MLB Division Preview: NL East

After spending last week previewing the American League, it is now time to delve into the National League starting with the National League East which houses last year’s NL Pennant winners in the New York Mets. The Mets surprised some by winning the division relatively easily as the Nationals were a trendy pick to win the division and even the World Series by some after they won the offseason by signing Max Scherzer. This year the Nationals lost more than they added and do not seem in as good of a position to overtake the Mets, but the lack of competition that will be provided by the Braves and Phillies figures to be remarkably bad. All in all, I do not see much change in this division in the 2016 season.

(Note: Teams in order of finish in 2015)

New York Mets

Top Offseason Move: Resigning OF Yoenis Cespedes

Coming into the offseason no one thought the Mets would end up with Cespedes considering the price tag he was sure to command in the offseason. However none of the suitors loved the idea of investing big in Cespedes, most likely not believing that his stretch in the second half was not sustainable and that he would regress to his previous status as a low on base and average guy with very good power. The contract he signed is reasonable and low on risk for the Mets. A good signing for them until they decided to play him in center field.

Key Departure: 2B Daniel Murphy

The Mets lost very little in the offseason. Daniel Murphy was clearly a loss, but I do not really consider him someone who is irreplacable by any stretch of the imagination. Murphy’s postseason performance was an outlier and the Mets were wise to not match the long-term commitment the Nationals gave him. The Neil Walker trade is a good one year fill in guy, but they will eventually need a better defensive second baseman.

X-Factor: Health of 3B David Wright

Last year Wright missed a lot of time with injury problems and this year the Mets need him to be on the field more. The offense is much improved to the point it is probably the best in the division, but his defense is where the Mets need him most. The other infielders on this team are all below average defensively at best, and Wright is the only guy who could be considered average to plus. He also is a solid five-hole hitter for this team provided he can still hit for average and some pop.

Pitching Staff Rank: 1st

This staff is clearly number one and anyone who says otherwise is insane. They have four guys who could be potential number one starters based on stuff and even results for some of them. Everyone in the MLB is envious of the Mets depth in the rotation and their staff should carry them to at least 90-93 wins, with the potential for 100 if the offense clicks and the defense doesn’t cost them too much.

Lineup Rank: 1st

After piecing together the lineup last year for most of the season this year’s Mets figure to be offensively much improved, but will struggle on defense. Nonetheless, this team has Michael Conforto for a full season and they are hoping Travis D’Arnaud stays healthy behind the plate to actually produce what he is capable of producing.

Washington Nationals

Top Offseason Move: Signing 2B Daniel Murphy

I am hesitant to even call this a top move because I really do not consider Murphy more than a role player on a contending team. Murphy hits pretty well for average, but I am not a fan of his defense and for the most part, his power is average at best. He is a solid player, but not worth investing in and losing a draft pick to sign.

Key Departure: SP Jordan Zimmermann, RP Drew Storen

Losing Zimmermann is going to really hurt this team because he was extremely consistent and could be a top of the rotation type guy. He was also important because of the durability concerns with Stephen Strasburg. I think the loss of Storen will really sting long-term, though. Because the Nationals kept bouncing him back between the closer and setup role, it ruined his confidence and made them feel he was expendable. They will regret blowing it with such a promising reliever, especially after Jonathan Papelbon‘s contract is up after this year.

X-Factor: SP Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg’s durability concerns are a huge issue as he has had injury problems in every season. He also had an ERA in the mid-threes which is well below what he should be posting based on his stuff and command. If Strasburg can pitch to his potential and stay healthy this team will be closer to the Mets than many think. Alas, I am not sure that will happen.

Pitching Staff Rank: 2nd

This staff gets ranked second because their top three guys all have shown flashes of being number one starters. Scherzer is clearly an ace, but the other two has not shown that ace quality consistently. The fourth and fifth starters are unknown qualities right now as they are young and mostly unproven, but the top three is better than most of this division’s staffs.

Lineup Rank: 2nd

This lineup is pretty good when looking at the names on paper, but there are also a lot of guys who have underproduced in the past. They also get a lot of points for having one of the best hitters in baseball in Bryce Harper. Harper had a ridiculously good season last year and he should be getting better each year, which is even scarier. A Ryan Zimmerman bounceback would help this lineup nicely.

Miami Marlins

Top Offseason Move: Signing SP Wei-Yin Chen

I liked the move going out to get Chen to be the number two behind young flamethrower Jose Fernandez because Chen has proved in baseball’s toughest division that he can get guys out. With him going to the worst offensive division in baseball that figures to help his staff even more. His contract sets up as two years and about $20 million and then Chen could opt out, but he would forego about $58 million in the final three years before the vesting option kicks in. If Chen pitches as well as he should, that sets up well for him to do very well his next contract. A win for the Marlins on this contract.

Key Departure: none

The Marlins lost little of note and added a frontline type starter. This team is still stuck in the middle, but overall they didn’t get worse and they capitalized on a slow market for Chen.

X-Factor: SP Jarred Cosart

After the first two guys the rotation here takes a precipitous drop and Cosart is a guy who has the potential to be a good third starter he just didn’t show it last year. If Cosart can regain his electric stuff and pitch up to his capabilities and what he showed early on then the Marlins could potentially win above 80 games.

Pitching Staff Rank: 3rd

The Marlins have a weakness in their rotation that was lessened with the signing of Chen, but they still need help from the bottom three spots. Tom Koehler, Cosart, and Edwin Jackson are the most likely guys to round out the rotation with David Phelps, Adam Conley, and Justin Nicolino rounding out the hopefuls for the fifth starter spot. Nicolino has the track amongst the last few for the last spot, but either way, they will need some people pitching above expectations because this rotation doesn’t look too promising.

Lineup Rank: 3rd

The Marlins lineup is pretty good with Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton being the two all-star caliber players in the lineup currently. Martin Prado is a solid guy and Marcell Ozuna has a lot of power that has not been tapped into. If Ozuna can find his way this year and Justin Bour hits well and can handle himself against lefties this lineup could be better than most think.

Atlanta Braves

Top Offseason Move: Acquisition of SS Dansby Swanson

The trade of Shelby Miller was not shocking, but what was shocking was the value the Braves were able to get back for him. Swanson is a former number one overall pick and is currently viewed as one of the top prospects in the game with his all-around abilities being praised. They also got Ender Inciarte who could be a future trade chip or a solid young player in the outfield. Swanson though in a couple years will be a potential face of this franchise.

Key Departure: SS Andrelton Simmons, SP Shelby Miller

The loss of Simmons will hurt their defense, and the loss of Miller will seriously weaken their already questionable starting rotation. Getting Erick Aybar back in the trade helps with some offensive production, but he is a below average defensive shortstop. People in Atlanta now will finally figure out how valuable Simmon’s defense actually was.

X-Factor: SP Bud Norris

The Braves rotation is a mess with just Julio Teheran providing reliable innings thus far. Norris is a guy who has performed well in the past and has provided innings for both the Astros and the Orioles until he fell off a cliff and got DFA’d last year. If he can regain his form from Houston or Baltimore it will help their younger guys tremendously.

Pitching Staff Rank: 4th

As mentioned above this staff is in disarray. They are still retooling and rebuilding. This team has some young talent in the minors, but it needs time to bring them up and form the young nucleus, similar to the Astros from a few years ago. This staff has Bud Norris as their number two and Williams Perez as their number four. This team needs help.

Lineup Rank: 4th

This lineup may be better than some think with Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis providing some decent offensive output. However other than that there are question marks abound. Will Hector Olivera hit and can he play left field? Can Erick Aybar hit like he did years ago in Los Angeles? Will A.J. Pierzynski be able to continue his production from last year? These all need answering.

Philadelphia Phillies

Top Offseason Move: Players acquired in CP Ken Giles trade

The Phillies did the right thing by capitalizing on a team’s desperate need to gain a closer who is not a financial burden by selling Giles to the Astros. Giles was a very good asset but still needs to prove himself one more year for me to buy in even remotely to what the value the Phillies got in return. The Phillies got Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, and Brett Oberholtzer back among others and those three represent very good value with Appel representing a buy low former top prospect.

Key Departure: P Ken Giles

Despite the great haul they got in return the Phillies still gave up a very good young reliever and they will miss Giles this year for sure as the bullpen in Philly features no sure things and they are banking on the return to form of former Diamondback David Hernandez. This will sting, but the future assets will make it worth while.

X-Factor: SP Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson hasn’t been the same guy in a long time, but the Phillies gave up virtually nothing for him so they don’t have a significant investment in him. However if Hellickson can be a remotely good pitcher, they could sell him off at the deadline to further replenish a depleted system, or even keep him to stabilize the rotation if they believe the production is real and can continue.

Pitching Staff Rank: 5th

This staff is very weak and I do not see how they produce an even average starting staff. Aaron Nola, Velasquez, and Oberholtzer represent intriguing young guys that could pitch this year, but Hellickson and Charlie Morton at the top of the rotation is a sad duo to rely on to win you games.

Lineup Rank: 5th

This lineup isn’t terrible I suppose, but it certainly isn’t a league average offense. Maikel Franco will produce and he is a future all-star, and Ryan Howard isn’t terrible. Meanwhile, Odubel Herrera is a solid piece in center field, but the other players on this team are questionable big leaguers and this offense like the pitching will struggle.

 

Projected Division Finish:

1. New York Mets

2. Washington Nationals

3. Miami Marlins

4. Atlanta Braves

5. Philadelphia Phillies

 

 

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