Meet Jayden Reed: A Recent Riser at Receiver

Jayden Reed

Michigan St. – Wide Receiver – 5’11”, 191 lbs.

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2022 Stats: 55 rec 636 yds 11.6 ypr 5 td

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Pros

Michigan State wide receiver Jayden Reed turned heads during the Senior Bowl process by winning routes and being clocked running 20.05 MPH. He also did well at the NFL Combine and may have made himself a day 2 selection in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Reed was a 3-star recruit and broke out in his freshman year at Western Michigan before transferring to Michigan State. Reed is a quick, dynamic, big-play receiver. He is a vertical threat who also has good agility. He tracks and adjusts to the ball well. Reed is a good route runner and holds his catches through contact.

At almost 5’11” and 191 pounds, he is not quite as small as a number of other 2023 wide receiver prospects, such as Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs, and Marvin Mims. Therefore, Reed’s size/athleticism combo is attractive, though neither side of that combo is superlative.

Froman analytics perspective, we can find some positives for Reed. His breakout age of 18.4 and all the production metrics of that freshman season check boxes for us. Therefore, Reed also checks the box for a dominator rating of 20%+ in year 1 or 2. Additionally, his year 3 dominator rating of 34% checks our 30%+ at least once box, and his year 4 EPA/play of .86 met the threshold for a player with that experience level. His receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) in year 4 were 2.56, a very good number. Finally, Reed’s 40 time of 4.45 easily cleared the 4.6 threshold. (numbers per Jay Stein)

Cons

After a very good 2021 junior season (59-1,026-17.4-10), Reed struggled through an early season injury and saw his overall production dip. Production dips as a player advances in college are not encouraging. And, as Matt Hicks flagged for me, some of that production dip is attributable to a slightly concerning split of receiving work with freshman Keon Coleman, who actually outproduced Reed. Coleman had four more targets, three more receptions, 162 more yards, and two more touchdowns in only one more game than Reed, and, for what it’s worth, had higher PFF grades on Offense, Receiving, Drops, and Fumbles.

Also, while Reed has a good few pounds on some of his counterparts, he does have a thin frame, which has allowed physical defensive backs some advantage on him at times. I will mention the age concern below.

From an analytics perspective, Reed has some blemishes in his profile. He is a five-year player, non-early declare, who will turn 23 on day 2 of the draft. Reed’s 40 time probably won’t raise his speed scores high enough to check that box fully. His career average RYPTPA of 1.94 is below the 2.00 threshold and well below the 2.50 “excellent” threshold. This is reflected in the overall subpar finishes that Reed hit on standard production metrics when adjusted for age/experience, which tracks with the aforementioned Keon Coleman factor. (numbers per Jay Stein)

Summary

Jayden Reed has experience both in the slot and as an outside receiver and can potentially be a big play threat in the NFL. However, he may lack the pure speed and/or the frame to win as many routes as he’ll need to for him to be a real weapon. While some of the Senior Bowl buzz has died down, and NFL Mock Draft Database projects Reed as a round 4 pick, Reed still has a chance to be selected late on day 2, especially because he can contribute as a returner.

If that were to happen, I think that would inflate his rookie draft ADP to a spot where he is no longer a value play. I see Reed as a WR 3-4 on your dynasty team that will have some WR2 weeks. That’s pretty easy to find, so I’m probably not spending anything above a 3rd round pick on him.

Given team needs, the thin free agent wide receiver class, and Reed’s expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense are: the Jets (113th overall), Vikings (88th and 120th), Giants (90th, 101st, and 129th), Cardinals (97th and 106th), Texans (105th), Raiders (110th), and Rams (137th).

Ideal Role: an NFL team’s WR 2-3 as a vertical target

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 3rd to early 4th round

Player Comp: Greg Ward with more speed, a smaller and faster Kendrick Bourne