How to Dominate Your 2016 ESPN Fantasy Football Draft

Below, you will find my top 160 rankings written in Black. You will also see ESPN’s rankings on the right side of each player’s name written in Red. Use the chart below to dominate your ESPN draft by determining which players are overvalued and undervalued based on ESPN’s rankings. While drafting, avoid players in Orange or Pink (unless they fall significantly during the draft) and select players in Blue and Green (as long as you do not reach for them).

*Both sets of rankings are as of 8/24/2016.

Green: Undervalued on ESPN by 12 or more spots
Blue: Undervalued on ESPN by 6-11 spots
Black: Appropriately valued on ESPN within 5 spots
Orange: Overvalued on ESPN by 6-11 spots
Pink: Overvalued on ESPN by 12 or more spots

Round 1

1. Antonio Brown – 1
2. Julio Jones – 4
3. Odell Beckham Jr. – 2
4. DeAndre Hopkins – 7
5. Allen Robinson – 15
6. A.J. Green – 13
7. Ezekiel Elliot – 6
8. Todd Gurley – 5
9. Rob Gronkowski – 11
10. David Johnson – 8

I could talk about how much I love Allen Robinson again, but in round 1, I’ll highlight A.J. Green. The Bengals lost about 1/3 of their targets from 2015 and only added a rookie WR and Brandon LaFell (37 catches and 10 drops in 2015). I’m expecting Green to soak up some of those targets and improve on his WR8 finish from last season.

Round 2

11. Adrian Peterson – 3
12. Le’Veon Bell – 12
13. Lamar Miller – 14
14. Dez Bryant – 10
15. Mark Ingram – 18
16. Jamaal Charles – 22
17. Brandon Marshall – 19
18. Keenan Allen – 31
19. Jordy Nelson – 17
20. Sammy Watkins – 24

Keenan Allen only played 8 games last season, but he was on pace for 134 receptions, 1450 yards, and 8 TDs. This stat line would have made him the 8th highest scoring WR in standard leagues, yet ESPN has him as WR16 in their rankings.

Round 3

21. Mike Evans – 23
22. Brandin Cooks – 26
23. Devonta Freeman – 9
24. Demaryius Thomas – 30
25. Alshon Jeffery – 21
26. Eddie Lacy – 20
27. T.Y. Hilton – 36
28. Randall Cobb – 43
29. LeSean McCoy – 25
30. C.J. Anderson – 34

I’m surprised to see ESPN rank Devonta Freeman at 9th overall. I don’t think he’s a complete bust this year, but I doubt he’s a top 10 overall player. Freeman finished 47th in yards per carry among running backs last season and 58th in yards after contact, yet was the RB1 due to an amazing four game stretch (weeks 3-6). If you take away those four games, Freeman’s season looks a lot different. In the other 11 games he played, he only scored 3 rushing TDs and topped 100 rushing yards just once.

Round 4

31. Doug Martin – 16
32. Donte Moncrief – 47
33. Amari Cooper – 30
34. Jeremy Maclin – 42
35. Eric Decker – 44
36. Jordan Reed – 28
37. Thomas Rawls – 27
38. Jarvis Landry – 39
39. Latavius Murray – 55
40. Matt Forte – 40

Doug Martin has had two great seasons and two poor seasons in his four-year NFL career. Last season he was great, finishing as the RB3 in standard scoring leagues. I can’t see Martin finishing 2nd in rushing yards again, and I think Charles Sims has a much larger role. Last season, Martin scored 199.3 fantasy points on 321 touches (.62 fantasy points per touch) and Sims scored 129 fantasy points on just 158 touches (.82 fantasy points per touch).

Round 5

41. Greg Olsen – 48
42. Carlos Hyde – 33
43. Julian Edelman – 37
44. Emmanuel Sanders – 51
45. Jeremy Hill – 41
46. Michael Floyd – 52
47. Kelvin Benjamin – 46
48. Jeremy Langford – 58
49. DeVante Parker – 53
50. Doug Baldwin – 38

Last season, Doug Baldwin scored 14 touchdowns on 78 catches and finished as WR7. My issue with him is 18% of his receptions went for TDs. I expect severe touchdown regression for Baldwin this season. Another concern is Baldwin scored single-digit fantasy points in nine games last season.

Round 6

51. Golden Tate – 45
52. Tyler Lockett – 82
53. Frank Gore – 66
54. Ryan Mathews – 56
55. Jonathan Stewart – 32
56. Aaron Rodgers – 49
57. DeMarco Murray – 57
58. John Brown – 69
59. Danny Woodhead – 65
60. Cam Newton – 35

Outside of Donte Moncrief, Tyler Lockett is my favorite “breakout” candidate. To see Lockett ranked 30 spots lower than I value him means I will own Lockett in each of my ESPN drafts this year. I’d also like to note that Cam Newton is extremely overvalued by ESPN, making him easy to avoid.

Round 7

61. Russell Wilson – 50
62. Jordan Matthews – 70
63. Duke Johnson Jr. – 64
64. Marvin Jones – 79
65. DeAngelo Williams – 73
66. Larry Fitzgerald – 54
67. DeSean Jackson – 71
68. Kevin White – 83
69. Andrew Luck – 60
70. Matt Jones – 61

Marvin Jones is another breakout candidate this season. With Calvin Johnson gone, there are plenty of targets for Jones in the Lions offense.

Round 8

71. Travis Kelce – 90
72. Giovani Bernard – 75
73. Rashad Jennings – 72
74. Melvin Gordon – 63
75. Chris Ivory – 93
76. Arian Foster – 62
77. Josh Gordon – 96
78. Coby Fleener – 91
79. Derrick Henry – 94
80. Drew Brees – 67

Arian Foster’s Achilles injury is a major concern entering 2016. I don’t think it’s likely Foster, at age 30, comes back from such a severe injury and performs like he has in the past. Even if he recovers from the Achilles tear, Foster’s history of soft tissue injuries makes it quite possible he misses even more time throughout the season.

Round 9

81. Tom Brady – 78
82. T.J. Yeldon – 74
83. Delanie Walker – 59
84. Sterling Shepard – 84
85. Corey Coleman – 111
86. Michael Thomas – 113
87. Jay Ajayi – 101
88. Torrey Smith – 85
89. Michael Crabtree – 81
90. Allen Hurns – 80

I’m a fan of Jay Ajayi in this spot simply because I’m not a fan of Foster coming back from injury. If Foster isn’t fully healthy, Ajayi would assume the top running back role in the Dolphins offense. Also, while I think ESPN correctly values Sterling Shepard, I think they are too low on Corey Coleman and Michael Thomas.

Round 10

91. Willie Snead – 97
92. Tyler Eifert – 92
93. Martellus Bennett – 138
94. Stefon Diggs – 86
95. Bilal Powell – 99
96. LeGarrette Blount – 107
97. Justin Forsett – 103
98. Ameer Abdullah – 76
99. Charles Sims – 104
100. Julius Thomas – 136

I’m expecting the Patriots to play a lot of two tight end sets featuring both Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett. In 2011, Gronkowski’s best fantasy season, Aaron Hernandez finished as TE3. I expect the Patriots to try to do something similar with Bennett and Gronkowski this year, and if Gronkowski can’t stay healthy, Bennett becomes even more valuable.

Round 11

101. Gary Barnidge – 108
102. Ben Roethlisberger – 68
103. Carson Palmer – 77
104. Isaiah Crowell – 105
105. Devin Funchess – 95
106. Tevin Coleman – 122
107. Christine Michael – 172
108. Theo Riddick – 102
109. Eli Manning – 87
110. James White – 165

If Thomas Rawls doesn’t recover fully from his ankle injury, Christine Michael could be the running back to own in Seattle. I’m also not convinced Devonta Freeman is a better runner than Tevin Coleman. While not likely, I could see a scenario where Coleman take the early down work while Freeman becomes only the passing-down back.

Round 12

111. James Starks – 106
112. Jerick McKinnon – 125
113. Phillip Dorsett – 116
114. Antonio Gates – 110
115. Zach Ertz – 109
116. Will Fuller – 127
117. Travis Benjamin – 112
118. Zach Miller – 137
119. Chris Hogan – 118
120. Vincent Jackson – 98

Will Fuller is another late-round WR to target. Fuller has played a high percentage of the offensive snaps during the preseason leading me to believe he is the WR2 in the Texans offense. Fuller has great speed, so he could win you a few weeks with a long touchdown reception.

Round 13

121. Devontae Booker – 123
122. DeAndre Washington – 128
123. Kamar Aiken – 119
124. Laquon Treadwell – 167
125. Josh Doctson – 168
126. Tavon Austin – 100
127. Tyler Boyd – 164
128. Bruce Ellington – 120
129. Blake Bortles – 88
130. Philip Rivers – 89

In round 13, I see three rookie receivers who could all be solid WR2s for their team. While it’s possible all three are better real-life players than fantasy players, it only costs 13th round pick to find out if they have fantasy value too.

Round 14

131. Tyrod Taylor – 130
132. Markus Wheaton – 115
133. Rishard Matthews – 121
134. Spencer Ware – 134
135. Ted Ginn Jr. – 200+
136. Sammie Coates – 117
137. Anquan Boldin – 200+
138. Jordan Howard – 173
139. Mike Wallace – 166
140. Mohamed Sanu – 126

Ted Ginn Jr. had 9 drops, only 44 catches and caught less than half of the passes throw his way last season.  He caught a touchdown on almost 1/4 of his receptions, meaning he’s almost certain to see TD regression. Even with all those negatives, he finished the season as the WR24. While I’m not a Ginn fan, he should still be drafted. There will be a few weeks in 2016 where Ginn’s stat line will win you a week. ESPN did not rank Ginn inside their top 200 which means he is a value in your draft.

Round 15

141. Steve Smith Sr. – 114
142. Javorius Allen – 160
143. Darren Sproles – 124
144. Keith Marshall – 200+
145. Mike Gillislee – 200+
146. Paul Perkins – 177
147. C.J. Prosise – 162
148. Wendell Smallwood – 176
149. Charcandrick West – 200
150. Tajae Sharpe – 198

With Dorial Green-Beckham traded to Philadelphia, Tajae Sharpe becomes a late-round WR flier. Sharpe is a good route runner and could see enough playing time to make a fantasy impact this season.

Round 16

151. Dorial Green-Beckham – 181
152. Nelson Agholor – 180
153. Pierre Garcon – 183
154. Kirk Cousins – 132
155. Matthew Stafford – 170
156. Kenneth Dixon – 178
157. Tony Romo – 131
158. Derek Carr – 133
159. Ryan Tannehill – 195
160. Jason Witten – 174

Matthew Stafford is my favorite late-round QB target on ESPN. Stafford finished 2015 as the QB9 despite scoring single digit fantasy points in four of his first eight games. He averaged almost 21 fantasy points per game over his last eight games and threw 2 or more TDs in seven of those games.

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