The Daily Dinger

By: RJ3

Wow! Last night’s slate was certainly interesting to say the least! A few aces got battered early, and if you played Lopez – you probably cashed. Today we have a juicy 12 game slate, and I’m here to break it down for you. Let’s dive right in.

Top Pitcher Play

Caleb Smith vs TAM – $10,700 on Fanduel

Over 42.2 IP so far this year, Smith is averaging 11.81 K/9 with a 1.05 HR/9. Leaving 90.3% LOB and only allowing a 13.2% HR/FB rate. Looking at Smith’s velocity I see it is down just a touch, but his movement on his FB is absolutely outrageous. He is a three-pitch guy (FB-47.5%, CH-19.8%, SL-32.6%). His CH comes only 19.8% of the time but has a 40% whiff rate! Smith is currently 1^st in O-Swing%, 1^st in Z-Contact% and 1^st in SwStr%. Smith currently holds a 34% K rate and is facing a Rays team who K’s 27.7% of the time as a team. The Rays also hold a team average .180 ISO this season and only have a .330 wOBA. I’ll take that matchup 100% of the time.

Other Plays: Chris Sale, Charlie Morton

Top Infield Plays

Alex Bregman 3B vs DET – $4,300

The Stros are still in DET, and the Tigers pitching is still awful. We saw what they did to Boyd yesterday. Ryan Carpenter (L) has only pitched one game this season with a 5 inning outing against LAA. 8 hits, 1 BB, 2 SO, 6 ER. On his career, he is allowing 3.29 HR/9 and has a 4.88 SIERA. The Stros have a 6.2 IRT this season, and they’re going to absolutely embarrass Carpenter today at home. Bregman hasn’t been stellar this year vs lefties, but looking at his career stats, I’m not at all worried about this play. He holds a .384 wOBA, .234 ISO, and has a 34% HH rate against them. With all of the runs projected to come in this game, lock him in.

Adalberto Mondesi SS vs TEX – $4,200

Here we have an ideal matchup. Mondesi vs Shelby Miller. This season Miller has a 6.45 SIERA, allowing 1.63 HR9, having only a 13.9 K%, and owns a massive 6.70 xFIP. Mondesi this season has a .241 ISO, .347 wOBA, and is hitting the ball hard 41.8 % of the time while Miller is being hit hard 46.3% of the time. Adalberto goes into the 12th best hitters park today and surely will bring decent value in this matchup against a subprime Miller. The Royals are projected 5.15 runs, and Mondesi is currently projected to bat 2nd.

Other Plays: Ronny Rodriguez, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, Robinson Cano.

Top Outfield Plays

Khris Davis OF vs SEA – $3,600

Last night Davis looked like his usual self. The guy hits 2 dingers, and his price drops $400. This is a value I will take advantage of – over and over again. This season Davis has a .348 wOBA, .279 ISO, and is hitting the ball hard 44% of the time. Today he goes to T-Mobile Park to face Mike Leake who is currently surrendering 2.09 HR/9 and has a SIERA of 4.53. This is a direct reflection of his HH% being 42.9 and his fastball being absolutely awful with no movement. Leake has never been anything extraordinary, and Krush is going to expose that tonight.

George Springer OF vs DET – $4,700

Springer Dinger – learn the phrase, love the phrase. This guy has been an entirely different entity this year. .329 ISO, 15 HRs, .433 wOBA, 50.4 HH%. Need I say anymore? If yes – he faces Ryan Carpenter tonight. I am unfortunately a Tigers fan, and I know tonight is going to be ugly.

Other OF Plays: Alex Gordon, David Peralta, Ketel Marte

Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight everyone!

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