Is Cowboys QB Dak Prescott Set To Finish As A Top-5 Fantasy Signal Caller In 2022?
QB Dak Prescott (DAL)
2021 Stats: 4,449 passing yards, 37 TD, 10 INT; 146 rushing yards, 1 TD
2021 PPR Ranking: QB7
Offseason Changes
-WR changes: Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson out; Jalen Tolbert, James Washington in
Projected Stats: 4,400-4,500 passing yards, 35 touchdown passes; 270 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD
2022 PPR Projected Ranking: QB5
Overall Outlook
Spurred by a career-high 37 touchdown passes, Prescott finished as QB7 in fantasy last year. After being on a record pace for passing yards at the time of his leg injury in 2020, he picked back up very nicely.
Completion percentage leaders inside the Red Zone in 2021 (min. 50 attempts) ⤵️
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) July 1, 2022
Tua Tagovailoa – 66.1%
Dak Prescott – 62.4%
Patrick Mahomes – 62.2%
Teddy Bridgewater – 61.9%
Tom Brady – 61.7%
Mac Jones – 61.3% pic.twitter.com/Ogoe0tLcPj
As could be expected coming off a major leg injury, Prescott didn’t run as much, designed or otherwise, in 2021. His 48 rush attempts are a career-low over a full season, and he only had one score on the ground. He generally didn’t move around as much, as he also dealt with a calf issue for a time. According to Pro Football Focus (h/t to the Dallas Morning News), Prescott’s 99 dropbacks last year with a rollout or a scramble was his lowest number in a full season. He had a 112.1 passer rating on his “on the move” pass attempts last year, so it’s really a matter of his leg being healthy and the reigns being off.
Via RotoWire, again over the full seasons in his career, Prescott’s red zone rushing volume (15 carries) was not noticeably lower last year compared to other campaigns however you break it down (inside the 10-yard line, inside the 5-yard line). But his proficiency was notably worse, with nine carries inside the 10-yard line and five inside-the-5 and that one rushing score overlapping those areas.
It feels simple. Prescott’s injured leg was good enough for him to play last year, and play well. But in terms of movement, and simply being able to push off on short runs around the goal line, it wasn’t all the way there.
My projections might wind up a little low in some areas, but Prescott has a legit path to finishing as a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2022. Via Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP (non-PPR, 12-team leagues), he’s going off the board right now at QB11 in the middle of the seventh round.
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