MLB DFS DraftKings GPP Lineup Advice: Friday 7/6/18

With another big 14-game slate set in the MLB tonight, there are a lot of pitchers and hitters to look at for GPP’s on DraftKings.
At the top, Chris Sale is a whopping $14,000. At a glance, it is a massive price tag and easy to overlook. He is, however, traveling to a fantastic pitchers park and will toe the rubber against one of the worst hitting teams. Sale is always in consideration when he takes the mound.
On the hitter’s side, there are no Coors Field hitters to pay up for, but both the Yankees and Red Sox grade out as among the best options. As we know, these guys are not cheap.
Let’s dive into this big slate and break down some of the top GPP options for the DFS main-slate.

Pithers

Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): $11,900 vs. CWS 
Of the top tier, Lance McCullers Jr. comes in as one of my favorites. Although Chris Sale will likely outscore the Astros starter, McCullers could come very close to hitting similar raw points, at nearly a $2,000 discount. We just witnessed teammate Justin Verlander mow-down this White Sox team last night. McCullers is not Verlander, but he does have incredible breaking stuff where he generates a 13% swinging strike rate. This has led to a 25.7% strikeout rate on the season. The matchup cannot get much better for the starter and the win is almost guaranteed. He will carry hefty ownership percentage, but McCullers is a starter with one of the highest ceilings on the board.

Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): $10,500 @ MIL 
As an underdog, in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Mike Foltynewicz should go completely overlooked. The Braves starter is having a breakout season with a massive 10.82 K/9 strikeout rate along with an incredible 2.02 ERA. Nobody uses ERA anymore, but that is an amazing number. He has increased his usage of the wipeout slider which has led to more strikeouts, a higher soft-contact rate, and a much lower HR/9 rate. The Brewers have a lot of good hitters. There is literally not enough fielding positions to have all of their hitters in the lineup each night. That being said, Milwaukee has struck out a lot. Over the course of the season, they have the sixth highest K rate, while over the last 14 days, they have jumped up to 26.4%, which is second highest in the MLB. If Folty can keep the power-hitters at bay by reducing the hard contact, he will get his strikeouts and have a great outing.

Bartolo Colon (TEX): $5,200 @ DET 
Yes, Bartolo Colon sucks. He gives up home runs and is 45 years old. I would not recommend playing Colon on your main lineup or in single-entry GPP’s. There is a ton of risk attached to the veteran. That being said, this Tigers team is very weak and Colon is the perfect pitcher to face this team. The Tigers are young and inexperienced, for the most part. Colon throws his fastball 80% of the time. He works fast and throws strikes. There is little deception and guessing for hitters. But when Colon is hitting his spots, he can get the better of the young, free-swinging Tigers. If Bartolo Colon can hit 15-20 DraftKings points, you would get 3-4X value which would be huge! On a night with few salary-saving starting pitchers, Colon is not the craziest option.

Hitting Stacks

New York Yankees 
Even though the Yankees have the fifth highest implied run total, this team has incredible power in a fantastic spot. Not only is the ballpark very hitter-friendly, the Blue Jays have struggled to get good outings from their entire pitching staff (outside of J.A. Happ). Sam Gaviglio is by no means a terrible pitcher, but he does struggle to right-handed hitters and can give up the long ball. He does not have much velocity (fastball is registering at 89.4 mph) and I have the feeling the best offensive team in the league can put up runs. The Jays bullpen has also been quite bad. They own a 1.30 HR/9 with a 4.29 xFIP. If the Yankees can come in at a lower-than-usual ownership percentage, they are definitely worth a look.

Washington Nationals
The Nats have a 5.35 implied run total this evening against Dan Straily. This could be a trap spot because Straily does have the skill and could get the better of this team. However, the Nats are coming off a massive 14-run performance and can throw out five, very good, lefties. Straily owns a .360 wOBA to left-handed hitters, where he has given up 21 walks (vs 8 to righties), and six home runs.

Boston Red Sox 
Jason Hamel will take the mound for the Royals this evening against the Red Sox. Not only that, but the leagues worst bullpen will back up Jason Hamel when the time comes. There is not enough that can be said about the season J.D. Martinez has had, along with Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi. The Red Sox can score runs in multiple ways, without having to rely on the long-ball, like the Yankees. The trio is expensive to roster, but they should pay-off value in a fantastic matchup.

Los Angels Dodgers 
Even though the Dodgers are raking right now, they will go underowned, once again. Being a late-night game, on a 14 game slate, there are plenty of east-coast teams to look at. They also do not have an implied total as of now, but they are traveling to a pitcher friendly park. However, Angels Stadium lowered the right-field wall in the offseason, making it much easier to hit home runs for lefties. As we know, hitters like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Yasmani Grandal can easily hit Felix Pena long enough to go deep. The Dodgers come in as my fifth favorite overall stack for runs scored, but the ownership bumps them up in GPP’s.

Arizona Diamondbacks 
This is more of a gut call more than what hard, advanced statistics show. Joey Lucchesi has 58 innings pitched in MLB in his young career. He has faced 185 right-handed batters this season and owns a .322 wOBA with 10 home runs allowed. Paul Goldschmidt is an amazing GPP play as a one-off and the rest of the D-Backs are worth a look. They certainly have risk, but will go way underowned and can take advantage of a rookie starting pitcher and sub-par bullpen.

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