How To Avoid Running Back Committees In 2015 Fantasy Football
Once upon a time in the NFL, every team had a starting running back, who received the bulk of the carries. Just as with many things in the NFL, this is changing as more and more teams are adopting a committee approach where two or more backs split carries. While this may make a lot of sense for NFL teams, especially if they don’t have a durable stud back, it’s bad for those of us who play fantasy football, whether in a daily or season long format.
Running back committees are death to fantasy line-ups, since fewer touches usually means far fewer fantasy points. Fortunately some teams still run the traditional 3 down back system, or at least have one 2 down RB, who receives the bulk of the carries, even though he might give way on third downs.
The following is a team by team breakdown of RBs to target and those to avoid. As with all my articles, it’s written from a DFS perspective, but the information presented can certainly be used when planning your season long draft strategy. Finally, I’m not going to be talking about the potential for injuries changing these situations. Of course the possibility exists, and you should always bear that in mind, but I believe it’s a mistake to assume injuries before they occur.
GREEN – The featured running back can safely be targeted.
ORANGE – There’s some hope for optimism but there’s also cause for concern. Proceed with caution.
RED – Avoid this situation at all costs.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last season Andre Ellington was the primary RB, but he wore down badly and was eventually injured and placed on IR. At 5’9”/199 lbs he simply isn’t built to take the pounding of 20 carries a game. The Cardinals seem to realize this, they drafted David Johnson in the 3rd round and signed free agent Chris Johnson. This looks to be a situation to avoid.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Steven Jackson is long gone, and the Falcons look like they’re going to turn to a committee of rookie Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman. The problem is that injuries to both have sidelined them for most of the preseason, we have no clarity as to how the carries and playing time will be shared. Add a bad offensive line to the mix and this is an easy situation to avoid.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Last season the Ravens went with journeyman Justin Forsett as their featured back and he responded by nearly doubling his previous season high in carries at the age of 28, and had a fine year. The Ravens seem content to try this again, but at 5’8”/195 lbs is Forsett physically up to it? He seems like a safe target in DFS, but I’d be a little nervous about drafting him in season long.
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BUFFALO BILLS
LeSean McCoy has been a little dinged up in the preseason and is iffy for Week 1 of the regular season. Once he gets healthy though, he’ll be the feature back in Rex Ryan’s run-first offense. Fred Jackson being released further cements McCoy’s position.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Jonathan Stewart looks like he’ll finally get a chance to be a featured back. I expect him to start the season getting a heavy workload with Mike Tolbert also getting some touches. Stewart’s problem is his durability; he always seems to get injured every year. Also, keep an eye on rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, who’s having a fine preseason and should eventually push Stewart for playing time.
CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears have a couple of good, young running backs in Senorise Perry and rookie Jeremy Langford, but neither should seriously push Matt Forte for playing time this season.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
The roles in Cincinnati seem to be well established. Jeremy Hill will be the primary two down back with Giovani Bernard serving as the 3rd down and change of pace RB. Expect to see Hill get a heavy workload this season.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
This situation is a complete and utter mess. The Browns have Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell returning from last season’s committee and they’ve added rookie 3rd round selection Duke Johnson to the mix. The Browns would like Johnson to take over the lead role as Crowell and West are both plodders, but injuries have hampered the rookie’s development in the preseason. There’s absolutely nothing here to recommend.
DALLAS COWBOYS
I was hoping that Joseph Randle would have seized the starting job, but it doesn’t look like this will be the case. Randle will compete with aging plodder Darren McFadden for early down touches, while Lance Dunbar should serve as the 3rd down back. While Randle has the most upside, Dallas looks to be starting the season in a true RBBC.
DENVER BRONCOS
C.J. Anderson will begin the season as the featured RB after a great ending to the 2014 season. Ronnie Hillman has had an outstanding preseason and will serve as the change of pace/3rd down back, while Montee Ball has pretty much played his way out of the rotation.
DETROIT LIONS
This is a situation that should be avoided until the roles play themselves out. Joique Bell, once he gets back from injury, and rookie hype machine Ameer Abdullah look to split early down touches. Meanwhile Theo Riddick will be the 3rd down back’ and Zach Zenner has worked his way into the conversation with a strong preseason.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
While James Starks will occasionally see some change of pace duty carries, as well as some carries during blow outs, Eddie Lacy is firmly entrenched as the Packers featured back.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Alfred Blue figures to be the featured back until perennially injured Arian Foster returns sometime around early October. While Blue is fairly cheap on most DFS sites, keep in mind he only averaged 3.1 ypc last season. Proceed with caution here.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Free agent signee Frank Gore looks to be the early down back and Dan Herron will be the 3rd down back. This could easily devolve into a mess though as age and wear and tear limit Gore’s abilities and rookie 3rd round selection Josh Robinson also projects into the situation.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Rookie TJ Yeldon is the favorite to get most of the carries this season, but his upside is severely limited. Free agent bust Toby Gerhart will be the short yardage/goal line back and converted QB Denard Robinson figures to be the 3rd down back. Add a below average offensive line to the mix and this is easily a situation to avoid.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Jamaal Charles is locked in as the featured back, and Knile Davis is his back-up/change of pace back. Andy Reid tends to limit Charles’ touches though, so rostering Charles can be somewhat frustrating at times.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Lamar Miller had a strong 1000+ yard 2014 season and figures to be the feature back, but probably won’t get a lot of volume, as he only had 216 carries last year and isn’t built to be a bell cow back. Rookie Jay Ajayi and second year RB Damien Williams will also be pushing for touches. Miller is a fairly safe bet for touches, but isn’t as highly rated as many of the other top RBs, as his carries will be limited.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Unless a year away from football and turning 30 cause the wheels to completely come off, the Vikings are the Adrian Peterson show.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Trying to figure out the Patriots backfield is like trying to determine the meaning of life. You’ll spend a lot of time with it, but you’ll never quite figure it out. Don’t do this to yourself.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
While Mark Ingram is expected to dominate early down touches, don’t expect the volume he enjoyed to end last season, which was caused by a perfect storm of injuries, to carry over to this season. Coach Sean Payton loves to rotate running backs and C.J. Spiller was signed in free agency for a reason.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Before Rashad Jennings was injured last year, he was enjoying a nice season. However things have changed in New York this year and Andre Williams now projects as the short yardage back and free agent signee Shane Vereen should slot into the 3rd down role. Jennings should get a majority of the touches here, but expectations aren’t high, since his upside is severely limited.
NEW YORK JETS
For the first time in his career, Chris Ivory is the favorite to dominate early down touches. He’ll give way to Bilal Powell on 3rd down, but is primed to have his best season. At his current draft projection (and salary on DFS sites), he’s a great value.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Latavius Murray is a lock to be the 2 down RB with Roy Helu serving as the 3rd down back. Murray had a strong finish to last season, when he was actually allowed to start, and his been strong this preseason. He’s a very strong 2015 breakout candidate.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles traded Shady McCoy and signed rushing champion DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Murray figures to be the main RB option but after a 400+ touch season, historically he figures to have a bad season. Mathews will syphon some carries and Darren Sproles will be the 3rd down back. Temper expectations for Murray this year.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
After serving his two-game suspension, Le’ Veon Bell will have the backfield to himself. He’s one of the best RB options in fantasy football.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Melvin Gordon was drafted to be the early down back here, but he’s been underwhelming in the preseason. Danny Woodhead figures to be the 3rd down back, while plodder Branden Oliver can be expected to get some touches at Gordon’s expense, especially if he struggles. While Gordon has the most upside, this is an easy situation for me to avoid.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
The 49ers would like to use Carlos Hyde as their two down back and allow Reggie Bush to be the 3rd down/change of pace RB. While this presents a golden opportunity for Hyde, the 49ers offensive line isn’t what it was last season and it’s always difficult to trust a RB that’s never had that role before. Temper expectations.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Marshawn Lynch is the obvious featured back here. However Lynch is 29 years old and he just signed a contract extension, so I can’t see the Seahawks running him into the ground. Expect Christine Michael to have a slightly larger role this season.
ST LOUIS RAMS
Todd Gurley will be eased into the rotation, while Tre Mason should dominate early season touches before eventually giving way to Gurley and forming some sort of committee. I really have no idea how this situation will play itself out, and on a team virtually devoid of offensive talent, I’m fading the whole thing.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
If Doug Martin can replicate his rookie form, it’ll be a boom for his team and his fantasy owners. He’s having a great preseason and expectations have sky rocketed. While he only has to beat out Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims for carries, I’m not on the hype train after two bad years.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Unfortunately a calf injury prevented rookie running back David Cobb from seriously challenging Bishop Sankey for the starting job in the preseason. Still, Sankey and Cobb will probably competing for early down touches and Dexter McCluster locked in as the 3rd down back, the Titans situation has running back by committee written all over it.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Alfred Morris is the starter and will begin the season dominating carries. However Morris’ career rushing average is one yard per carry better with Robert Griffin III and he’s been benched. Rookie Matt Jones has been a beast who runs with violence. Like the rest of Washington’s offense, this is a very fluid situation that should best be avoided.
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