A Brief Overview of Worlds QF Fantasy Picks
Yesterday, October 11th, 2015, a date which will live in infamy, North America’s Cloud9 was suddenly and heartbreakingly knocked out of Worlds. With TSM and CLG having both been eliminated earlier in the group stages, Cloud9 was NA’s shining star. They were the last North American beacon of hope against Asia’s hordes for tens of thousands of fans.
If you were one of the many fantasy players that drafted C9 for the October 11th daily drafts, do not lose heart. It seemed then a sound and reasonable decision to make. After all, with IG and AHQ putting on a mixed bag of performances, C9 stuck out as the only undefeated team in the group, and with an impressive six-game win streak since the end of the LCS spring split, they had a great positive mindset coming into the matches; something not to be ignored when deciding who to draft. They had even beaten Europe’s Fnatic, albeit in a shaky win. Unfortunately, when the time came, C9 had a bout of impotence, and weren’t able to take home any wins.
C9 taking three losses in a row that day put the hurt into many fans, but that’s no reason to lose heart now. NA may be out, but fantasy League of Legends players are still in. With the quarterfinals coming up later this week, we have yet another opportunity to earn some cash and bragging rights. Below, I’ll go through the upcoming matches, and talk about the smartest picks and some of the match-ups between Top, Jungle, Mid, ADC, and Support, as well as the teams.
Let’s start out with Thursday’s match:
yoe Flash Wolves vs. Origen Gaming
Both teams went 4-2 in their respective groups, but that means a lot more for Origen than it does for the Flash Wolves. The Flash Wolves went 2-0 with the Koo Tigers, but 1-1 in their games with Pain Gaming, the wildcard team hailing from South America, and then 1-1 in their games with CLG. Many believe that their ability to take down the Koo Tigers makes them an extremely good team. Historically, though, the KOO Tigers have been the victim of an upset before. Their loss to Team WE at IEM Katowice was considered by many casters to be the biggest upset in League of Legends History. In fact, yFW still lose to teams like Pain Gaming and CLG. Another way to look at it is that group B’s AHQ, (one of the least favored major teams at Worlds,) has beaten them the last four times the teams have met. The KOO Tigers are a great team with some of the best players at worlds, but they likely have some sort of mental block when it comes to playing against yFW. This doesn’t make yFW the better team.
Origen went 1-1 in their group-stage games with both KT and LGD, an impressive feat by any means. Their only two losses at worlds have come from those games with top-tier teams. With xPeke in the mid lane, I think they’ve got a very good shot at beating yFW.
All Player-Player Breakdowns:
Top: Steak vs. sOAZ – sOAZ has significantly more international experience and a much larger champion pool. His record at worlds might not show it, but in lane, sOAZ excels, even winning the 1v1 Skills Competition at All-Star Shanghai 2013. He really is a decent pick for the toplane, despite what his KDA implies. Steak, on the other hand, should be a last resort for your quarterfinal picks.
Jungle: Karsa vs. Amazing – Although I expect Origen to win this match, I would not recommend drafting Amazing here. Karsa is known for his aggressive early game and plays high-damage champions that can invade well. In his own words, “I like to invade the opponent’s jungle. I prefer to fight in the jungle instead of just farming.” Drafting Karsa wouldn’t be the smartest decision either though. You never want to draft a player from a team you expect will lose unless you have no choice.
Mid: Maple vs. xPeke – Without the interference of junglers, xPeke does have a serious experience advantage in lane. With that said, it’s very much a gamble to draft xPeke, because his team doesn’t rely on him to carry as much as the Flash Wolves rely on Maple; meaning they won’t prioritize letting xPeke take all the kills. Maple has an average KDA of 7.4 at worlds, whereas xPeke’s is 3.6. Drafting either of these players is high-risk, high-reward.
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ADC: NL vs. Niels – Despite Niels being relatively new to the e-sports scene, he performed very well in the EU LCS summer split, and has done well at Worlds. Niels is an extremely dedicated player. When he thinks he isn’t good enough to win against his upcoming opponents, he dedicates full 18-hour days to practicing. His team has the utmost confidence in him, and in the words of Amazing, he’s “A veteran in an amateur’s body.” I think his dedication will pay off in this matchup.(Fun fact: Niels’ peak rank in Korea was Master, while NL never managed to get out of diamond.) NL, (short for Never-Loses,) is a solid and consistent player, but despite his name, he very well may lose his lane and the game. Drafting NL wouldn’t be a good choice here. His team doesn’t prioritize getting him fed, not to mention the fact that at best, he’s no better than Niels. On the other hand, drafting Niels would be a good choice. I don’t expect him to do as well as SKT’s ADC, but he is by all means an option for those that don’t have the salary to draft Bang.
Support: SwordArt vs. Mithy – Neither of these players are the best in the world at their role, but both come damn close to the top and to each other. When a support matchup is this close, there are two things of the utmost relevance to drafting the role:
1) Which support’s ADC is likely to do best?
2) Which duo has the best communication and synergy?
To answer these questions:
1) As we saw earlier, Niels is more likely to perform well in this matchup. (Don’t pick SwordArt.)
2) Niels and Mithy have been playing together since before Niels even joined Origen. Since then, they have played together consistently, and have become closer with each passing day. SwordArt and NL played together until NL was moved to a sub position a few months ago. After numerous team failures with yFW’s replacement ADC, management finally decided to sub NL back in for the deciding game of an important best-of-5 match. The swap saved the Flash Wolves the series, and secured their ticket to Worlds.
Deciding whether or not to draft one of these supports is a personal decision. It’s a gamble for sure, but if you find yourself stuck having to decide between the two, you can now arm yourself with this knowledge. May it earn you many points.
SKT vs. AHQ
This match needs no analyzing. Unfortunately for AHQ, anything other than a complete and total SKT stomp would be a HUGE upset and a miracle for AHQ. This is of course a Best-of-5 set of games, so not even luck could help them here. Unless you have some shady connections deep within the world of Korean e-sports, do yourself and your roster a favor, and don’t draft AHQ. If you’re desperate for an extremely cheap player, go with the Flash Wolves’ Karsa, or any player from yFW for that matter. They all have better chance of doing well than their AHQ counterpart. Be happy if any of your fantasy opponents’ teams contain AHQ; all the better for you.
“But do I draft SKT players?” believe it or not, I wouldn’t recommend drafting too much of SKT. Although it is a safe bet, you’re paying a lot for that safety. Furthermore, when a bo5 series is expected to be a 3-0 stomp, players from either team, in this case SKT, will only have those 3 games to rack up points for your roster. Compared to a 3-2 series, they’re missing out on a two games worth (a huge amount) of points. meanwhile, players from a team that wins 3-2 will have racked up five full games worth of points. In almost every case, this is better for you.
Fnatic vs. EDG
This match should be a great one to watch, and could likely turn out to be the closest game of the quarterfinals. At the Mid-Season-Invitational in Tallahassee, Florida, earlier this year, EDG took down SKT in the final match, and won it all. This was a significant moment in League of Legends history, as it had been a very, very long time since SKT was taken down in a Bo5 series. At Worlds so far, EDG have shown themselves to be a force to be reckoned with, although unable to take down SKT again.
Fnatic, on the other hand, went undefeated in their region in the summer split, and took games off of SKT at MSI as well. Since then, they’ve replaced Steelback with Rekkles in the ADC role. This, the team says, was one of the main reasons they were able to go undefeated in the summer split. When it comes right down to it, EDG are the favorites for this match, but it really could go either way. Betting on either team is much more of a gamble than betting on Origen, KT, or SKT. (An important piece of information: The last time these two teams met was at MSI 2015, and EDG did defeat Fnatic, although this was before the Rekkles swap-in.)
Key Player-Player Breakdowns:
Top: Huni vs. AmazingJ – Both players are top-notch in their region, although Huni did quite literally hold the position of #1 toplaner in the EU LCS summer split. The most important distinction here in my opinion is the champion pool from which the teams allow these players to choose from. Fnatic has shown us Huni’s ability to play multiple carry champions at Worlds these past weeks, including Riven and Yasuo. His KDA reflects this, and it is higher than AmazingJ’s. (3.6 to 2.9) If Fnatic loses the bo5 though, Huni will almost certainly not rack up as many points as AmazingJ.
Mid: PawN vs. Febiven – Again, two formidable forces with formidable records collide. With very similar Worlds KDAs, the differential statistic that sticks out as far as a 1v1 situation goes is that Febiven actually peaked challenger with 830 LP on the Korean server, while PawN only reached 84 LP. With that said, PawN is nicknamed the “God-Slayer” for solo-killing SKT’s Faker, (widely considered the world’s greatest League of Legends player) in lane. Also, he was the mid-laner for Samsung White last year. They won Worlds 2014. When PawN and Febiven faced off last at MSI though, it was a very even lane. If anything, PawN had the upper hand for much of it, though that could be attributed to the Zed vs. LeBlanc match-up. Again, drafting either of these players is a big gamble, but they are prioritized by their teams, so if you choose the player from the winning team, you will get quite a few points.
KT Rolster vs. KOO Tigers
KT Rolster is coming into the quarterfinals 5-1, having beaten LGD and Origen twice, and going 1-1 with TSM. This resume is far more impressive than that of the KOO Tigers, who went 4-2, losing to yFW twice, and having rough games against CLG. Although both teams feature extremely talented players, (specifically KT’s Ssumday, Nagne, and Piccaboo, and KOO’s Smeb, PraY, and Gorilla,) KT seems the stronger seed coming into this match. The last time these teams played a bo5, KT took the victory 3-2. This is another risky game to bet on, although not nearly as risky as Fnatic vs. EDG.
Key Player-Player Breakdown:
Top: Ssumday vs. Smeb – Ssumday has a worlds KDA of over 10. He’s considered a dominating toplaner, often killing the enemy, even from a disadvantaged position. Widely considered the best toplaner in Korea, he got a pentakill in the 2015 LCK summer split with Riven. Believe it or not, Smeb also scored a pentakill with Riven in the 2015 LCK summer split. It gets better though. Ssumday and Smeb were back-to-back leaders in ‘highest toplane KDA’ in the LCK summer and spring splits. While this should be a truly awesome lane to watch, I would absolutely refrain from drafting either player.
Good Luck!
The quarterfinal games should all be a joy to watch. They will likely, however, be some of the closest games we’ve yet seen at worlds. While this does make fantasy drafting a nightmare, it also makes it a great challenge, and one of the most entertaining puzzles in the world. I hope this summary has offered you some good insight into the players and their opponents this week, and that you and I will both make some cash while enjoying some good old-fashioned League of Legends competition.
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