How to Stream a Defense in Fantasy Football

I posted a Twitter poll earlier this year and asked, “Do you stream defenses each week in fantasy football?” Streaming a defense means the fantasy owner will choose a new defense each week based on matchup rather than keeping the same defense throughout the fantasy season. Here are the results.

Streaming defenses is a popular strategy, and a strategy I use in all of my leagues, including my dynasty leagues.

Most fantasy sites give points to defense and special teams units (D/ST) based on how many points the defense concedes, how many sacks and turnovers it generates, and how many touchdowns it scores. So how can we project each of these statistics to help us choose the best streaming defense?

 

Here’s what I look for when choosing my streaming defense.

Is the team playing at home?

A quick look at the weekly schedule will tell us which teams have home games.

Is the team favored to win the game? (Hopefully, by at least 5 points)

Taking a look at Vegas odds and spreads will provide this answer.* We want a favored team because when the opposing team plays from behind, they throw the ball to try to catch up. Since defenses only record sacks on pass plays, and turnovers are more likely to happen on pass plays, we want our defense to be leading in the fourth quarter.

Does the opposing team have a projected team total of fewer than 20 points?

This will give us a general idea of how many points each defense will give up. For example, in week 1 the Chicago Bears play the Houston Texans. If the Bears have a team total of 19, it means the Texans defense is likely to concede about 19 points.

*If you don’t know where to find Vegas odds, spreads, and team totals, tweet me @fantasybeast15 and I’ll show you where to find it.

Here are a few examples from Week 1 of the 2016 season.

Seahawks (vs. Dolphins)	Yes	No
Home game?	X
Favored by 5 or more?	X
Opposing team totals <20?	X

 

If I complete the chart for all the available teams and two have similar profiles, I’ll look deeper into the spread and team totals. For example, if Team A is projected to give up 19 points, but Team B is projected to give up 14 points, Team B would be the better option in that category even though they both are projected to allow fewer than 20 points. Similarly, if Team A is projected to win by 5, but Team B is projected to win by 10, Team B would be the better option. If both teams still look similar, I’ll look at tiebreakers. I don’t even consider these tiebreakers unless there are multiple teams with very similar profiles based on the first three criteria.

Tiebreakers

Does this team have a pass rush?

A quality pass rush generates sacks, but even when the quarterback gets the pass off, a good pass rush can hurry the QB, coaxing him into making bad decisions, leading to interceptions.

Does the team have a notable kick/punt returner?

While it’s unlikely to happen in a given week, there is still a chance the kick and punt returner could run one back and give our D/ST six points. Consider teams who have guys like Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Lockett, but only as a tiebreaker.

Is the opposing quarterback prone to turnovers, sacks, or both?

While some of this is baked into the spread and the team total, it’s important to note which QBs have a history of carelessness with the ball. For example, Jacksonville and Buffalo both have similar team totals, but Blake Bortles threw 18 INTs last season and was sacked 51 times. Tyrod Taylor only threw 6 INTs and was sacked 15 fewer times than Bortles. When breaking the tie, we would choose the team playing Jacksonville due to a higher chance of turnovers and sacks.

In conclusion, choose D/ST streamers that play at home, are favored to win, and are against a team with a low projected team total. If two teams project similarly, use some of the tiebreakers, and don’t be afraid to start a defense who isn’t ranked highly by your host site!

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