ability to potentially score fantasy points with his arm and with his legs…I’ll take a shot on picking him here even though I think his floor might be a little lower than the QBs left on board if the J-E-T-S S-U-C-K, but it won’t take much improvement to make him a viable QB2 for your Superflex squad in 2022 with the potential for A LOT more in 2023 and beyond. James “Doc” Ferretti @TFSDoc of GoingFor2

2.03 QB Mac Jones (NE)

Let me make this abundantly clear: I am not a fan of Mac for fantasy. However, given that he was the most successful out of all of the 2021 rookie QBs, I’ll take him here. He’s never going to be a flashy player for fantasy, but his job is safe and will give me a solid-enough QB2 for many years to come. Welcome to the squad Mac, I’m not that excited to have you here, but I’m not that bummed either. Mikey Ostrowski @LoadedBox of Loaded Box

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2.04 WR Rashod Bateman (BAL)

Bateman is not being talked about enough going into 2022. He didn’t have THAT bad of a rookie season. Bateman missed the first five games due to injury but was pretty productive afterward. His per-game stats are not all that much different than guys like Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney, two other 2021 rookies who are getting a lot more hype.

His touchdowns were lacking, but the Ravens had a bit of a patchwork offense, especially after Lamar Jackson went out. With Lamar healthy and Bateman more acquainted with the offense in his second year, I think he has breakout potential coming into 2022. Garrett Ball @GarrettBFF of Fantasy Six Pack

2.05 RB Michael Carter (NYJ)

The star North Carolina Tar Heel running back not named Javonte Williams, Michael Carter had a great rookie season in his own right. At 2.05, Carter being on the board shows how deep this rookie class ended up being. In 2021, Carter emerged as the most fantasy-relevant running back in the New York Jets backfield. Furthermore, Carter was brilliant from Week 7 to Week 10, averaging 19 points per game good for RB6 during that stretch and RB3 in total points. Carter’s work in the receiving game really propelled him, as he caught 22 balls across those four games. 

Overall, I view Carter as a valuable mid to backend RB2 going forward. I’m not sure Carter is suited for the coveted workhorse running back role. However, I can certainly see Carter as a solid asset in fantasy year in and year out as the better half of a running back duo going forward. He flashed plenty of talent in 2021, and if he can continue his role in the passing game I like Carter’s fantasy outlook. Jay Christensen @JayC_DFF of Brothers of Dynasty Podcast

2.06 QB Davis Mills (HOU)

One of two questions was answered this off-season regarding Mills’ future as the Texans starter. We have to wait until April 28th for the other. Mills was arguably the second-best QB from the 2021 class. He threw more TDs than everyone but Mac Jones and had better individual games than those QBs as well, with an arguably worse supporting cast.

The Texans have re-signed Brandin Cooks and signed veteran Marlon Mack while 2nd-year players Brevin Jordan and Nico Collins should take a leap. This is definitely a risky pick in a dynasty league because we just don’t know what the future holds, especially with a new head coach who may want to get “his guy”. The ideal scenario is Mills plays all of 2022.

If he stinks then the Texans will be picking high and can move on in 2023 but if he’s good we can possibly get a few good “bridge” years out of him and maybe he finds a starting gig somewhere if the Texans move on. Jerry Wilke of GoingFor2

2.07 TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT)

I am a big fan of the Muuuuth. At a position that can be a little lacking in depth, I feel that Freiermuth is a solid option. For context, from week 6 onwards he was a solid as he averaged 11.8 points per week, I’m taking that all day long at the dreaded TE position. Personally, I like Trubisky in Pittsburgh as well and I think we will see plenty more action for Freiermuth in 2022 and I’m more than happy with this pickup at 2.07. Luke Renton @MCRsBlue of BRoto Fantasy Football, 5 Yard Rush, King Fantasy Sports, and The Touchdown.

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2.08 WR Rondale Moore (ARI)

At this point in the draft, there are only two realistic picks, Rondale or Toney. Only one of these players is tied to a top QB, or even a mediocre QB, and only one of these players had a WR ahead of him on the depth chart depart. Rondale is far more likely to have an acceptable floor over Toney in 2022, and he may just have the better ceiling too. Easy pick, not really any other choice left on the board. James Vecchio @whatmoney3000 of Gridiron Rating

2.09 WR Kadarius Toney (NYG)

I agree with the Rondale Moore draftee that the only two realistic options left at the 2.08 spot were Rondale or Toney, but the 2.09 should have been for Rondale. Kadarius Toney is a smash pick at this spot. Toney was a player that the consensus subconscious wants to fail, but the entire community had to admit that Toney surpassed our expectations in 2021.

Despite being labeled as a horrible NFL Draft selection, Toney showed dynamite ability with the ball in his hands in limited opportunity. Not many players can drop nearly 200 yards in a game like Toney did at AT&T Stadium versus the Dallas Cowboys last season.

Toney comes with his flaws, like every prospect in this range, dealing with injuries, maturity concerns, and a struggling offense, but I am shooting for the upside of a dynamic playmaking talent who has subpar competition for targets in his wide receiver room and who gets the opportunity to work with Brian Daboll, a coach who helped to elevate dynamic playmakers in the past.

Kadarius Toney was the 20th overall pick in the NFL Draft just one year ago and I am delighted to select him at a similar spot to his rookie draft ADP from a year ago. Welcome to the team Kadarius! Schuyler Malak @TheFFBuffalo of JWB Fantasy Football

2.10 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)

Stevenson ended up carving out a decent role for himself last year with the Patriots as the 1B to Damien Harris and is an interesting player as he’s a capable receiver despite having the body type of a classic between the tackles bruiser. With Damien Harris possibly out the door after 2022 with his contract set to end, Stevenson could become the lead dog of the Patriots’ rushing attack and can provide some flex-worthy weeks this coming season. Wyatt Bertolone @WyattB_FF of JWB Fantasy Football

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2.11 RB Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)

I’m not going to pretend that Gainwell is a terribly exciting player moving forward; there’s a clear tier and fall off above him and Stevenson in this mock for me. But we’ve already seen the Eagles move to a run-heavy approach and Miles Sanders’ role as top dog in that offense doesn’t seem to be written in stone.

There’s a least a solid chance that Gainwell gets 6-8 games of around 15 touches and provides RB2 numbers during that span, and that’s about as good as it gets in this range. I don’t rate Gainwell very highly as a rusher but he certainly can catch the ball and provide some PPR work. Nate Nibbelink @nathangn of JWB Fantasy Football

2.12 RB Khalil Herbert (CHI)

While Herbert does not have a fantasy-relevant stand-alone role, he showed he is more than capable when given the opportunity. I loved the way he looked running the ball when given a chance. With Tarik Cohen out the door, he serves a premier insurance policy to Montgomery. I am also concerned with Montgomery in the long term and with the new regime. Herbert has the chance to be a borderline elite fantasy asset if anything were to happen to Montgomery. Tyler Orginski @FFTylerO of JWB Fantasy Football

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