Jaylon Smith Released: What Does it Mean for IDP?

The Dallas Cowboys have released former Pro Bowl linebacker (LB) Jaylon Smith after five (and a quarter) seasons with the team.

There has been a slow swelling of support for this from the Cowboys faithful for nearly a year. Smith has looked downright bad since his stellar 2018 campaign. His PFF grades have dropped from 84.1 in 2018, to 70.2 in 2019, and 54.2 in 2020. He has been below-average in run defense and in coverage. That’s not what the team expected after signing him to a five-year, $68.4 million extension in August of 2019.

His fate was sealed with the selections of Micah Parsons and Jabril Cox in the first round and fourth rounds of the 2021 NFL draft. The team also signed Keanu Neal in the offseason.

For the record, fantasy football managers don’t care how bad a player grades as long as the production is there. But NFL teams do care especially when the player in question is supposed to be a cornerstone of the defense.

What does it mean for those of us that play in the superior IDP format?

Despite his poor “real life” play he has been a stud for fantasy football. Smith finished eighth (2018), tenth (2019), and seventh (2020) among LBs in IDP scoring in his three seasons as a full-time starter.

The question is: what team needs him and will give him the snap share needed to reemerge as an IDP stud?

My vote is the Las Vegas Raiders. He can link up with his former defensive coordinator (now defensive line coach) Rod Marinelli and provide an instant boost to a middling LB corps. His coverage grade in 2021 has been outstanding. He is ranked third by PFF with an 82.2 grade on 103 coverage snaps.

The realistic outlook is that he’ll be signed as a depth piece for a contender and provide a fraction of his former IDP production.

Now, let’s talk about what this means for the other LBs on the Dallas roster.

Micah Parsons

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He possesses off-the-charts athleticism and rare positional versatility that will keep him in the NFL for a long time. The bad news for us is that his positional versatility hinders his IDP value. LBs are the RBs of IDP formats. They typically produce the most points because of the nature of the position to accumulate tackles. Tackles are a lot easier to predict than sacks or interceptions.

The good news is he did primarily play LB in Week 4 (97 percent of snaps). If that is a sign of his primary role after the departure of Jaylon Smith then expect him to morph into an IDP superstar this season. For now, I am taking a tempered approach based on the team’s need for him to rush the passer off the edge with the injury to Demarcus Lawrence.

Keanu Neal

He has missed the past two weeks in the COVID protocol; however, he is the biggest benefactor of this news. He saw 77 and 72 percent of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 suggesting he will see the most playing time in nickel and dime defensive schemes (two LBs). He has three seasons in his career with 100+ tackles playing as a hybrid safety/LB. The question has never been talent. He missed the majority of two seasons with injuries. Playing closer to the line of scrimmage with less competition for snaps has me giddy about the possibility of a break-out season once he returns from COVID.

Leighton Vander Esch

His IDP value is going to fluctuate with where Micah Parsons lines up. If Parsons plays primarily at DE then Vander Esch has the opportunity to produce as he did in Week 2. 7 tackles and a sack on 52 percent of defensive snaps. If Parsons is going to back to LB in a nearly full-time role then he will need to be efficient with the 50ish percent of snaps he sees. Either way he is currently the 68th ranked LB and not worth rostering except in deep leagues.

Jabril Cox

I am in love with his talent. I mentioned in a previous article that he could be Darius Leonard-lite as early as 2022. With that being said, he has played four defensive snaps on the season. This news bodes well for his dynasty outlook, but it doesn’t affect his 2021 fantasy finish.

All the best to Jaylon Smith as he begins his new journey with whoever rolls the dice on him. His play may be declining, but he can provide a strong, veteran leadership presence for many locker rooms.

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