Is DeWayne McBride “This Year’s Dameon Pierce”?

DeWayne McBride

Alabama-Birmingham Running Back 5’11” 215

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2022 Stats: (rushing) 233 att 1,731 yds 7.4 ypc 19 tds; (receiving) 2 rec 10 yds 5.0 ypr 0 tds

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Pros

DeWayne McBride is a powerful downhill runner who amassed over 3,000 rushing yards and 32 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons at UAB. He has good NFL size, breaks tackles well, and gains yards after contact well. According to PFF, McBride’s yards after contact per attempt numbers in 2021 and 2022 were 4.72 and 4.60, respectively – excellent marks. The latter figure was first overall in this draft class (minimum 150 attempts).

McBride is not a burner but is quick off the line of scrimmage and accelerates well. He often shows good vision and patience, as well as surprisingly good burst and footwork, considering his size. McBride regularly breaks big plays. His PFF breakaway percentage of 52.2% in 2022 was sixth among all FBS running backs and third among the 2023 class (minimum 150 attempts).

From an analytics perspective, McBride checks a lot of boxes. He is 21 and an early declare, and his weight and BMI of 30.0 cross common thresholds for running back size. It’s likely McBride will check the under-4.6 box for his 40 time, though how far below that mark he gets will determine if his speed score hits 100 or above. He showed good development in his production over time, including in his yards per team play, which is all the more impressive considering his lack of receiving usage. His 7.2 career average yards per attempt and max dominator rating of 29% easily check the boxes for those metrics. (calculations per Jay Stein)

Cons

While McBride is an exciting back to watch and could have a solid role in the NFL, he has limitations, to be sure. Despite a surprisingly high PFF elusiveness rating, that elusiveness and athleticism aren’t readily evident on film. McBride will likely be limited to a two-down, power-back role.

Additionally, McBride had almost zero usage in the passing game, limiting his usefulness in our PPR formats. And, of course, McBride is from a Group of Five (G5) school (UAB is in the Sun Belt Conference). The level of competition and hit rate for G5 players are things to be wary of when considering a prospect’s NFL outlook, even if McBride had at least decent showings against Georgia, LSU, and BYU over his college career.

From an analytics perspective, McBride has few concerns, but not none. I alluded to McBride’s lack of receiving usage above, and his receptions share numbers are very low. His career average is 1.0%. For reference, we like to see 9% for running backs, with 13% or above considered excellent. Furthermore, despite his elite-level rushing yardage, his backfield dominator rating (share of the team’s backfield usage) never exceeded 45%, even in his last season. (calculations per Jay Stein) Finally, McBride is expected to have early day three draft capital as a round 4 pick, which does not check the box for rounds 1-3.

Summary

Given McBride’s profile and his expected draft capital in the 2023 NFL Draft, his NFL role — and therefore his fantasy upside — could be limited (but not completely absent). We’re probably looking at a committee back who will spell a lead back and spot start, making him a useful bench piece who will be an occasional flex option for us. But I should note that’s how many of us saw Dameon Pierce heading into the 2022 draft, and he far exceeded expectations. That’s not outside McBride’s range of outcomes.

Both a deep free-agent class and a deep rookie class of running backs will significantly affect the dynasty landscape at the position. It’s tough to say who will eventually need a back like McBride by early day three of the draft. In a way, many teams could use him – even ones not on our current list of “good running back landing spots.”

But based on current team needs and likely draft capital, the Bears (104th, 134th, and 138th overall), Colts (107th, 141st, and 165th), Broncos (109th and 142nd), Panthers (115th, 133rd, and 148th), Saints (116th and 149th), Jaguars (122nd and 128th), Chargers (126th and 159th), Bills (131st and 140th), and Buccaneers (156th) seem like good fits. If the Cowboys (130th, 164th, and 171st) move on from Ezekiel Elliott and keep Tony Pollard, they could also be in the market for a running back like McBride.

Ideal Role: two-down bruiser committee back

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-3rd through 4th round

Player Comp: Elijah Mitchell, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Snoop Conner