Last Years Fantasy Duds are the Year’s Studs

Last Year’s Fantasy Duds are the Year’s Studs

We’ve seen this time and time again, players that have been given up on or overlooked, and then suddenly they are fantasy studs for the first time — or again in some cases. I took a look at a few players that, at some point, were highly thought of players but have either not lived up to those expectations or had a down year in 2021, and from that list I picked three players that I think can finish 2022 as this year’s surprise stud player.

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WR Allen Robinson (LAR)

Allen Robinson was once thought to be quarterback-proof. After all, his quarterbacks included the likes of Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky, yet he was still able to produce WR1 numbers. Then came 2021, and the combination of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields, coupled with some bad offensive coaching, showed us that Robinson is human.

Now in a new uniform, the question becomes, was last season a product of his quarterbacks, or is Allen Robinson starting to slow down? I believe it’s the former, in fact, I think Robinson will have one of his best seasons in 2022, despite playing second-fiddle to Cooper Kupp.

First off, when Allen Robinson steps onto the field in Week 1 with Matthew Stafford as his quarterback, it will be the first time in his career that he has played with a quarterback as good as Stafford. The Rams were the 10th-most pass-happy team in the league with 607 total attempts, and Stafford was second in the league with 41 touchdown passes. All good things for Robinson’s fantasy value.

Cooper Kupp is obviously still the No. 1 target in LA, and this will be the first time Allen Robinson doesn’t enter the season as the defacto No. 1 wide receiver since his rookie season in 2014 — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Robinson will draw the opposing team’s No. 2 cornerback in most situations, and that bodes well for the soon-to-be 29-year-old.

Robinson is currently being drafted as the WR30 and 71st overall player off the board (via FantasyPros), behind players like his former Bear teammate Darnell Mooney, Bills’ Gabe Davis and Jets Elijah Moore. Those three players should only be higher than Robinson in dynasty leagues, but if we talk strictly for 2022, give me Robinson.

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RB Miles Sanders (PHI)

If you follow me at all, you may know about my love affair with Miles Sanders for 2022. I’ve given the stat a million times, but Miles Sanders is the only player in the last 40 years (because I didn’t go back any further) that has rushed for at least 750 yards, averaged over five yards per carry, but did not have a touchdown — and the Eagles had the most rushing touchdowns in the league. In other words, positive regression is coming.

Last season, the Eagles didn’t find their identity until after mid-season. In five of the first seven games, quarterback Jalen Hurts had over 34 pass attempts, including 48 attempts versus the Chiefs and 39 against Dallas. From Week 8 through the end of the season, Hurts only had one game over 30 attempts, Week 12 against the Giants when he threw it 31 times. During that 10-game run to finish the season, Sanders played in only five games due to injuries, but had 16 or more carries in three of those games, after only having one such game in the first seven weeks.

That was a long-winded way of saying the Eagles realized they couldn’t be a pass-happy team with Hurts under center and they started to run it more often. Unfortunately, for Sanders, he just couldn’t stay on the field enough to take advantage of it, and being injury-prone is why a lot of of people are sleeping on Sanders in 2022, but I’ve always said, you’re only injured until you’re not. Ask Joe Mixon owners about his injury-prone tag last year, or Dalvin Cook owners the last few years, or James Connor owners in 2022.

There’s no guarantee that Sanders will stay healthy, but if he can somehow find a way to stay on the field, I see no way that he doesn’t finish as a strong RB2 this year.

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QB Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

The Tua hate has gone too far. So far, in fact, he is being drafted 117th overall, behind Deshaun Watson — who may have a lengthy suspension– and Trey Lance — who we’ve barely seen on the field. Tua is set up for success in 2022, with the additions of Tyreek Hill, a plethora of running backs that include pass-catching specialist Chase Edmonds, second-year budding superstar Jaylen Waddle and an athletic tight end in Mike Gesicki, I see no reason to think Tua can be a low-end QB1 in 2022.

Everyone wants to talk about Tua’s lack of downfield passing, and it is a concern, but what we don’t know is, was it an offensive scheme that kept Tua throwing dink and dunk passes, or was it all on him — it’s probably somewhere in between. On the plus side of his deep ball, no quarterback with over 200 attempts had a higher completion percentage on passes over 20 yards than Tua. So while he may not have thrown it deep often, when he did, he was the most accurate quarterback doing it.

Speaking of completion percentages, Tua was seventh in the league in overall completion percentage. He broke an NFL record for completion percentage in November and had three games at 80 percent or higher. Through 15 weeks, Tua had the highest completion percentage in the league, then he had an abysmal game against the Titans with an 18-for-38 (47%) performance that really hurt his overall number.

Any way you slice it, if you’re telling me that every time Tua drops backs to pass, there is a 68 percent chance he completes a pass and that there is a high chance that the pass goes to one of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki or Chase Edmonds, I like my odds that something good is going to happen.

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