Marvin Mims: A Value Wide Receiver in Your Rookie Drafts

Pros

Marvin Mims is an exciting wide receiver prospect who I think could end up being a big value in rookie drafts based on current trends. He is not “just a slot guy” or “just a deep threat.”

Mims was a 4-star recruit out of high school and produced well for a freshman in 2020. He continued to grow as a player and prospect for the next two years. Mims performed well both before and after Caleb Williams was his quarterback and after coach Lincoln Reilly (and Williams) left Oklahoma. That’s a very good sign, as is versatility. Mims played a lot in the slot in 2021 with Williams but less so in 2020 and 2022.

While Mims may not be pure burner, he has very good play speed and explosiveness and can beat defenses deep. He uses good footwork and acceleration, as well as subtle manipulation of defenders and handwork (once in his routes) to get open. Mims tracks the ball well and has good hands. After the catch, Mims can be a real weapon. He sees the field well and is both fast and elusive as a runner. Mims is first overall in the 2023 wide receiver class with a career 19.2 yards per catch, and his 7.4 yards after catch per reception is second overall.

Mims stands out even further because of his physicality and “my ball” mentality, especially for a player his size in a class with many smaller wide receivers. He is also a very good blocker, which doesn’t mean much for our fantasy purposes, but coaches will love it, and it will get him on the field.

From an analytics perspective, the results for Mims are mixed but show many positives. He checks all the age boxes, including being an early declare and a breakout age under 20. Mims’ current projection as a third-round NFL selection checks the draft capital box, and will surely break the 4.6 40-time threshold. Adjusted for age/experience, Mims’ best season regarding production metrics was his freshman year. While you would want to see better growth over time, he hit a dominator rating of 24% in year 1, which checks a box for 20+% in year 1 or 2; his career receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) exceeds the. 2.00 threshold at 2.03; and his best season’s EPA/play (year 2) was 1.56, well above the 1.00 threshold we like to see for a best season. (calculations per Jay Stein)

Cons

While the NFL is changing and, for a number of reasons, smaller wide receivers are succeeding more than they used to, receivers of Mims’ size are still often disadvantaged absent a very good situation and/or the presence of an alpha-size teammate. So even though Mims “plays bigger than his size,” it is still an overall concern; it has to be. More specifically, his wingspan is also limited.

Also, while scouts like his handwork and separation in his routes, they also point out that he saw little press coverage and gained a lot of free releases. Therefore, it remains to be seen how well Mims will do getting off the line of scrimmage in the NFL and how refined his route running can be. We hope he’s enough of an athlete and tough player to develop in these areas.

From an analytics perspective, there are some flaws in Mims’ profile. Besides not hitting size thresholds, the decline in his age/experience-adjusted production and never hitting a dominator rating of 30+% (max was 27%) are his main shortcomings. Given his smaller size, he will have to really impress in the 40-yard dash at the combine in order to hit the speed scores and relative athletic score (RAS) we want to see. Mims may not have that type of top-end speed.

Summary

Marvin Mims is an underrated wide receiever prospect in a class that is deeper at the position than many folks thin. He should secure day 2 draft capital in the 2023 NFL Draft, with maybe slipping into the early 4th round as a worst case scenario. Mims can be a legitimate weapon. I would prefer to see him land on a team that already has an alpha-type wide receiver and/or has a very high pass rate. Mims will not be a team’s WR1.

I think Mims can be a WR3 on your dynasty roster with WR2 upside. I see him as a “discount Josh Downs” — 75% the player at probably 50% the cost. Downs is going in the late 1st/early 2nd in most mocks, whereas the soonest I see Mims taken is the early 3rd round.

Almost every NFL team could use a weapon like Mims. Based on team need and likely draft capital, the Bears (65th and 104th overall), Texans (66th, 74th, and 105th), Raiders (71st and 110th) Saints (72nd), Titans (73rd), Falcons (76th and 11th), Patriots (77th and 108th), Chargers (86th), Vikings (88th), and Giants (90th and 101st) seem like good fits. If the Caridnals (77th, 97th, and 108th) trade DeAndre Hopkins and/or the Bengals (93rd) move on from Tyler Boyd or Trade Tee Higgins, they could be in the market for a wide receiver, too.

Ideal Role: NFL team’s WR2

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 3rd round

Player Comp: Curtis Samuel, Tyler Lockett, smaller Christian Kirk, Darnell Mooney, Brandin Cooks