Jordan Addison: A Smooth Operator with Day One Impact

Pros

Four-star junior wide receiver Jordan Addison transferred from Pitt, where folks have argued he made Kenny Pickett the prospect he was, to USC for the 2022 season. His overall production numbers dropped, but Lincoln Riley’s offense spreads the ball out a lot. He still had a solid season and remains a top 3 to 5 wide receiver prospect for our dynasty rookie drafts.

Addison has good athleticism and route running technique. He gets open in all three levels of the field using good footwork, acceleration, and subtler movements to manipulate defenders. Addison tracks the ball well, has solid hands, and adjusts well to off-target passes. He also has excellent YAC skills.

After two years of mainly slot usage at Pitt, he lined up on the outside 75.5% of the time at USC (PFF). This could mean he will have some versatility in the NFL.

From an analytics perspective, there is a lot to like about Addison. He squeaks past the height threshold we usually have for wide receivers, and he checks all of the age boxes, including early declare, early breakout age (18.6), and a dominator rating of 20+% year 1 or 2. While his 4.49 40-yard dash time disappointed many in the fantasy community, it easily crossed the standard 4.60 threshold. Addison also checks our boxes for having at least one seasonal dominator rating of 30+% and a career average receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) of 2.00+. (numbers per Jay Stein)

Cons

Addison’s key negatives are his size and physicality, which are of course connected. While some like his physicality, or at least note it improved from 2021 to 202 (e.g., Nate Christian and Matt Hicks), Addison gets pushed off routes, jammed near the line of scrimmage, and boxed out on contested catches. This could limit him more to mainly slot usage than his college versatility would suggest.

Addison has also had some concentration drops that may concern some observers.

From an analytics perspective, Addison’s profile has some flaws. His size mentioned above (which includes a combine weight of 173 and pro day weight of 170) is definitely below the desired threshold and yields a BMI of 24.0. Generally, while BMI matters less for a wide receiver than a running back, and smaller wide receivers are doing well more often in the “new” NFL, a mark below 25.0 is considered a red flag. Addison’s slower-than-expected 40 time helped produce an unimpressive 5.82 RAS (Relative Athletic Score). Finally, while his 2.06 RYPTPA crosses the 2.00 line, it barely does so and is well short of the 2.50 “elite” threshold. (numbers per Jay Stein) .

Summary

Jordan Addison has had a strange pre-draft process. He claims back spasms limited him at the NFL combine, and his USC pro day was impacted by severe weather. USC does not have an indoor facility with a track long enough to run a 40-yard dash, so he was not able to improve on his official combine time.

Despite those circumstances and the dip in his overall production in 2022, Addison remains a highly-regarded, safe-floor 2023 rookie prospect – something of a near-consensus fantasy WR2 in the class.

Addison has “slipped” in NFL Mock Draft Database projections into the late 1st round after consistently being mocked in the middle of that round.

Given team needs and expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense are: the Titans (11th and 41st overall), Texans (12th and 33rd), Patriots (14th), Green Bay (15th), Chargers (21st), Ravens (22nd), Vikings (23rd), and Giants (25th).

If the Seahawks (20th) select Addison as their next Tyler Lockett; if the Jaguars (24th) pick him; or if he goes to any of the teams from 27th to 31st (Bills, Bengals, Saints, Eagles, and Chiefs), an “a lot of mouths to feed” narrative could make him slide a bit in rookie drafts and present us with good value.

Ideal Role: mostly slot, NFL team’s WR2

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid- to late 1st

Player Comp: Devonta Smith, Darnell Mooney, Diontae Johnson